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Spain vs England Euro 2024 final betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1pt John Stones 1+ total shots at 4/1 (bet365)
0.75pt John Stones to score anytime at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
0.75pt John Stones 1+ assists at 33/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- John Stones 1+ total shots
- England 4+ corners
- Marc Cucurella to commit 2+ fouls
A world exists where you can find the middle ground. A way of thinking that deters itself from one extreme or the other - an understanding that both points have some element of truth.
In a world where Gareth Southgate is the England manager, it is seemingly difficult to find that middle ground. The water becomes mudded further when the Three Lions reach the latter stages of a tournament.
It's back-to-back appearances in Euros finals. No man who has overseen the national side has come close to replicating that. The trophy cabinet remains bare but the belief has returned - something that stats can't track.
His transformation of this England set-up has been drastic; memorable; near unrivalled. Yet the concerns about tactical flaws remain valid, a reactive rather than proactive approach that he simply can't shake.
And in Spain, the face the best team at the tournament. Luis de la Fuente's men have been near perfect, flexible in their approach and demonstrating strength throughout in what has been the hardest run of all 24 involved.
They've snatched the favourites tag off England - now 4/6 from 8/1 before a ball was kicked. Not too many will disagree based on their showings.
What are the best bets?
When England made their first run at glory in the Southgate era - the 2018 World Cup in Russia - they established themselves as the set-piece kings.
Dead-ball situations proved vital, no side looked equipped to stop them, but that has seemingly disappeared in recent times with more emphasis on defensive solidity and encouraging individual talent.
A close encounter is expected - perhaps the Three Lions look back to that previous attitude in order to find a way through.
A surface look at Spain's showings from corners this tournament would suggest they're strong at defending them but the eye test says otherwise. It's a weakness, saved by the fact they haven't conceded many corners so far.
Across their six games, their opponents have combined for 18 taken, yet they've faced six shots with two of them on target. They've averaged one shot against from every three corners they concede.
Game state may benefit England's chances of racking up the count considering their issues with conceding first. There's also the possibility they look to play for them knowing the potential mismatch.
Step forward, JOHN STONES. The centre-back has been a regular throughout Southgate's spell and came close to scoring in their group stage draw with Slovenia.
I'm not too concerned with the fact that was his only shot at the tournament so far. Much like the Spain defensive angle, this can be explained by England's low corners total.
We must focus on the match-up, occasion and game state though, don't reflect too much on what's happened before. You can get 4/1 on STONES 1+ TOTAL SHOTS which is a great price, as is the 5/2 lowest with other firms.
And, while we're on the subject, take the 28s for a GOAL ANYTIME too.
The reason I'm looking at Stones here is his positioning on attacking set-pieces. He typically looks to keep himself central in the area between the penalty spot and the six-yard box - a prime place for direct contact or winning second balls.
It's also particularly good when England like to play short corners as it encourages movement within the box - there is a chance he runs onto a well delivered cross in as they look to disrupt the Spanish shape.
Aurélien Tchouaméni's close range header, which was saved, is a good example of how exposed they can be from corners with England likely to edge the aerial battle between the two sides.
Given his position on these attacking set-pieces, I'll also side with STONES 1+ ASSISTS at 33s.
This could be a flick-on or a header back into a crowded area. The central area he often occupies makes him a contender even if there isn't a chance for a direct effort.
Stones plays the most long passes of any outfield player in the England squad too, so we can't rule out one coming in open play either with potential space opening up behind Spain's defensive line.
Team news
Spain's only injury concern surrounds striker Alvaro Morata after he was, bizarrely, accidentally taken out by a member of security chasing down a pitch invader after their victory over France.
Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are expected to return to the defence following their suspensions for that semi-final victory. Pedri remains out through injury.
England also have a full squad to choose from and the main focus will be on the left side of their back line.
Luke Shaw replaced Kieran Trippier at the break last time out, and Southgate will debate starting his only natural left-back in place of continuity.
Predicted line-ups
Spain XI: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Williams; Morata.
England XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Mainoo, Rice, Shaw; Bellingham, Foden; Kane.
Odds correct at 1705 BST (11/07/24)
Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life
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