Sunday's Premier League sees those involved in the battle for the top-four look to get back to winning ways. Tom Carnduff has best bets at 18/1 and 25/1.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Abdoulaye Doucoure to score first in Chelsea v Watford at 25/1
1pt Granit Xhaka to score from outside the area in Arsenal v Brighton at 18/1
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Chelsea v Watford
Chelsea have two routes into the Champions League next season, although they will be looking to do it via finishing in the top-four as opposed to gambling on winning the Europa League.
Like their top-four rivals, form has been an issue in recent weeks with three consecutive games without victory in the Premier League. Maurizio Sarri's side were held by Burnley in their last home game.
In Watford, they also face a side who have two routes into Europe. They will qualify for the Europa League if they beat Manchester City in the FA Cup final, while a seventh-placed finish would see the same outcome should they lose at Wembley.
As expected given Chelsea's home form this season, Watford are huge 8/1 outsiders here but that doesn't mean they won't get their opportunities.
Despite being beaten by both Manchester clubs in recent trips, they did manage to find the net on both occasions, that's alongside a combined seven goals in visits to Cardiff and Huddersfield.
They are a side who carry an attacking threat and that will be an issue for Chelsea, particularly without the presence of Antonio Rudiger at the back as he misses out through injury.
One player who has enjoyed a positive season, and seemingly likes playing against the top teams is Abdoulaye Doucoure. The Watford midfielder has had direct involvement in eleven goals this season, with strikes coming against Manchester City, Manchester United and Everton.
He sits fourth for shots taken in this Watford side with an almost 50/50 split on those coming from inside the area or out of it. It demonstrates an ability to try and score from different areas of the pitch, which may be handy against a team with a strong home record.
Bet365 provide a best price of 25/1 on Doucoure finding the net first in this contest, as he did in the recent win over Fulham. There's also the each-way value on that too, with around 8/1 coming up for a goal anytime.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Abdoulaye Doucoure to score first (e.w.) in Chelsea v Watford at 25/1
Opta facts
- Chelsea are unbeaten in 11 home matches against Watford in all competitions (W7 D4 L0) since a 1-5 defeat on the final day of the 1985-86 season.
- Watford have taken just one point from their five away Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge against Chelsea (W0 D1 L4), drawing 2-2 on Boxing Day in 2015.
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2015, Watford have scored more Premier League goals against Chelsea than they have vs any other side (13). They’ve also scored more goals at Stamford Bridge (7) than any other visiting side over the past four seasons.
- Chelsea haven’t lost their last home league game of the season since the 2001-02 campaign (1-3 vs Aston Villa), with the Blues winning 10 and drawing six since then.
- Chelsea are winless in three Premier League games (D2 L1) – the Blues last went four without a win in May 2016 under Guus Hiddink.
- Watford are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since a run of three in September 2017.
- Watford have won away against Crystal Palace and West Ham in the Premier League this season – they’ve never won three matches in London in a single top-flight season before.
- Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has had a hand in four goals in his last three Premier League appearances against Watford (3 goals, 1 assist), netting each of the Blues’ last three goals against the Hornets.
- Chelsea named a starting XI without an Englishman against Man Utd, the 19th time they’ve done so in the Premier League this season – more than any other team. The only team to name more non-English starting XIs in a season are Arsenal (33 in 2006-07, 27 in 2007-08 and 20 in 2008-09).
- Gerard Deulofeu has been directly involved in seven of Watford’s last nine away goals in the Premier League, with the Spaniard scoring six and assisting one.
Arsenal v Brighton
Brighton could have their Premier League status confirmed by the time this game comes around, which will be a relief as their poor run is likely to continue away to Arsenal.
Chris Hughton's side sit four points above the drop zone and are winless in their last eight games in all competitions. Six of those have been defeats and there are fears of a return to the Championship among the Albion faithful.
Like Chelsea, Arsenal have two chances of making the Champions League next season. They sit two points behind the Blues but have one foot in the Europa League final after a 3-1 win over Valencia in their semi-final first leg.
They know that they will still be in with a chance of a top-four finish on final day though given an expected victory here. The Gunners have only been beaten twice on home soil in the league this season, and Brighton aren't equipped enough to make that three.
With a home win and over 2.5 goals in the match trading at even money, and Arsenal at -1.25 on the Asian Handicap, it's clear to see how the hosts are expected to find the net on multiple occasions.
With that in mind, there's value in another big-priced goalscorer selection, and that's Granit Xhaka to score from outside the penalty area at a huge 18/1 with Sky Bet.
The midfielder came under criticism after he gave the ball away in the lead up to Valencia's opener last time out, but he has been a solid performer on the whole for Arsenal this season and he could rectify that on Sunday.
He's scored four goals this season, which isn't bad going considering there have been games missed due to a groin injury in the latter stages of the campaign.
While the 15/2 available on a goal anytime looks tempting value, it's worth going for more with the 18/1 outside the area shout considering the stats. 85% of Xhaka's shots have come from outside the area in the Premier League, while that figure stands at 100% in Europe's second-string competition.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Granit Xhaka to score from outside the area at 18/1
Opta facts
- Arsenal have lost none of their seven previous home meetings with Brighton in all competitions (W6 D1), with the Gunners conceding just one goal in those games.
- No south coast side have ever won a Premier League away game against Arsenal (P32 W0 D7 L25).
- Arsenal have lost their last three Premier League games – they’ve not lost four in a row in the competition since March 1995 under Stewart Houston.
- Arsenal have only lost their last home league game of the season in one of the last 21 campaigns (1-2 vs Aston Villa in 2010-11), winning their last six in a row.
- Only Cardiff and Huddersfield (10 each) have failed to score in more away Premier League games this season than Brighton (8), with the Seagulls also failing to score in each of their last three on the road.
- Brighton have lost all 11 of their Premier League away games against ‘big six’ opposition by an aggregate score of 2-23.
- Brighton are winless in their last seven Premier League games – they’ve never gone eight without a win in the competition before.
- Arsenal have conceded 49 Premier League goals this season. Having conceded 51 goals last term, they could ship 50+ goals in consecutive top-flight campaigns for the first time since 1982-83/1983-84.
- Arsenal have conceded three goals in their last three Premier League games – they last conceded as many in four consecutive league games back in November 1963.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 19 Premier League goals for Arsenal this season – he could become the sixth different player to net 20 in a single campaign for the Gunners and first since Alexis Sanchez in 2016-17.
