There's two Bundesliga fixtures on Sunday with a huge battle at the bottom of the table. Tom Carnduff picks out his two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Augsburg to beat Mainz at 21/10
1pt Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+ goals v Schalke at 15/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen
Once again, Schalke secure a solo TV spot and once again, we should expect them to put in a poor performance in a game that ultimately ends in defeat.
We don't need to delve into the problems they are currently facing because it can be seen by their results during the second-half of the season. Last week's draw with Union Berlin was only the second point they have picked up in their last eight fixtures.
That game against Union should have ended in defeat. They posted a tiny 0.17 xG compared to Union's 2.40 and yet both sides had to settle for a point. David Wagner's men have failed to go above 1.0 xG in any of their five games since the break.
That miserable run should continue against a Bayer Leverkusen side who will be hoping to capitalise on a Monchengladbach defeat to Bayern Munich on Saturday evening. The ideal scenario would see them move three points clear in the race for the top-four.
One characteristic of Leverkusen's six games in all competitions since the break is goals. Five of those six have seen over 2.5, with Leverkusen scoring three goals in three of them.
One of those was in midweek as they reached the final of the DFB-Pokal with victory over fourth tier Saarbrucken. Prior to that, they had managed to put two past Bayern in their meeting with the current champions.
Against a struggling Schalke side, that goalscoring run should continue and there is real appeal in the 15/8 available with Sky Bet on the visitors scoring three or more in Gelsenkirchen.
Schalke's injury list continues to grow while Leverkusen are welcoming back those players who were absent. Rather than take an away win with over 2.5 goals in the match, it's worth siding with Leverkusen being the team scoring the goals.
Leverkusen are actually underperforming on their xG for goals from open play, while the same can be said for their opportunities from corners. This game provides the perfect opportunity to address those issues.
A Leverkusen/Augsburg double gives us odds of 3.7/1 with Sky Bet and the best individual bet in this contest comes in backing Leverkusen to be among the goals.
Score prediction: Schalke 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+ goals v Schalke at 15/8
Mainz v Augsburg
A huge game to kick off Sunday's action sees Mainz welcome Augsburg with both sides sitting close to the relegation zone. An unlikely win for Dusseldorf over Dortmund on Saturday could actually see Mainz kept out of the bottom-three by goal difference.
Last week's victory over Frankfurt could prove crucial for the hosts and their chances of survival. They are the favourites to win again here, but a strong case can be made for Augsburg securing all three points on offer.
Augsburg were held to a 1-1 draw by Koln last week and it could have been a whole lot worse had Philipp Max not cancelled out Anthony Modeste's late strike.
That result was harsh on Augsburg. They dominated the first-half, posting a total of 15 attempts, four of which were on target, while they failed to capitalise from seven corners.
Crucially, Florian Niederlechner was denied from the penalty spot just before the half hour mark. If the forward has scored there, it really had the feel of a game that could have ended up in a convincing win for the home side.
The xG accurately reflects what should have been an Augsburg win; their 2.20 was met by Koln's 0.79. That was the third game in a row where the xG outperformed the actual number of goals scored.
Mainz did deserve their win over Frankfurt but there is enough confidence in Augsburg, based on what we saw from that game against Koln, that they can bring their three-game winless run to an end on Sunday.
The away side trading at odds of above 2/1 provide huge appeal. Augsburg are creating the opportunities but lacking that final touch; if they can sort that issue then they will hit the net on multiple occasions.
Those performances and the chances that have come with it do provide promise. The problems would exist if they weren't getting near goal, not missing the chances they are creating.
There are a number of markets available that do provide interest but the outright price on an away victory is just too good to turn down in this case.
Score prediction: Mainz 1-2 Augsburg (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Augsburg to win at 21/10
Odds correct at 1530 BST (11/06/20)
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