Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Bournemouth Asian handicap (-1) at 21/20 (bet365)
2pts Milos Kerkez to commit 2+ fouls at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Milos Kerkez to commit 3+ fouls at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 47/1
- Bournemouth to win
- Marcus Tavernier to commit 2+ fouls
- Milson Kerkez to commit 3+ fouls
This could get ugly for honourable Russell Martin - unwavering in his approach.
His side make the short trip across the south coast where a clash in styles looks bound to suit the visitors.
Southampton are one of three Premier League teams with a solitary point this term and time-and-time again their undoing has proven to be Martin’s stubbornness, unwavering allegiance to playing out from the back.
So, what happens when you play one of the best pressing sides in the division?
What are the best bets?
Only Tottenham (42) have completed more tackles in the final third than BOURNEMOUTH (34). Combine that with the fact Southampton top the charts for errors leading to goals (4) and leading to shots (6) and things begin to look bleak for the visitors.
Taking Bournemouth on the ASIAN HANDICAP (-1) appeals with the added security of stakes returned if Bournemouth win by one goal.
Although Southampton have played well at times this term, the style of play is the root of the issue and their wasteful finishing and poor defending does not help.
The Saints rank third for xGA and fifth for ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.35) missed. Most worrying of all though, they have generated an xG of 7.1 yet only scored twice, which is the fewest in the division, losing to-nil in all-bar-one of their league games.
Bournemouth should have little issue in outscoring the Saints on Monday.
Tyler Dibling has been one of few positives for the Saints.
The 18-year-old scored against Ipswich on his second top-flight start and has been a pain for opposition left-backs in both his starts to date, drawing four fouls in each.
Diogo Dalot committed four fouls against Dibling and Leif Davies committed two.
MILOS KERKEZ should be the man tasked with containing him, he has committed at least one every game this term and his prices TO COMMIT 2+ and 3+ appeals Monday.
- CLICK HERE to back Milos Kerkez to commit 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Milos Kerkez to commit 3+ fouls with Sky Bet
Although they are not currently priced, it will be worth keeping an eye out for Player Foul Matchup markets on Sky Bet or Paddy Power. I’ll be waiting for Kerkez’s price to commit 1+, 2+ and 3+ fouls on Dibling.
Team news
Andoni Iraola doesn’t have any fresh injury concerns from the side which lost 3-0 at Anfield, Tyler Adams is the only player unavailable for the hosts.
The Bournemouth boss may still opt to shuffle his deck with Adam Smith potentially coming in at right back and Marcos Senesi in central defence.
The attacking quartet of Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson should remain intact.
As for the visitors, Martin could also name an unchanged side from the one that earned its first point in the last game.
This would see Ben Brereton Diaz settle for a spot on the bench again with Ryan Fraser and Dibling preferred on the flanks and Cameron Archer upfront.
Predicted line-ups
Bournemouth: Kepa; Smith, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez; Cook, Christie; Semenyo, Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson.
Southampton: Ramsdale; Sugawara, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Taylor; Lallana, Downes, Fernandes; Dibling, Archer, Fraser.
Match facts
- Having won their first Premier League home game against Southampton in March 2016, Bournemouth are now winless in their last five against Saints at the Vitality Stadium in the competition (D2 L3).
- Southampton haven’t conceded a goal in any of their last three Premier League away games against Bournemouth – only against Swansea between 2013 and 2016 have they kept four consecutive clean sheets on the road in the competition.
- Bournemouth have lost five of their last eight Premier League matches (W1 D2) – they had won five of their previous eight games beforehand (D1 L2).
- Southampton have picked up just one point in their opening five Premier League matches in 2024-25, their fewest at this stage of a league season since 1998-99 when they had no points after five games.
- Bournemouth have lost five of their seven Premier League games played on a Monday (W1 D1); among sides to play 5+ matches on this day of the week in the competition, their loss rate of 71% is the highest. Opponents Southampton, though, have lost 54% of their Monday matches in the Premier League (28/52), the highest rate of a side to play 20+ times on this day.
- Southampton are winless in their last 18 Premier League matches (D5 L13) since a 1-0 win over Leicester City in March 2023. The last side to have a longer winless run were Norwich City between March 2020 and October 2021 (20 games).
- Although Bournemouth suffered a 3-0 defeat at Liverpool last time out, they had 19 shots; that was the joint most by an away team in a Premier League game at Anfield that Opta has on record since 2003-04.
- Southampton have conceded the most goals via corners (4) and set pieces (5) in the Premier League this season, while they are one of four teams – one of which is opponents Bournemouth – who are yet to score a set piece goal in 2024-25.
- Adam Lallana assisted Tyler Dibling’s goal for Southampton against Ipswich Town last time out. Lallana is 17 years and 306 days older than Dibling, with that the biggest age gap between a goalscorer and assister since March 2006, when Teddy Sheringham set up Nigel Reo-Coker for West Ham against Wigan (18 years and 42 days older).
- The two players who’ve conceded the most fouls in the Premier League this season are Bournemouth duo Justin Kluivert (15) and Lewis Cook (14). Those two players are responsible for 43% of the fouls the Cherries have committed this season (29/67).
Odds correct at 1340 BST (27/09/24)
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