Brighton travel to Southampton as the two out-of-form teams clash at St Mary's. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt on the Draw at 23/10 (General)
Neither of these two teams arrive into this fixture in particularly good places, Southampton winless in their last three, while Brighton’s run without a victory stretches back to mid-September, some 10 matches ago.
The Saints twice took the lead against Leicester on Wednesday evening, only to be twice pegged back, and though Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men created slightly the better chances (xG: SOT 2.16 - 1.76 LEI), it was another game very much in the balance as far as Southampton were concerned.
This has been a recurring theme throughout their season, something we can clearly see by their expected goal difference (xGD) of -0.5. They rarely dominate, nor are they often dominated. Their matches are on a knife-edge and are often settled by individual moments, or errors, leaving the results to chance somewhat.
This could explain why they are now just two places and five points above the relegation zone; performances have not been assertive enough.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Southampton 11/8 | Draw 9/4 | Brighton 2/1
Very much the same can be said about Brighton, however, their xGD standing at +0.6, equating to a +0.04 xGD per game - a fair way off the +0.41 xGD per game they posted last season.
They are not creating chances at the same rate as they were last season, but their finishing levels remain low. Despite having the seventh worst attack in the division according to expected goals, they have still under-performed that by more than four goals. Brighton’s problems are clear; the solution is a little murkier.
No team drew more than the 14 matches that Brighton did last season, and it is a theme that has carried over into this campaign.
With seven draws from 14 matches, the Seagulls sit joint-top of the division in that respect, while Southampton are just one behind with six.
This is no coincidence, both sides’ xGD tell us their matches are all evenly contested, and it looks something worth siding with once again.
Draws are one of the hardest things to model, to quantify, and basically to predict. Few other sports have draws, and even when they do they are very seldom. Draws are something of an anomaly that add an extra layer to attaching probabilities to football matches.
However, while this may make it difficult for the punter to assess exactly how likely a draw may be, it also means it is difficult for the layers to assess, something that has become clear when examining the data from this season.
Using the average price available, backing THE DRAW in every match not involving one of the traditional ‘big six’ (Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham) would have seen you return a profit of just under 25 points to a level stake.
That is quite an astounding return, with a surprising 39% of all these matches ending level after 90 minutes.
Factor in as well that these two are draw specialists, and that the price of 23/10 implies a probability of just a 30% that this game finishes as a stalemate, and the draw makes even more appeal.
Southampton v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt on the Draw at 23/10 (General)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (02/12/21)
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