Southampton host Champions League chasing Leicester on Friday night, and while another 9-0 is unlikely to be on the cards, Jake Osgathorpe is siding with the Foxes.
Football betting tips: Southampton v Leicester
2pts Leicester to win at 23/20 (William Hill, BetVictor)
It was in this game last season, on a Friday night, in which Leicester went to St. Mary’s and won 9-0.
I obviously don’t expect the same scoreline here, but the same result looks likely given the way these two teams have been trending of late.
Defence now the issue for Saints
Southampton’s second half of the season has been horrendous.
Since they beat Liverpool in their first game of 2021, no team has collected fewer points in the Premier League than Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side, who have managed just seven in 15 league games – even rock bottom Sheffield United have managed more than double that tally (15).
They have conceded a whopping 39 goals in that time, and while they have been on the end of some rotten luck defensively according to expected goals against (xGA – 26.7), their xGA average in that time is still hugely concerning.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Southampton have allowed an average of 1.78 xGA per game since beating the champions, with only Crystal Palace (1.89) and Sheffield United (1.94) performing worse in that category.
Leicester in a good moment
Brendan Rodgers’s side have the ability to expose the Saints vulnerable backline, and this game represents an excellent opportunity to all-but confirm their seat at Europe’s top table next season.
After a small wobble, losing to both Manchester City and West Ham, Leicester bounced back with successive wins in the league, beating both West Brom and Crystal Palace at the King Power.
It isn’t fresh news to learn that the Foxes have done their best work away from home this season, winning 10 of 16 while boasting the sixth best away xG process in the league, so those home wins will boost their confidence even more ahead of this trip.
They now hold a seven-point lead over fifth-placed West Ham with just five games remaining, but with their final three matches being against Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham, the importance of this game is huge.
Kalechi Iheanacho is in the form of his life right now, and the 7/5 available about him scoring here did tempt me, as his non-penalty xG per 95 minutes this season is at an impressive 0.49, which ranks him eighth best in the Premier League, showing he is getting in good scoring positions regularly.
For context, Harry Kane is at 0.52 non-pen xG/95, Iheanacho's teammate Jamie Vardy is averaging 0.45 while Mohamed Salah is averaging 0.44.
The blossoming partnership of Iheanacho and Vardy is extremely exciting, and that pair can get the Foxes over the line.
Side with Foxes down south
Southampton’s defence is a huge concern heading into this game, and I see Leicester having no problems creating opportunities.
These sides met in the FA Cup semi-final not so long ago, and Rodgers’s side prevailed in comfortable fashion. History could repeat itself here.
LEICESTER TO WIN is priced at 23/20, and that looks a decent price given everything discussed.
The Foxes are on the hunt, and the Saints are another bottom half, vulnerable team that will likely be relatively easy prey.
Southampton v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Leicester to win at 23/20 (William Hill, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1340 BST (28/04/21)
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