There is little to play for as Southampton host Leeds, but that does not mean there isn't value to be found. Jake Pearson previews the fixture, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Premier League betting tips: Southampton v Leeds
1pt Southampton to win at 15/8 (SBK)
Southampton and Leeds come into this fixture in a similar vein of form. Both side’s recent form figures read LDWW, and both teams have scored three or more goals in each of their last two matches.
Both sides have little to play for other than pride and a largely meaningless league position, which could go someway to explaining their recent upturn in high-scoring fixtures, their last four combined games seeing a total of 16 goals, and that also makes it a little more difficult to assess how this match is going to go.
Southampton fought back from a goal down to beat Crystal Palace last week, and they backed that up with an accomplished victory over Fulham at the weekend, both matches finishing 3-1.
The return of Danny Ings to the Saints’ starting line-up has certainly boosted their performances of late, and the former Liverpool man has been absolutely vital to Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side this term, scoring 12 goals in 27 appearances.
It is not just goals that Ings provides for Southampton, though, his team perform better as a whole when he is on the pitch, with their points-per-game more than doubling when the former Liverpool man is playing.
Leeds arrive in Southampton having scored seven goals in their last two matches, producing an impressive performance to beat Tottenham 3-1 last week, before comfortably sweeping Burnley aside at the weekend, putting four goals past Sean Dyche’s men.
Leeds look to have found their stride again recently, having previously gone three games without a win, and this could be a game blistering with goal-mouth action.
Unfortunately, the goals markets do look to have been correctly priced, meaning despite the high probability that there will be goals in this fixture, there is no value in siding with such an occurrence.
There does look to be a little bit of value to be had on the 1X2 (WLD) market though, specifically in backing SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN.
This is a tough game to call, even more so given how little is at stake, so the best we can do is look for which team is overpriced, and that does seem to be the home side.
Against only West Brom, Newcastle and Burnley have Leeds been a shorter price to win away this season, while Southampton have actually been sent off at odds-on in three of their last four home matches.
The reason for that is partly due to the fact that Southampton’s record at St Mary’s has actually been pretty good this season, Hassenhuttl’s side picking up the eighth-most points at home, scoring the seventh-most goals.
Leeds have been far from bad on the road, but the long and short of it is, Leeds are too short and Southampton are too big.
Back Southampton to win this fixture at a standout price of 15/8, though 9/5, and even 7/4, would still represent a good bet.
Southampton v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Southampton to win at 15/8 (SBK)
Score prediction: Southampton 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1500 BST (16/05/21)
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