Premier League free betting tips: Wolves v Tottenham; Leeds v Burnley | Best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Sunday's Premier League

1pt Harry Kane to score a header in Wolves v Tottenham 12/1 - EXCLUSIVE Sky Bet Price Boost only available through this link

1pt Harry Kane to have 1+ headed shots on target at 4/1

0.5pt Harry Kane to have 2+ headed shots on target at 50/1

1pt Burnley to beat Leeds at 19/5

1pt James Tarkowski to score a header in Leeds v Burnley at 25/1

0.5pt Ben Mee to score anytime at 20/1

0.5pt Ben Mee to score first at 60/1

1pt Brighton to have more corners than West Ham at 11/8

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Wolves v Tottenham betting tips

• 19:15 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
• Match odds: Home 13/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 11/10

Michael Beardmore

“A much better manager than a player,” Jose Mourinho joked about his former Porto back-up goalkeeper Nuno Espirito Santo last year – but as apprentice faces sorcerer on Sunday evening, which of the two has more to prove right now?

Nuno is arguably experiencing his most testing spell as Wolves manager to date, a run of just seven points from the last 21 available has seen them slip into the Premier League’s bottom half.

It’s far from disastrous, of course – no one is seriously expecting them to drop much further than 11th but without injured striker Raul Jimenez, a repeat of the successive top-seven finishes they've achieved since returning to the top flight looks a tough ask.

‘The Special One’, meanwhile, has slowly nurtured Spurs back into the realm of being genuine title contenders, but with leaders Liverpool back firing on all cylinders again they cannot afford many more slip-ups.

It’s an indication of just how tight the top of the Premier League is that Tottenham slipped from first to sixth after a winless week comprising a draw at Crystal Palace and losses to Liverpool and Leicester.

The inevitable ‘Spursy’ and ‘Tottenham doing a Tottenham’ jibes have perhaps understandably resurfaced after Mourinho’s men relinquished their strong position but only against Leicester were they noticeably below-par.

Having initially responded well to win at Arsenal after Jimenez was stretchered off with a season-ending skull fracture, Wolves, meanwhile, have suffered three defeats in four – and found the net just three times.

But the win sandwiched in between those defeats, a hard-fought come-from-behind 2-1 victory against Chelsea, shows it would be foolish to discount Nuno’s men from toppling another big gun.

With that in mind, I’m looking elsewhere for a value bet – particularly to Tottenham and England’s main man, Harry Kane.

Kane is experiencing a comparatively lean spell by his high standards with just three goals in his past seven games - he did find the net against Stoke in the Carabao Cup in midweek - but he’s still in the thick of the chances, with 13 efforts on goal in his past three league matches.

Five of those have been headers so our exclusive Sky Bet Price Boost of 12/1 for Kane to score with his head is superb value. He has scored two headers this season and only three players in Premier League history have netted more headed goals than his 24.

Finding value on Kane in the regular scoring markets is nigh on impossible nowadays (18/5 tops to net first, 7/5 anytime) so that price really is something. And so are these next two.

Sky Bet’s market on headed shots on target adds an extra angle for us - he’s 4/1 for one or more and a massive 50/1 for two or more. I think both are worth a play.

Kane had two headers on target at Crystal Palace recently and sent two great headed opportunities off target against Liverpool and Leicester – he’s clearly getting in the right positions and is averaging one headed chance per game this campaign.

When you factor in that Wolves are not as defensively solid as they were last season – they have conceded three headers in the past five games – we can use our head, and Harry’s, to profit here.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds 15/2)

Wolves v Tottenham: Best bets

Harry Kane to score a header 12/1 - EXCLUSIVE Sky Bet Price Boost only available through this link

Harry Kane to have 1+ headed shots on target at 4/1

Harry Kane to have 2+ headed shots on target at 50/1

Leeds v Burnley betting tips

• 12:00 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
• Match odds: Home 7/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 7/2

Joe Townsend

A clash of cultures, merely just a clash of styles? Or am I being harsh and far too simplistic?

Whichever way you look at it, Leeds and Burnley play football in very different, but similarly effective, ways. Whoever manages to adapt to the other the better will come out on top on Sunday.

Consistency hasn't been a strong suit for Marcelo Bielsa's side this season, with them just as likely to win 5-2 as they are to lose 6-2. They did, in successive games over the space of five days against Newcastle and Manchester United.

I am willing to stake close to all I have on this not being being another over 6.5 goals encounter.

Burnley favour the tight game, relying on a superb defence to give them the platform to grapple their way to victory. After a slow start to the season, Sean Dyche's side have successfully returned to that old, familiar blueprint.

Their opening 12 games yielded just 10 points, but their most recent seven have brought 12 - the Clarets are one of the top flight's in-form teams. They have lost once in seven, and that was to Manchester City.

To see them priced at odds-against on the double chance, and 7/2 to win brings joy to my heart this festive season as that simply doesn't stack up.

If there is one type of team that Bielsa's Leeds - 7/10 to collect three points - struggles against it's one that is happy to sit deep and rely on its players' determination to stoically defend.

Wolves, Leicester and West Ham have all visited Elland Road this season and seen under 36% possession; they won 1-0, 4-1 and 2-1 respectively.

The double chance price is solid, but the value is in backing Burnley to continue their strong form and deliver us a 19/5 away win.

Leeds' other major weakness is defending set-pieces, an issue focused on in this week's Premier League: Punting Pointers.

They have conceded more goals from those situations than any other top-flight team this season. An injury crisis at centre-back means it's unlikely to be a problem that is solved any time soon.

An opposition central defender has found the net in each of Leeds' last four games, and the prices on that becoming a five-match streak are huge.

As first goalscorer options it's tough to turn down both James Tarkowski (40/1) and Ben Mee (60/1), although if you're looking to back each-way it's only worth it with the former - Mee's anytime price of 20/1 is significantly better than the 1/3 odds you'd get from any bookies offering an each-way option.

We really are spoilt for choice, as Sky Bet have also boosted Tarkowski to 25/1 to score a header.

This is the season for generosity though right? Small stakes punts all round. Begrudgingly, I'll restrain myself and just stick to the header tip for Tarkowski.

Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Leeds v Burnley: Best bets

Burnley to win at 19/5

James Tarkowski to score a header at 25/1

Ben Mee to score anytime at 20/1

Ben Mee to score first at 60/1

West Ham v Brighton betting tips

• 14:15 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
• Match odds: Home 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 2/1

Jake Pearson

Victory at Stamford Bridge on Monday would have seen West Ham record a third successive away win in the Premier League, but a 3-0 defeat means they are now winless in two and in need of a result.

The scoreline was arguably a little harsh. The Hammer played well for large spells, taking the game to Chelsea with the score 1-0, but David Moyes’ men ultimately lacked quality in the final third, unable to create any real opportunity of note.

This is something that West Ham have struggled with over the last couple of weeks, creating chances equating to just 0.57 Expected Goals For (xGF) against Chelsea and 0.61xGF against Crystal Palace; only a spectacular Sebastian Haller overhead kick delivered a point on the latter occasion.

Worryingly for Moyes, it is not just in the opposition’s final third that the Irons' productivity levels have dropped, it is in their own as well.

Arthur Masuaku underwent knee surgery on December 12, meaning West Ham were forced to abandon the 3-4-3 that had served them so well in the early part of the season, and adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation.

In the three games without Masuaku, five goals have been conceded, an average of 1.67 per match, as opposed to the 1.27 with a back three.

For these reasons then, it is difficult to make a solid case for a West Ham victory at the current prices, but Brighton don’t exactly jump off the page either, winless in five and teetering just above the relegation zone.

The Seagulls play lovely, attractive football nowadays, but they lack killer instinct, a mean streak, and this was clear for all to see in their 1-1 draw with Sheffield United at the weekend.

Even before John Lundstram’s red card Brighton were creating chance after chance against Chris Wilder’s men, but where was the ruthlessness?

Nothing emphasised that better than Alireza Jahanbakhsh crashing a header against the crossbar from all of two yards out in the dying seconds.

We all know that Brighton are an entirely different to Chris Hughton's team of 18 months ago. Their possession-based approach embodies Graham Potter’s philosophy, and it is this approach that will lead us to our bet.

Brighton have averaged 53% possession in their Premier League matches this season, the seventh highest in the division, higher than Tottenham, Leicester and Everton.

West Ham, on the other hand, have averaged just 46% this term, the sixth lowest in the league.

Now, you probably didn’t need these numbers to conclude that Brighton will likely see more of the ball, and while more possession does not always equal three points, it does suggest an aspect of dominance.

It stands to reason that the team that wins the match will often have more corners, but it also stands to reason that the team that wins the match will also often have more possession.

If we concede that Brighton will have more of the ball, irrelevant of the result, then we can assume that they will also have more corners.

That is not how this market has been priced up however, with the bookmakers making West Ham the odds-on favourites in the corner betting.

The market looks to have been priced up based on each team’s probability of winning, rather than the actual state of the game.

Add to the mix that Brighton have won more corners than their opponents in 11 of their 14 Premier League matches this term, and 11/8 for Graham Potter’s men to have more corners than West Ham begins to look way too big.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

West Ham v Brighton: Best bet

Brighton to have more corners than West Ham at 11/8

Liverpool v West Brom betting tips

• 16:30 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 1/9 | Draw 9/1 | Away 28/1

Odds correct at 11:50 GMT 24/12/20

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