Premier League betting tips: Preview, predictions & best bets for Sunday including Liverpool v Aston Villa and Southampton v Manchester City

Recommended bets

1pt Liverpool on -2 handicap at 5/2

1pt Riyad Mahrez to score anytime at 9/5

0.5pt Allan Saint-Maximin to score anytime at 17/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Burnley v Sheffield United

• 1200 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

A game we will be leaving off the staking plan due to the unpredictability of both sides since the return to action.

Sheffield United were uncharacteristically poor and flat in the first couple of games back, looking like a team with second season syndrome, then they pull off an excellent performance and look back to their old selves in a home win over Tottenham (albeit with the timely help of VAR).

Burnley, meanwhile, seem to have a couple of off-field issues with Sean Dyche's long-term future in doubt, but they have won successive games since a thrashing to Man City on their first game back.

If the Blades can replicate that Spurs performance with another excellent display on the road, as they have so often away from home this season, then it will be hard not to side with them. There were plenty of positives to take, including a standout performance from Ben Osborn in midfield on his first start in the Premier League this season.

The main draw is the points being shared and it is hard to get away from that.

The Blades have dawn eight of their 16 away games, losing just four, and 10th-placed Burnley are only two points behind them so they may stay tight to save surrendering all three points and being leapfrogged in the process.

Going straight down the middle gets you a best price of 2/1 and is a little more appealing than the 21/50 double chance, but this is, in truth, one we would rather sit out.

Prediction: Burnley 1-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)

Best bet: Draw at 2/1

Opta stats

• Following their 3-0 win at Bramall Lane in the reverse fixture, Sheffield United are looking to do the league double over Burnley for the first time since 2005-06 in the Championship, while they last beat Burnley twice in the same top-flight season back in 1967-68.
• Burnley are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), keeping a clean sheet in three of those. Meanwhile, against promoted sides Burnley have lost just one of their last 10 at Turf Moor (W6 D3), though it was in their last such match versus Aston Villa (1-2).
• Sheffield United have lost their last two away league games, as many as they had in their first 14 on the road in the Premier League this season. They’ve shipped six goals in these two defeats, more than they had in their previous six away from home (5).
• Sheffield United’s 3-1 win over Spurs was only the third time this season they had scored three goals in a Premier League game, although one of the others was a 3-0 win over Burnley. The Blades haven’t scored three times in consecutive top-flight games since May/August 1993 (4-2 vs Chelsea, 3-1 vs Swindon Town).
• Only Liverpool have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Burnley this season (13), with no side having kept more at home than the Clarets (8). This is their highest number of clean sheets in a top-flight campaign since 1954-55 (16).
• Burnley have used just 62 substitutes in their 32 Premier League games this season (fewer than any other side), and just four of the 15 available to them since the league restarted.
• No team has scored more goals via substitutes in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (7, level with Manchester City), with striker Lys Mousset scoring three of those, the joint-most in the division.

Newcastle v West Ham

• 1415 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Talking of unpredictable teams, who could call a Newcastle game right now?!

From having the worst expected goals rate going into the enforced break, to coming back and scoring eight goals in three games, thrashing Sheff United and Bournemouth and drawing with Aston Villa. Staggering!

They impressively dispatched a poor Bournemouth team on Wednesday and here they welcome a West Ham team which sealed a surprise win over Chelsea on the same night.

It was good to see loan midfielder Tomas Soucek, tipped in our 11 to watch series, on the score sheet for the first time. Expect the Czech midfielder to contribute a couple more before the season's end - he was a towering threat from set pieces and Cesar Azpilicueta could not cope, while he makes dangerous late runs into the box - and he is 11/2 to find the back of the net again here.

But it is another anytime goalscorer we would like to back with a small stakes fancy and that is on Allan Saint-Maximin at a best price of 17/4.

Newcastle's French winger, another man in that 11 to watch feature, stole the show with a hat-trick of assists in their win at the Vitality.

He was in red-hot form, with his set up for Sean Longstaff (below) just typifying what he is capable of. What is more impressive, is it all came inside an hour before he was substituted as Bruce looks to keep him fresh.

He is 3/1 to get another assist here, but the price on him scoring is more appealing. He is far from the finished product, with shooting still a little bit off at times, but once he adds that to his game and continues to adapt to the Premier League, he will be a true star for Newcastle and could be worth significantly more than the £16m they reportedly paid to Nice last summer.

The 23-year-old has scored since the restart, at home to Sheff United, and has had six shots in those three appearances.

With confidence high and West Ham's defence, which has conceded at least two goals in their last three games, could fail to deal with him.

A hopeful shot, but Saint-Maximin is flying, as are Newcastle, therefore the anytime price carries particular appeal.

Prediction: Newcastle 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bet: Allan Saint-Maximin to score anytime at 17/4

SKY BET SCORECAST BOOST: Allan Saint-Maximin to score first and Newcastle to win 2-0 at 8/1

Opta stats

• Newcastle United are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W3 D2), their best run since going undefeated in their last six games of the 2015-16 season under Rafael Benítez.
• Newcastle have had 17 different goalscorers in the Premier League this season – their most in a single campaign in the competition, and more than any other side so far in 2019-20.
• Before the enforced break, no side had scored fewer Premier League goals than Newcastle in 2019-20 (25), with the Magpies averaging 0.9 goals-per-game and scoring 3+ goals in a game just once. Since the restart, only Man City (13) have scored more than Newcastle (8), with the Magpies netting at least three times in two of their three games while averaging 2.7 goals-per-game.
• West Ham have lost their last seven away Premier League matches; the Hammers haven’t lost eight in a row on the road since December 2006.
• Having been involved in two goals in his first 17 Premier League appearances for Newcastle, Allan Saint-Maximin has been involved in five in his last four games (2 goals, 3 assists). Against Bournemouth, he became the first Magpies player to assist three goals in a Premier League game since Moussa Sissoko in October 2015 against Norwich City.
• In 34 league starts this season for Hull City and West Ham, Jarrod Bowen has been directly in 26 goals (17 goals, 9 assists), with Bowen assisting twice in the Hammers’ 3-2 victory over Chelsea last time out.

Liverpool v Aston Villa

• 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

The fact Man City won on Thursday was not that shocking, but the manner of their victory was.

Newly-crowned Premier League champions Liverpool were simply not at the races and maybe their celebrations last week played a part. Jurgen Klopp was not at all happy, while defending his players in public he was particularly sharp with Geoff Shreeves in the immediate aftermath and he was still stewing on Friday (below).

It was incredibly uncharacteristic of Klopp this season and very uncharacteristic of his side and, whether or not you expect them to ease off for the rest of the season, you have got to feel for Aston Villa on Sunday as an immediate reaction is certainly expected. To remind us all why they are 19/20 champions by a long way.

They do, after all, still have records to go after. While the points total may not be their top priority, they can achieve a perfect home record which has not been done in the top flight since 1892.

The Reds have won an incredible 23 straight home games at Anfield, and need three more wins this season against Villa, Burnley and Chelsea to make history.

It will be hard for Villa to upset the apple cart while damage limitation is risky when there is no stopping the rampant Reds.

In Dean Smith's defence, they came so close to beating them in the reverse fixture at Villa Park as a late comeback helped Liverpool win, but at Anfield it could be quite comfortable. Just ask the last visitors, Palace, who conceded four. In 16 home games, they have scored 44 and conceded just 12 goals.

With such a reaction here, the 5/2 on a -2 handicap looks like a great price. Backing them at -1 at just under evens was nearly as tempting.

Since football returned, we have seen the bigger sides win comfortably due to their technical quality and strength in depth. Man City have scored nine in two home games, Man United have hit three without reply in back-to-back games, Liverpool already hit four in that Eagles game and even Arsenal have dished out a four-goal thrashing, at home to Norwich.

Sorry Villa fans, but it is difficult to envisage anything but from the champions here.

Prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 16/1)

Best bet: Liverpool on -2 handicap at 5/2 (Betfair, PaddyPower)

Opta stats

• Liverpool have won their last four Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, by an aggregate score of 13-3.
• Five of Aston Villa’s last six Premier League wins against Liverpool have been at Anfield, in a run stretching back to April 1999.
• Aston Villa have lost 13 of their last 15 away Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table (D2), since beating Leeds 2-1 in January 2000.
• This will be Liverpool’s first home league match since being confirmed Premier League champions for the first time – the Reds are unbeaten in 56 home league games, winning the last 23 in a row.
• Aston Villa are winless in eight Premier League games (D2 L6), the longest current winless run in the competition.
• Liverpool have lost just one of their last 24 home Premier League matches against teams in the relegation zone (W17 D6), losing 3-2 at Anfield against Swansea City in January 2017.
• Mohamed Salah has scored 49 Premier League home goals in just 59 appearances for Liverpool and Chelsea combined. Should Salah score in this fixture, only Alan Shearer (47 games) would have taken fewer appearances to reach 50 home goals in the Premier League.
• In 16 games and 1254 minutes played in home games this season, Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has had 49 shots, 16 on target and an expected goals value of nearly seven. However, the Brazilian is yet to score a league goal at Anfield this term.

Southampton Manchester City

• 1900 BST kick-off on BBC One

Southampton's last seven meetings in all competitions with Man City have resulted in seven City wins, with an aggregate score of 20-5. A positive for the Saints is the fact they have scored in the last four meetings.

After seeing Pep Guardiola's side since the restart, they have got to be worried. The Citizens look incredibly sharp as they look to add the FA Cup and Champions League to their Carabao Cup for the season, as well as wrapping up a second-placed finish.

They dispatched Liverpool to remind the title-winners what could be in store again next season as they look to regain their crown. As well as that, they also earned comfortable clean sheet wins over Arsenal, Burnley and Newcastle (FA Cup), while it was defensive errors that cost them at Chelsea last week.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have beaten Chelsea, Tottenham, Leicester and drawn with Arsenal and Man United this term, but stopping City without any home backing is an incredibly big ask.

There are some nice prices in the hosts' favour if you fancy them to get on the score sheet (or 17/2 to win), but the preference is to go on a goalscorer for the visitors.

Leroy Sane left for Bayern on Friday and he will not be missed in the immediate future with both Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez thriving. Teen star Foden is 3/1 to score anytime here for his fifth goal in four Premier League games.

But Mahrez, at 9/5, looks an excellent option. The Algerian will be hoping to regain his place after starting on the bench against Liverpool which, given Guardiola's heavy rotation, is likely. Mahrez seems to go under the radar in City's star-studded squad, but he has been an excellent signing from Leicester and he continues to improve with growing confidence.

The 29-year-old has nine goals and eight assists in the league this term, with an impressive passing accuracy of 90%, and an average shots-per-game rate of 2.1.

He has had six efforts since returning from the break, two goals against Burnley, and he is a real threat from that right-hand side, cutting in onto his dangerous left foot.

Knowing it is coming is one thing, but his twisting and turning at pace is so difficult to stop and Ryan Bertrand could be in for a tricky evening. Maybe even having Nathan Redmond double up at times.

City scorers are usually pretty short, but 9/5 on this attacker is worth taking when they are scoring for fun. It might not be a rout, but Mahrez is key to unlocking the Saints' defence.

Prediction: Southampton 0-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Riyad Mahrez to score anytime at 9/5

Opta stats

• Manchester City haven’t lost three consecutive away league games since a run of four in April 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Manager Pep Guardiola has never lost three consecutive away league games before in his managerial career.
• None of Southampton’s last 12 Premier League games have ended level, with Saints winning six and losing six. Just four of Southampton’s Premier League games have ended level this season, the fewest of any side outside the top two.
• Manchester City’s 4-0 win over Liverpool was their 25th Premier League win by four or more goals since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016-17 – seven more than any other club in that time.
• Since his Premier League debut for Manchester City in September 2015, Kevin De Bruyne has created more chances (432) and assisted more goals (62) than any other player. He has registered 17 Premier League assists this season, just one shy of his season’s best of 18 in 2016-17.
• Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored the opening goal in eight different Premier League games this season, more than any other player.
• Manchester City’s Phil Foden has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 17 appearances in all competitions (6 goals, 8 assists), despite only starting 10 of those games. Among Englishmen in the Premier League, only Trent Alexander-Arnold (14) and Bukayo Saka (11) have more assists in all competitions this season than Foden (9).
• Against Watford, Southampton midfielder James Ward-Prowse scored his sixth direct free-kick in the Premier League for the Saints – only Matt Le Tissier has scored more in the Premier League for Southampton (7).

Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 03/07/20

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