Premier League betting tips: Liverpool v Man City betting preview, plus predictions & best bets for Sunday's action including Man Utd and a Midlands derby

Recommended bets

1pt Liverpool to win & both teams to score at 3/1

1pt Roberto Firmino to score anytime at 5/2

0.5pt Jack Grealish to score anytime in Wolves v Aston Villa at 6/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Liverpool v Man City (Paul Higham)

• 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event

It’s a huge game, maybe not quite a title decider just yet, but these clashes between champions and contenders can be just as important to the teams mentally as the actual result is to the league table.

Liverpool have that air of invincibility about them – only losing once in 50 league games will give you that – but that one loss was the crucial one at the Etihad in January that kept City in the title race.

They still had to perform miracles to actually win it by a point, but that game will certainly be playing on Liverpool’s minds, whether they can turn that into extra motivation to extend their lead to nine points over the champions remain to be seen.

Jurgen Klopp certainly arrives here in better shape, and not just because of the 45-game unbeaten streak his side enjoy in their Premier League stronghold of Anfield.

City are nursing some big-name injuries, namely goalkeeper Ederson who was ruled out on Friday. With his other defensive problems already well known, Pep Guardiola now has to play back-up goalkeeper Claudio Bravo in front of makeshift centre back Fernandinho.

Liverpool’s usually impeccable defence has been more fallible this term, with both teams scoring in their last eight straight games, while City have only failed to find the net six times in 62 Premier League away games under Guardiola – an away goal seems a certainty.

After going seven games at Anfield without scoring, Sergio Aguero can finally break that duck, as he’s in great form and will especially fancy his chances if lining up against Dejan Lovren. For the Reds, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah get the headlines, but City often find Roberto Firmino hard to deal with. He's got four goals in eight games and has also scored and assisted in three games against the champions.

A draw actually wouldn’t be the worst result for either side right now, but in these big games you need everybody to stand up, so with question marks at the back for City, you have to give Liverpool the edge.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bet: Liverpool to win & both teams to score at 3/1

Goals: Roberto Firmino to score anytime at 5/2

Match stats

• Man City are winless in their last 16 Premier League away games against Liverpool, their longest such winless streak against an opponent in the competition’s history.
• This will be the 35th Premier League match between the reigning champions and league leaders – each side have won nine games each (16 draws), with the champions (Man City) beating the leaders (Liverpool) 2-1 in the last such match in January 2019.
• Liverpool have won a league-high 10 points from losing positions this season. The Reds have won their last two Premier League games despite conceding the first goal – they’ve never done so in three consecutive games in the competition before.
• Manchester City have won 11 of their last 12 Premier League away games, losing only against Norwich in that run (2-3). The Citizens have bagged 30 goals in this period, netting an average of 2.5 goals per game.
• Despite Liverpool being on the second longest ever unbeaten home run in Premier League history (45 games), the Reds have conceded in each of their last five at Anfield. They last had a longer run without a clean sheet at home in October 2014 (7 games).

Wolves v Aston Villa (George Pitts)

• 1400 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event

Wolves are on a six-match unbeaten run in the Premier League. Impressive, but only two of them have been wins.

Granted, they are getting points one way or another but Nuno Espirito Santo's side are becoming draw specialists. They have shared the points in seven of 11 matches this season, which is astonishing. Surely not again here?

These sides met in the Carabao Cup 10 days ago, Villa coming out on top, but this one really is tough to call.

Wolves played in the Europa League on Thursday and their home form has not been great this term, winning one of five, while Villa's away form has not been great either, losing four of five. It really does feel like I am talking myself into a draw here.

For this reason, the preference is to avoid the result markets. Instead, the more appealing option is on homegrown hero Jack Grealish to shine in their derby match.

He sat out the cup win at Villa Park as well as the narrow defeat to Liverpool through injury and he will be raring to go here. In his last three appearances, he has scored twice and is really looking like a key man for Dean Smith's side after making the step up this season.

He can consider himself unfortunate not to be in Gareth Southgate's squad for the forthcoming internationals, but the England boss admits he is on his radar and 'very close' to a call (see below tweet).

Given the positions he gets into, his shooting rate (three or more efforts in three of their last four games) and Wolves being potentially leggy, the 6/1 price on the Villa captain to score anytime looks excellent for a small play on Sunday.

Prediction: Wolves 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Best bet: Jack Grealish to score anytime at 6/1

Match stats

• Wolves have won two of their last three league games against Aston Villa (all in the Championship), more than they had in their previous 15 against the Villans (W1 D5 L9).
• Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last nine top-flight away games against Wolves since a 1-3 loss in May 1978 (W6 D3). They’re unbeaten in all four of their Premier League games at Molineux (W3 D1).
• Aston Villa beat Wolves in their League Cup meeting last month – they last beat them twice in the same season in the 2003-04 Premier League campaign.
• Only at Portman Road (5) and the City Ground (5) have Aston Villa played more Premier League games without defeat than they have at Molineux (4).
• Aston Villa have dropped 11 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season – more than any other side.
• o Wolves’ last three Premier League games have all ended 1-1 - the last team to draw four top-flight games 1-1 in a row were Spurs in April 2008.
• No side has conceded fewer first half goals in the Premier League than Aston Villa this season (3), while the Villans have conceded more second half goals than any other side (15).
• In a Premier League table based on first-half results coming into this round of matches, Aston Villa would have the joint-most points in the division (22), while Wolves would have the joint-fewest (7). In a table based on second-half results this season, only Leicester (25) would have more points than Wolves (23).
• Should he play, Wolves forward Raúl Jiménez will become just the second Mexican player to appear in 50 Premier League games, along with Javier Hernandez. Jiménez has scored 17 goals and assisted nine in his first 49 games.
• Three of Wesley’s four Premier League goals for Aston Villa this season have been scored away from home, with these goals coming in the Brazilian’s last three games on the road.

Manchester United v Brighton (George Pitts)

• 1400 BST at Old Trafford

Man United have only won one of their last six in the Premier League, yet they are odds-on to win this one and, at the time of writing, Brighton are as large as 11/2 in places.

Whether the Seagulls can get an away victory at Old Trafford remains to be seen, but they appear to be valued generously and odds of 17/5 for them in a draw no bet is pretty tempting.

After all, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side have dropped points to Bournemouth, Newcastle, West Ham, Southampton and Crystal Palace already this season.

Granted, only the Palace result was on home soil but it shows that their ground is no longer the fortress it once was under Sir Alex Ferguson.

To be fair, their display in the Europa League on Thursday was a much-improved showing and, having just said that about Old Trafford, the home advantage could lie with them against a Brighton side which has lost three of five away from the Amex (two of those were at Man City and Chelsea, though).

Graham Potter's side will give it a good go though and they have no reason to go there and sit back. They have showed an improvement under the former Swansea boss and they can at least trouble that shaky United back line.

With this in mind, the shots on target market has some prices in their favour. They are an appealing 6/4 to register four shots on target, but the 8/13 for them to have just three is a great option to profit. But, due to the magnitude of the action elsewhere, Sunday's big game, we will not be adding it to the staking plan.

The Seagulls rose to the occasion against Tottenham (six shots on target in total), had two at Man City, four against Everton and even had five in their away defeat at Aston Villa last month. They have the attacking talent under Potter and should look to test David De Gea.

Prediction: Man United 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Brighton to have 3+ shots on target at 8/13

Match stats

• Manchester United have never lost in their 11 previous home meetings with Brighton in all competitions, winning nine and drawing two.
• All four of the victories in Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Brighton (two each) have been by a one-goal margin.
• Since beating West Ham on April 13th, Manchester United have won just 15 points in the Premier League (W3 D6 L7), the fourth-fewest of the 17 ever-present teams in that time and one fewer than newly-promoted Sheffield United have won (16).
• Against Norwich City, Brighton had two different substitutes (Duffy and Trossard) score in the same Premier League game for the third time since the start of last season – no other team has done so more than once in that time.
• All three of Manchester United’s victories in the Premier League this season have seen Marcus Rashford score the winning goal, with two of those winners coming from the penalty spot. Indeed, no player has scored more winning goals than Rashford in the Premier League this season.
• Brighton manager Graham Potter only ended on the winning side in one of his eight Premier League games as a player, doing so with Southampton in a 6-3 win over Man Utd in October 1996 – Red Devils boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer appeared as a substitute for Man Utd that day.

Odds correct as of 1800 GMT on 08/11/19

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