Mark your card for Sunday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
1pt Watford draw no bet v Man United at 23/10
1pt Emerson to have 2+ total shots in Tottenham v Chelsea at 9/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
*Click links to add selections to betslip*
Watford v Manchester United
- 1400 kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
Nigel Pearson took charge of his first game as Watford manager last week and it was always going to be a tough ask at Liverpool.
Since being named as Quique Sanchez Flores' full-time replacement, he has now had two full weeks on the training ground with the players and they will be up for this clash, as will the Vicarage Road crowd.
A regular criticism of Watford this season has been not taking their chances - they have actually created plenty and should really have scored at Anfield.
They have hit the back of the net just nine times, from 197 shots, in 17 games so far - the next worst is 15 (surprisingly, by ninth-placed Crystal Palace) - and over the course of the season Pearson will be keen to change their shot-to-goal conversion rate that currently stands at just 4.7%.
But we know this squad is capable. They reached the FA Cup final last season and started the 18/19 campaign brilliantly, looking like a rival to Wolves for seventh. Pearson could be the man to help them turn that corner.
Their visitors Manchester United should be seen as there for the taking. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side have won just two of eight away games in the league so far this term, losing at West Ham, Newcastle and Bournemouth - games where they have been unable to play their counter-attacking style.
With the hosts fired up and United less convincing on the road, the general price of over 2/1 in their favour in a draw no bet is incredibly tempting.
It feels like one of those banana skin fixtures for United against a struggling side and Watford can look to use that new manager bounce.
Prediction: Watford 2-1 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Watford in draw no bet at 23/10
Key stats
- No side are currently on a longer run without a Premier League clean sheet than Manchester United (12 games). The Red Devils last had a longer run without a clean sheet in the top-flight between September 1970-February 1971 (21 games).
- Following their 2-1 win at Man City in their last away game, Man Utd are looking for back-to-back away league wins for the first time since February. They’ve lost just one of their last nine away games against sides starting the day bottom (W7 D1), going down 1-2 against Wolves in February 2011.
- Watford have won just nine points in their first 17 Premier League matches this season; each of the previous nine occasions a team has won fewer than 10 points in their first 17 matches has seen them go on to be relegated.
- Watford have converted just 4.7% of their shots in to goals in the Premier League this season (nine goals from 197 shots); this is the worst ratio by a Premier League side in a single season since Sunderland in 2002-03 (also 4.7%). The Black Cats finished bottom of the table in that campaign.
- Watford boss Nigel Pearson’s only previous home Premier League match against Man Utd was in September 2014, winning 5-3 with Leicester City. Only six managers have won their first two home games against the Red Devils in the Premier League, most recently Antonio Conte in 2017.
- Marcus Rashford has scored 10 Premier League goals this season (one more than Watford) – the last Man Utd player to score more before Christmas in a Premier League campaign was Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2016-17 (11).
Tottenham v Chelsea
The big Super Sunday tie sees Jose Mourinho come up against his former club and his former midfielder Frank Lampard.
It is a game between two sides battling for that last top four spot and Chelsea currently hold the advantage, with a three-point lead over Spurs.
Goals are surely on the cards here - Spurs' five Premier League games under Mourinho's management have produced a total of 21 goals while Chelsea rarely keep clean sheets and love attack under Lampard, with a total of 56 goals scored (at both ends) in their 17 games this term.
With entertainment expected, the preference in terms of tipping is to go for a market which does not rely on the final outcome - allowing us to enjoy the match for what it is.
The price that stood out when looking at the markets was on Chelsea left-back Emerson to have two or more shots.
The Brazilian has worked his way into the reckoning again since the start of November and he offers Lampard's side, like Marcos Alonso, another attacking outlet going forward.
He has had at least one effort in his last four league appearances and had two last time out against Bournemouth.
Considering he is up against Serge Aurier, a player who often gets forward himself, Chelsea could have some joy down the left and Emerson could look to capitalise.
This shots market does not rely on them being on target, so an effort that is wide or blocked suits us fine and the 9/4 price available is worthy of a small play for what should hopefully be a thrilling watch.
Prediction: Spurs 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Emerson 2+ total shots at 9/4
Key stats
- Tottenham have won three of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L2), as many as they had in their previous 20 against them in the competition (W3 D9 L8).
- Chelsea have won just two of their last 13 away league games against Spurs (D5 L6). The Blues had been unbeaten in their 17 top-flight away games against them previously (W11 D6).
- Chelsea have had 53 different Premier League goalscorers against Spurs (excluding own goals), more than any side has had against another in the competition.
- No team has won more Premier League London derby matches than Chelsea (128, level with Arsenal), while only West Ham (100) have lost more such games than Tottenham (87).
- Tottenham have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1), more than they had in their previous 15 in the competition (W3 D6 L6).
- Chelsea have lost four of their last five Premier League matches (W1) – as many as they had in their previous 24 in the competition (W14 D6 L4). The Blues haven’t lost three consecutive Premier League games since November 2015.
- Chelsea have lost 15 matches in all competitions during 2019, their most in a single year since 2000 (also 15). They last lost more in a year back in 1994 (17 defeats).
- Tottenham manager José Mourinho has won 12 and lost none of his 13 home games in all competitions against sides he’s previously managed, including winning all three against Chelsea (once with Inter Milan, twice with Manchester United).
- Tottenham’s Dele Alli has scored five goals in his last four Premier League meetings against Chelsea. Against no side has he scored more goals in the competition (5).
- Son Heung-min has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last nine home games for Tottenham in all competitions, scoring seven and assisting five.
Odds correct as of 1700 GMT on 20/12/19
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