Spain vs Germany betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1pt Antonio Rüdiger to score anytime at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Antonio Rüdiger to score first at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 15/1
- Over 2.5 goals
- Antonio Rüdiger 1+ shots on target
- 4+ corners each team
In a tournament that has divided opinion, one in which the start promised so much before the reality and dullness of knockout football kicked in, Spain and Germany have been the only two sides you can point to who have performed impressively throughout.
That's not to say some others haven't - Switzerland potentially fall into that category - but the two sides set to meet in Stuttgart on Friday evening have been operating at the consistent high level required.
Both have a strong claim to the crown - only one can progress.
The sheer excitement of an international tournament at home from the German public has pushed their team on. The aggressive style they operate without the ball and the attacking intent with it has given us a team capable of going the distance.
This is a Spain side who look a step ahead though. Luis de la Fuente has demonstrated strong tactical flexibility throughout the tournament - an ability to play the opponent just as well as you play in your own way.
We saw it against Georgia, an adjustment made to battle the low block they expected to face. It left them vulnerable to the counter - their opposition made the most of that - but operating with six forwards in possession helped them score four times.
It's almost a pick 'em in terms of the odds with Spain made narrow favourites by the bookmakers to reach the semi-finals. I don't disagree based on the performances we've seen.
What are the best bets?
Julian Nagelsmann hasn't been afraid to make changes either but his have mostly been in terms of the personnel to best suit the contest.
We saw the bravery in dropping Florian Wirtz - the Bundesliga's Player of the Season - for Leroy Sané in the last match, while David Raum came in for Maximilian Mittelstädt at left-back.
At this point, it's not clear if he'll make any further adjustments. One figure who has been present throughout though is ANTONIO RÜDIGER and the 28/1 price to SCORE ANYTIME is certainly intriguing.
Spain have conceded a low expected goals against (xGA) total from set-pieces this tournament, but the fact they've only had seven corners taken against them across the four games is a significant reason behind that.
Only three sides have seen more shots come directly after a set-piece than Germany, and their corner count could go fairly high in what may become an end-to-end contest.
There are two reasons why Rüdiger is an interesting bet. The first being his position for Germany's attacking corners.
The centre-back typically stays central, starting his run at the penalty spot and looking to attack the edge of the six-yard box. That makes him both a threat from direct shots or the potential second phase by connecting with another pass.
That is a particularly positive sign when we factor how good Germany have been at delivering corners into the middle zone.
The second reason is the fact he has no problem in going for an ambitious effort from distance. You never know, one day it may fly in.
But it's largely the set-pieces behind this selection. Die Mannschaft have been a threat from corners and crossing free-kicks throughout the tournament.
In case he gets the first, I'll also take a smaller stakes play on RÜDIGER TO SCORE FIRST at 66s.
With a close contest expected, this could be one route to success for the host nation.
Team news
Neither side is dealing with any suspension or injury issues heading into their quarter-final meeting.
Given the convincing nature of their victory over Georgia, Spain are likely to stick with the same XI from last time out.
Germany, meanwhile, may opt to bring Wirtz back into the attack, while Jonathan Tah is expected to replace Nico Schlotterbeck as he returns from a yellow card ban.
Kai Havertz is likely to continue up front.
Predicted line-ups
Spain XI: Simón; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Morata, Williams.
Germany XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Rüdiger, Tah, Raum; Andrich, Kroos; Musiala, Gündoğan, Wirtz; Havertz.
Odds correct at 1110 BST (03/07/24)
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