After landing a 15/8 winner on Saturday, Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to preview Sunday's early game between Southampton and Brighton.
Football betting tips: Southampton v Brighton
1pt Draw at 21/10 (General)
Southampton beat bottom side Sheffield United last weekend, but followed that up with a 5-2 loss at the Etihad in midweek at the hands of Manchester City.
While that result was to be expected against the champions-elect, it does mean that the Saints have now lost eight of their past 10 league matches.
Saints attack is a concern
Something that was touched upon by Liam Kelly in his recent Southampton analysis article was the fact that their lack of creativity in attack that is holding them back.
They aren’t creating anywhere near enough chances in games to warrant wins and that is why their results have worsened.
Even when they were top of the table, their underlying numbers suggested that a dip in form was coming, with the Saints finishing at an unsustainable rate.
For perspective, only five teams possess a worst expected goals for (xGF) process than Southampton (1.14 xGF per game), with two of those being the current bottom two.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Fortunately for Southampton, at home they are incredibly strong defensively.
Only Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester City have allowed fewer expected goals against (xGA) per home game than Southampton this season.
Brighton to keep things tight
Brighton are now winless in five after a 2-1 home defeat by Leicester, a result that means they are now outside of the bottom three on goal difference alone.
As mentioned numerous times, Graham Potter’s side are in a false position, with Infogol’s xG model suggesting that their performances warrant them to be in fifth place in the Premier League.
The majority of that underperformance has come at home, where only Manchester City have collected more expected points (xP), with the Seagulls' away performances far inferior to what they have managed at The Amex, despite the results suggesting otherwise.
Brighton have won four of their five league games on the road this term, but rank as a bottom half away team according to xP, averaging 1.26 xGF and 1.42 xGA per game.
Having said that, they have been extremely sound defensively in three of their past four away matches, which included trips to Leeds and Liverpool, allowing 1.03 xGA per game in that time.
Defences to be on top
Since defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad, only Chelsea have been better defensively than Brighton according to expected goals, and given their predicament and need for points, they could well set up to be more cautious.
Southampton’s struggles in attack, coupled with their strong defence at St. Mary’s backs up the fact that this game could be a dull one, with few goals expected.
There doesn’t look to be value in the goals market, with under 2.5 goals as short as 4/7, so given how closely matched these teams are in this setting, the DRAW stands out.
The draw is the outsider of the outright market, but given the low amount of goals expected, it is a serious runner in this game at 21/10.
Brighton have drawn 40% of their league matches this term, and while Southampton have drawn only 21% of theirs, 11 of their other games have been decided by a single-goal margin, highlighting how tight their matches have been.
Southampton v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- Draw at 21/10 (General)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (12/03/21)
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