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Sporting Life's Premier League preview package and free tips

Premier League tips: Betting previews, predictions & best bets for Sunday's action, including Arsenal v Chelsea

By George Pitts

Football

Sun December 29, 2019 · 5y ago

Mark your card for Sunday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.

Recommended bets

2pts Sheffield United to have 3+ shots on target v Man City at 11/10

1pt Over 3.5 total goals in Arsenal v Chelsea at 7/5

0.5pt Draw and under 3.5 total goals in Liverpool v Wolves at 6/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

*Click links to add selections to betslip*

Liverpool v Wolves

1630 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Wolves celebrate against Manchester City

Wolves' festive fixtures have not been too kind. Man City on the 27th and Liverpool on the 29th.

They played out a thriller and completed the double over the Premier League champions at Molineux on Thursday, but to pull off another shock just 48 hours later is a big ask.

We got some winners from that victory - Wolves in the handicap market, with a two-goal head start and then a +4 on the corners - while no shocks are expected as such, the visitors can at least take some points off Jurgen Klopp's men.

The Reds, after seeing Man City drop points again, could rotate to provide fresher legs in a hectic month and, with Wolves playing so soon after their last game, this match may struggle to find its flow and under 2.5 total goals at just over 6/4 is appealing.

But Wolves are draw specialists. With Europa League football testing their squad already this season, Nuno Espirito Santo's side have had to get used to playing two games in a relatively short space of time.

They have already accumulated nine draws in 19 matches and, with the multiple factors weighed up, a draw looks generously priced at just under 5/1.

Chuck in under 3.5 goals and you have a very tempting 6/1 that is surely worth a small stake. This Liverpool side have been fantastic but, with such a lead and a tough game also to come on New Year's Day and this being their ninth fixture in December, the table toppers can be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas a little.

Prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bet: Draw and under 3.5 total goals at 6/1

Key stats

Liverpool celebrate against Leicester

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 49 Premier League home games (W39 D10). If they avoid defeat here it would be just the third unbeaten home run of 50+ games in English top-flight history (Chelsea 86, 2004-2008 and Liverpool 63, 1978-1980).
Wolves are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away games (W3 D4). However, their last two defeats on the road in the competition have been on Merseyside (0-2 v Liverpool in May, 2-3 v Everton in September).
Liverpool have won 16 consecutive Premier League home games, scoring at least twice in every victory (49 goals in total).
Liverpool have scored 87 Premier League goals in 2019 – in top-flight history, only in 1928 (88) and 1982 (106) have they scored more in a single calendar year.
Since the start of last season, Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold has provided 20 assists in the Premier League, at least three more than any other player.
Raul Jiménez has been involved in seven of Wolves’ 13 away goals in the Premier League this season (4 goals, 3 assists), including six of their last 10 on the road.

Manchester City v Sheffield United

1800 GMT kick-off

Man City celebrate Riyad Mahrez's goal against Leicester at the Etihad

There is never a great time to play Manchester City and it is difficult to actually decide whether this is a slightly better or worse time.

After the defeat to Wolves, Pep Guardiola conceded that 'Liverpool's advantage is too big' and the Spaniard is not too pleased about having to play again just under 48 hours later.

But City have just lost and they usually react well to defeats. Another positive is the fact they do not have too long to stew over this one.

Sheffield United, meanwhile, are amazingly still unbeaten away from home in the Premier League, winning three and drawing six matches. They can't continue that here...can they?

All good runs come to an end eventually but the Blades will certainly put in a shift. They have proved to be unfazed by trips to Chelsea and Tottenham, while beating Arsenal and running Liverpool close at home.

Whether they can get the result or not, they will at least look to test Claudio Bravo, with Ederson suspended. The Chilean goalkeeper has kept just one clean sheet in eight appearances this season (including the Community Shield) and with the City defence in front of him, the champions are far from convincing at the back.

Chris Wilder's men have some great odds in their favour, especially Sky Bet's shots on target market. They are odds against to register just 3+ shots on target, which they average on the road this season anyway, 11/4 to have four or more and 6/1 to have at least five.

With the benefit of 24 hours more rest, City licking their wounds and the belief Wilder instils in his men, the 11/10 on them to test Bravo a minimum of just three times is too good to pass up.

Prediction: Man City 2-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Best bet: Sheffield United 3+ shots on target at 11/10

Key stats

Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 37 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W33 D4) since a 0-2 loss against Reading in February 2007. Only Chelsea (43 games between 2001-2015) and Man Utd (40 games between 2002-2015) have had longer such runs in the competition.
Manchester City have dropped points in three of their nine Premier League home games this season (W6 D1 L2), as many as in their previous 37 at the Etihad (W34 D1 L2).
If Sheffield United avoid defeat, they will equal the English top-flight record for longest unbeaten away run from the start of a season for a promoted side (10, level with Burnley in 1947-48).
Sergio Agüero is Man City’s highest Premier League goalscorer in home games this season with five goals, this despite the Argentine not finding the net at the Etihad since November 2nd.
Sheffield United’s David McGoldrick has had more shots (34) and shots on target (16) without scoring than any other Premier League player this season. He also has the highest expected goals total of any player not the find the net (6.1).

Arsenal v Chelsea

1400 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Frank Lampard: Chelsea boss watches his side against Southampton at Stamford Bridge

Arsenal will be hoping to get a result on Mikel Arteta's first game in charge at the Emirates as Chelsea look to bounce back from defeat at home to relegation-fighting Southampton.

If the Blues perform like they did in north London last Sunday, they should be confident of coming away with three points. Frank Lampard got his tactics spot on as they dismantled Jose Mourinho's Tottenham and he may be tempted to stick with the 3-4-3 formation here.

A lot of this weekend's games come just 48 hours after the Boxing Day clashes, but these two clubs have the benefit of an extra day's rest - and they are used to Thursday-Sunday football due to Europa League involvement.

Arteta's first game at Bournemouth came after only a couple of days on the training ground and, while it is early days to see a huge change in his tactics just yet, the new manager bounce could see Arsenal show a bit of fight against their London rivals.

Mikel Arteta earn a 1-1 with Bournemouth in his first game as Arsenal boss

Mikel Arteta earned a 1-1 with Bournemouth in his first game as Arsenal boss

Considering the fact Arsenal have conceded at least two goals in their last three home matches, Chelsea's overall attacking approach and both sides' poor defences on show, there could well be goals in this one.

Last season they met three times, the other in the Europa League final, and their clashes produced 12 goals in total. In the season before, they played out an entertaining 2-2 draw at the Emirates.

The 7/5 available on over 3.5 goals catches the eye and allows us to enjoy the action without relying on who comes out on top - as long as the ball frequently hits the back of the net.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)

Best bet: Over 3.5 total goals at 7/5

Key stats

Chelsea lost this exact fixture 0-2 in January – they’ve not lost consecutive league games against Arsenal since October 2011, while they last lost back-to-back away league games against them in October 2003 (a run of three).
In all competitions, Arsenal have conceded at least twice in each of their last four home games, their longest such run since December 1965 (a run of five).
None of Chelsea’s nine away league games this season have ended level (W6 L3), with only Liverpool having won more games on the road in the Premier League this season than the Blues.
28 of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s 44 Premier League goals for Arsenal have been scored on Sundays, the highest ratio of any player with at least 40 goals in the competition.

Odds correct as of 1300 GMT on 28/12/19

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