Saturday lunchtime's game comes from St Mary's, as Southampton welcome Burnley. George Pitts looks for value.
Recommended bets
1pt Stuart Armstrong to score anytime at 19/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Southampton v Burnley
- 1230 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
The early kick-off at St Mary's could easily have been a vital six-pointer, but good recent runs have helped these sides both move seven points clear of the drop zone.
That run over December and January helped Southampton surge out of the bottom three while Burnley are unbeaten in their last three in the Premier League, with two wins and a draw.
Had it been between the two sides when they were struggling, it could have been a much cagier affair, with both outfits keen to avoid making errors therefore playing out a draw. But, with a little less pressure on them, it could be more open and a decent watch after their mid-season break.
The reverse fixture was 3-0 to Burnley on the opening day but Ralph Hasenhuttl's side are much improved. They did lose their last fixture, but it was against Liverpool at Anfield which is forgivable - and they did hold the runaway league leaders until half-time.
Interestingly, stats from recent games show just how Stuart Armstrong has regularly been trying his luck and it has been paying off. The Scottish attacker has scored two goals in his last three Premier League appearances and his rate of shooting is impressive - in his last four appearances, he has had six, one, three and three shots in a game respectively.
The 27-year-old is capable of scoring and the 19/5 available could be worth backing should he start against a Clarets side that can be hit and miss on the road.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets: Stuart Armstrong to score anytime at 19/5
Key stats
- Southampton are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with Burnley (D3 L3), failing to score on four occasions in that run.
- Following their 3-0 win at Turf Moor on the opening weekend, Burnley are looking to complete the league double over Southampton for the first time since 1946-47 in the second tier.
- Southampton have won fewer points in home games than any other Premier League side this season (11). It’s Saints’ lowest points tally after 12 top-flight home games since the 1991-92 campaign (10).
- Burnley are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since December 2017.
- Southampton have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 10 (W6 D2 L2).
- Burnley have been leading at half-time in just four Premier League games this season – no side have been ahead at the break in fewer matches.
- Burnley are averaging 223 successful passes per game in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side. It’s also the Clarets’ lowest in a single campaign in the competition.
- Only league leaders Liverpool (11) have kept more Premier League clean sheets this season than Burnley (9). Indeed, the Clarets have already recorded more shutouts this term than they did in the whole of 2018-19 (8).
- Burnley’s Ashley Barnes has scored more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has versus any other side (5). His five goals against Saints accounts for 56% of Burnley’s total against them in the competition (5/9).
- Danny Ings has scored 17 goals in all competitions this season – the last Southampton player to score more in a season with Saints as a top-flight club was James Beattie in 2002-03 (24).
Odds correct as of 2100 GMT on 13/02/20
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