Football betting tips: Southampton v Wolves
1pt Jannik Vestergaard 1+ headed shot on target at 5/2
1pt Jannik Vestergaard anytime scorer at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Southampton v Wolves
- 12:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 11/8 | Draw 21/10 | Away 2/1
It’s a strange quirk of the fixture calendar that seemingly every season teams drawn together in one of the cups end up playing each other in the league at around the same time.
So it is with Southampton and Wolves, who follow up their Molineux meeting on Thursday evening with a lunchtime Sunday soiree at St Mary’s.
With such a small time period between the games, you would think there must be plenty we can glean from the first match to help us predict what might happen in this rapid reunion.
The trouble is that Wolves boss Nuno Espirito Santo seemed, bizarrely, to prioritise this mid-table dead rubber over a last-16 FA Cup tie, making six changes that led to an almost inevitable 2-0 defeat against a strong Saints side.
Experimentation was the reason he gave afterwards but victory would have earned a quarter-final against Championship side Bournemouth and maybe a first FA Cup final for generations of Wolves supporters – their last was in 1960.
The innumerable inadequacies of the bottom three will keep them clear of danger but Wolves are a team treading water at best, with three wins in their past 13 – and two of those coming against non-league Chorley and nine-man Arsenal, both unconvincing and fortunate single-goal victories.
Southampton’s form has been little better – five straight Premier League defeats since they stunned Liverpool in the early knockings of 2021, that run including the infamous 9-0 hammering at Manchester United.
Thursday’s win – and a fully deserved one at that as they dominated throughout against a shadow home side – could well give them the confidence boost they so badly needed.
Wolves, however, are nothing if not resilient – while the 7/5 or 11/8 generally available about a Saints win is tempting, the counter-argument is that Wanderers have held Tottenham, Chelsea and Leicester to draws even during their recent uninspired run.
Even a Southampton victory with under 3.5 goals is only on offer at a best 2/1 – that’s too skinny for me on a side whose results have been as poor as theirs.
The better value, thus, can be found in the goalscoring markets, where Southampton have a veritable feast of options, their first choice XI having virtually all found the net at some stage this term.
If we put aside understandably-short top scorer Danny Ings, then the likes of set-piece specialist James Ward-Prowse (17/4 anytime), Nathan Redmond and Stuart Armstrong (both 5s) all appeal.
But taking into account Wolves’ struggles at set-piece situation this season – nine of the 23 goals they have conceded have come via that route and it's a problem likely to be exacerbated by the absence of the injured Willy Boly - it’s worth a play on someone at larger odds.
No team has scored more than Southampton’s 11 from set-pieces in the Premier League in 2020/21 and three of those have come from giant centre-half Jannik Vestergaard.
The Dane recently returned from injury in the defeat at Newcastle and while he was rested for the Cup clash, he should be back for this one and I think it’s a case of ‘out of sight, out of mind’ with some bookies including Genting Bet who have him a whopping 11/1 to score anytime (he’s 15/2 generally).
He’s had 12 attempts on goal in 14 league appearances this season – 10 of those have been headers, with five on target (including one against Newcastle on his return) so the 5/2 Sky Bet offer on Vestergaard simply to register a headed shot on target also sticks out like a sore thumb.
The Saints accumulated eight corners against Wolves on Thursday – anything approaching that number will give the accurate Ward-Prowse plenty of opportunities to find his favourite flag-kick target.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Southampton v Wolves best bets
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (12/02/21)
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