Spain vs Georgia betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1.5pts Spain to have 21+ shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 9/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Fabian Ruiz to score anytime at 7/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Fabian Ruiz to score first at 18/1 (Betway)
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Spain to win
- Over 3.5 goals
- Spain to have 21+ shots
- Fabian Ruiz to score anytime
Spain were undoubtedly the standout team of the group stage, not only because they were the only side to win all three matches but because of how impressive they were in doing so.
A 3-0 victory over Croatia was followed by a dominant 1-0 win against Italy before Luis del a Fuente changed his entire XI for their meeting with Albania and still emerged as 1-0 victors.
That is far from an inevitability, as was proven by their next opponents.
Georgia took full advantage of Portugal’s decision to make eight changes by shocking Roberto Martinez’s team 2-0 to pull off one of the biggest upsets in European Championship history.
But a full strength Spain, with everything at stake, will be a very different proposition to a second string Portugal, with nothing to play for.
What are the best bets?
These teams were in same qualifying group for Euro 2024, with Spain thrashing Georgia 7-1 in Tbilisi and winning 3-1 at home. They were also grouped together in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, with 4-0 and 2-1 wins for Spain.
Georgia have done remarkably well to get this far, and deserve huge credit, but there is no hiding the fact they have been fortunate.
They may have only conceded two goals, but no team has given their opponents more chances according to expected goals, with the 8 xG they have allowed a huge 2.1 more than anyone else.
Poland and Albania are next on the list. They conceded six and five goals respectively and are both out.
The 9/5 about OVER 3.5 GOALS is therefore very much worth backing.
Any combination involving Spain and overs is ill-advised as it doesn't represent value as a double; unsurprising given the favourites 1/5 price for victory.
A selection that protects us from the possibility of more heroics from Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili is SPAIN TO HAVE 21+ SHOTS.
The shot line looks to have been drawn a touch low considering that in Spain’s 7-1 qualifying win they had 33 attempts - a staggering 29 from inside the penalty area - with a further 20 in the return fixture.
In the group stage, Portugal and Turkey both took 22 shots with Czechia registering 27.
At a pick ‘em price of 5/4, this simply must be backed.
Stick with Ruiz
I backed FABIAN RUIZ to both SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME against Albania, only for him to be left out of the starting XI after Del a Fuente made 10 changes. I'm very happy to stick with it for a match against a team with such a questionable defence.
If you'd rather avoid splitting your stake across two bookies, Sky Bet are offering the best each-way price at 16/1, but backed separately he is 18/1 to break the deadlock and 7/1 to simply find the net.
Regurgitating my previous argument, Spain's most goal-threatening trio of Alvaro Morata (seven), Fabian Ruiz and Lamine Yamal (both four) had plenty of attempts on goal in the opening two rounds of fixtures.
Ruiz looking dangerous throughout, scoring and assisting against Croatia and hitting the target with three of his four attempts on goal. In comparison to his team-mates, he looks overpriced to score again.
Team news
Having made 10 changes for their final group game against Albania, Aymeric Laporte was the only player to keep his place, with Rodri back from suspension Spain are expected to revert to their first-choice team. Nacho and Ayoze Perez remain injury doubts.
Georgia have Anzor Mekvabishvili back from a one-game ban and he is expected to replace Watford midfielder Giorgi Chakvetadze in the only change from their shock 2-0 win over Portugal.
Predicted line-ups
Spain: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams.
Georgia: Mamardashvili, Dvali, Kashia, Lochoshvili, Kiteishvili, Kochorashvili, Gvelesiani, Kakabadze, Mekvabishvili, Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (28/06/24)
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