After two winners from three selections on Saturday, our Bundesliga expert Tom Carnduff previews Sunday's action with best bets at prices of 12/5 and 7/2.
Recommended bets
1pt FC Koln (-1 handicap) to beat Mainz at 12/5
1pt Sebastian Andersson to score anytime in Union Berlin v Bayern Munich at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
FC Koln v Mainz
Koln hold a form of advantage over the majority of the other Bundesliga clubs this weekend as they have already had the experience of playing behind closed doors.
Their fixture prior to the temporary stoppage to the league was held without spectators as they were narrowly defeated by Champions League chasing Borussia Monchengladbach.
It will take some time for teams to adjust to the atmosphere, or lack of, without doubt, but Koln having the full 90 minutes under their belt already puts them a step ahead of Mainz.
The Bundesliga's winter break gives us some insight into how teams react following an extended period without competitive football and these two experienced differing fortunes.
For Mainz, this half of the season began with three consecutive defeats, and then a 4-0 hammering away at Wolfsburg came not long after. They've generally struggled against the form teams and those at the top-end of the division.
The bad news for the visitors is that their opponents are one of the form sides in the division. A look at the table since Markus Gisdol took over in November would have Koln sitting fifth with 25 points gained from 14 games.
The only defeats they have suffered this side of the winter break came against Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach - three of the current top-four in the league.
The second-half of the season standings have them fourth and their 20 goals scored is the most of any side below the current top-two in the standings.
Koln's results from mid-January have been slightly bizarre. They opened with a 3-1 victory over Wolfsburg, followed by a 5-1 hammering at Borussia Dortmund. They bounced back with a 4-0 victory against Freiburg, before then being hit with a 4-1 defeat to Bayern Munich.
To their credit, they responded to that heavy defeat against Bayern by beating Hertha Berlin 5-0 away. Gisdol's men have had issues playing the teams at the top, but they are firmly establishing themselves as the 'best of the rest' on current form.
Koln's price floating at shades of odds-on is appealing enough on its own based on recent evidence. But with those goals that the hosts have been scoring, it's worth delving into the handicap markets to squeeze out the extra value.
Backing the home side on the -1 handicap is above 2/1 across the board, with a best price of 12/5 and 23/10 available with multiple firms. Even if they go off around the 2/1 mark, or just below it, Koln are worth siding with for a decent victory.
They'll have to adjust not only to having no fans behind them, but also without having the famous Hennes on the sidelines. Mascots aren't allowed to be present on safety grounds.
For the superstitious types, Koln have a record of two wins and two draws in the Bundesliga without a Hennes present. While that record is a positive, we're backing the home side given their vast improvement since a change of head coach.
Score prediction: Koln 3-1 Mainz (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Opta facts
- This will be the 18th Bundesliga meeting between Köln and Mainz 05. The previous 17 BL meetings have seen just one away win – a 3-2 victory for Köln in April 2016.
- Köln are unbeaten in their eight Bundesliga home games against Mainz (W4, D4). They’ve only faced Eintracht Braunschweig more often in the top flight without tasting defeat (20 games).
- Mainz are without a win in eight Bundesliga games away to Köln (D4, L4). They’ve not faced any other side in the top flight as often on the road without winning.
- Köln have won eight of their last 11 Bundesliga games, only losing to top teams Bayern, Dortmund and Gladbach in that time. Since matchday 15, only FCB (31) and BVB (25) have picked up more points than Köln (24).
- Köln have scored in each of their last 11 Bundesliga matches, netting 27 times in total in that period (2.5 goals per game on average). They last had a longer scoring run in the top flight from August to November 1994 (14 games).
- Köln have won five of their last six Bundesliga home games – their only loss in that time came in mid-February against league leaders Bayern (4-1).
- Köln’s Mark Uth scored to cut the deficit to 2-1 in the rescheduled match against Gladbach. He has now had a hand in at least one goal in each of his seven Bundesliga games for Köln (4 goals, 4 assists).
- Mainz have lost just one of their last five Bundesliga games (W2, D2) – a 4-0 defeat at Wolfsburg on matchday 23. The Zerofivers have picked up more points from their last five games (8) than in their eight previous matches combined (6).
- Mainz conceded an 85th minute equaliser against Düsseldorf last time out. No other side has let in as many goals in the final 15 minutes of matches this Bundesliga season as the Zerofivers have (18).
- There has been a total of 34 goals scored (4.9 goals per game on average) across Mainz’s last seven Bundesliga away games (W3, L4). There have been 51 goals scored across Mainz’s 12 Bundesliga away games this season (4.3 goals per game on average).
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich
Union Berlin have enjoyed their debut Bundesliga campaign and, unless they experience a serious downturn in form, they'll retain their place in the German top-flight next season.
Their return to action hands them the tough task of facing a Bayern side who have dominated German football over the past decade.
At the time of writing, the Asian Handicap has Bayern at -2 which shows that the money is not just behind an away victory, but an away victory with goals in it as well.
This side of the winter break has been mixed for the hosts. They have picked up points against other sides in mid to lower table but there have been convincing defeats to Leipzig and Dortmund.
Consistency has been lacking throughout the course of the campaign for Union and it's very likely we'll be witnessing a one-sided affair in Sunday's later kick-off.
Of course, with Bayern at 1/5 across the board there is little value in the outright market. Even backing the visitors on the -2 handicap fails to go near odds of 2/1.
Union have looked to work their way through the Bundesliga playing aggressive, direct football. They have aimed to dominate in the air, which they do in most of their contests.
They utilise aerial battles more than any other German top-flight side. Their average of 53.4 across 90 minutes is well clear of Freiburg's 40.9 in second. It's hardly surprising that they have won more aerial duels by a considerable average margin of 7.8 per game as well.
And there is the bonus of having a forward in Sebastian Andersson leading the line. Union have a striker who suits what they want to do and it's part of their success so far in virtually ensuring survival in this league.
On average, Andersson wins 7.8 of the 14.6 aerial duels he is involved in every game. That is well clear of other top strikers in this area; Lewandowski's average is 2.1, while Haaland sits at 1.5 and Werner at 0.2.
What we've seen throughout the season is that when Union face the 'bigger' sides at home, they increasingly look to long balls and their presence in the air to try and secure success.
In their meeting with Dortmund in August, it worked. The visitors may have won more aerial duels overall, but Union's strike partnership of Anthony Ujah and Andersson were involved in a combined total of 16 offensive aerial battles.
Remarkably, that game was one of the lowest for Andersson in terms of successful aerial duels. Although, his two lowest coming against Dortmund highlight how he does struggle against that particular opponent.
12 successful aerial duels against Leipzig, eight against Leverkusen, seven against Monchengladbach and even the six against Bayern in the reverse fixture give hope that the Swedish striker can continue his good scoring record and add to the high number of headers scored this season.
This game should be one in which Bayern come away with a good margin of victory, but at a best price of 7/2, it's worth backing Andersson to get onto the scoresheet.
Score prediction: Union Berlin 1-4 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Opta facts
- The reverse fixture on matchday nine was the first competitive meeting between Union Berlin and Bayern Munich. Union lost 1-2 in Munich, with FCB conceding two penalties during a match for the only time in 2019/20.
- Union have won five of their last eight Bundesliga home games (D1 L2), keeping a clean sheet in each of these five wins. They recorded their first ever draw at home in the top-flight in their most recent game in Köpenick (2-2 against Wolfsburg).
- Union have conceded at least three goals in four of their eight Bundesliga games since the break. In the first half of the season, they only let in more than three goals once, on the opening game of the season (0-4 loss to Leipzig).
- Union Berlin's Sebastian Andersson scored a Bundesliga high 6 headers this season. The last players to score more headers in a complete BL season were Stefan Kießling and Mario Mandzukic in 2013-14 (7 each).
- The match against Union will be Bayern’s 1,866th Bundesliga game (1,111 wins). The record champions have now drawn level on number of games played with Hamburger SV (746 wins). Only Bremen have played more top-flight matches (1,890).
- Bayern have a four-point lead at the top of the Bundesliga table for the first time this season. They’ve never thrown away a lead this big this late in a season.
- Bayern have taken 31 of a possible 33 points from their last 11 Bundesliga games, only dropping points against Leipzig on MD21 (0-0). They’ve scored 38 goals in this period while conceding six and keeping six clean sheets.
- Bayern last recorded five away wins in a row in the Bundesliga between December 2017 and March 2018 (6).
- Bayern are the first club in Bundesliga history to score at least three goals in five away games in a row. FCB have netted 73 goals in 25 games – a tally only the Bavarians themselves have managed to top (74 in both 1973/74 and 2013/14).
- Bayern’s Serge Gnabry has had a hand in seven goals in his last four Bundesliga games (4 goals, 3 assists). The 24-year-old has been involved in 15 goals in 14 BL games under head coach Hansi Flick (9 goals, 6 assists).
Odds correct at 1600 BST (14/05/20)
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