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Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday tips: League One play-off best bets and preview
Two of Sky Bet League One's biggest clubs meet in a huge play-off semi-final first leg as Sunderland host Sheffield Wednesday. Michael Beardmore thinks things could get feisty.
Football betting tips: League One play-offs
1pt Jay Matete to be shown a card at 4/1 (Bet365)
0.5pt Liam Palmer to be shown a card at 6/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Danny Batth to be shown a card at 8/1 (Unibet)
It’s a fixture that graced the Premier League for many years – but Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday are now doing battle over two legs just for a chance to return to the Sky Bet Championship.
For the Owls, it would be an instant reprieve following relegation last season, while the Black Cats are facing the prospect of a fifth consecutive campaign in the third tier if they do not prevail.
At least one – perhaps both – will remain in the doldrums but who? This is a tricky semi-final first leg to call given how evenly-matched these sides have been all season and, particularly, in recent weeks.
Both clubs spent spells outside the top six but late bursts of form – Sunderland unbeaten in 13, the Owls with 14 wins in their final 20 games – sealed a play-off spot, just a point separating them.
Kick-off time: 19:45, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Sunderland 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Sheff Wed 17/10
Sunderland have emotional scars to deal with, of course, losing in the play-offs – the 2020-21 semi-final to Lincoln and 2018-19 final to Charlton – in two of the past three seasons.
The respective league meetings this season make for interesting reading – Wednesday running out 3-0 winners at Hillsborough in November only to be smashed 5-0 in the north east a few weeks later.
I’d be hugely surprised if this first leg yielded such a one-sided result – this is a massive, massive game for both clubs and I expect caution to be the order of the day.
Each team has played some expansive attacking football to climb into the top six but, now they are there, it would not be surprising should they, even if only in the first leg, go a bit more safety-first.
Having said that, Sunderland have netted 79 league goals this season, Wednesday 78, so both have firepower, making the unders/overs markets as dangerously unpredictable as the outright result.
There is one market that stands out in terms of value – cards, with both sides in the top 10 (Sunderland fourth, Owls 10th) of League One’s ill-discipline table. With so much at stake, tackles will fly in and I’ve identified three players at big prices.
The first is one to watch the teamsheets for – but if he starts, then the 4/1 Bet365 offer on JAY MATETE TO BE SHOWN A CARD is mightily appealing.
The midfielder has been booked five times in 14 appearances since joining from Fleetwood in January – across his career he has 22 cards in 62 games, averaging a card every 210 minutes.
From a Wednesday perspective, combative midfielders Massimo Luongo and George Byers are both short in the card markets, six yellows each this term and topping the Owls’ tackles and fouls figures. But, for a touch of value, I’m going with a player not far behind them, utility man LIAM PALMER TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 6/1.
He’s been cautioned five times this season, including two in his past eight games and his tackle rate has flown up to 2.23 per game during Wednesday’s past 13 matches (1.46 previously).
Finally, I can’t ignore the 8/1 on Sunderland defender DANNY BATTH TO BE SHOWN A CARD – the 31-year-old has picked up six yellows in 22 appearances for Stoke and the Black Cats this season.
Against the speedy Saido Berahino or robust Lee Gregory, he could be liable to incur the ref’s wrath.
Sunderland v Sheff Wed best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Jay Matete to be shown a card at 4/1 (Bet365)
- 0.5pt Liam Palmer to be shown a card at 6/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Danny Batth to be shown a card at 8/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1745 BST (03/05/22)
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