Two of the Premier League season's surprise packages meet at St Mary's on Saturday night as Southampton host Aston Villa. Michael Beardmore takes a look.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Jack Grealish to assist a goal for Ollie Watkins at 13/2
1pt Bertrand Traore to score any time at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Southampton v Aston Villa
- 20:00 GMT Saturday kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 6/4
Southampton and Aston Villa have both graced the Champions League places and delighted neutrals with fine football while bloodying the noses of some of the Premier League big boys this season.
Each have produced memorable wins over reigning champions Liverpool, the high press of Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Saints and the flowing football of Dean Smith’s Villa earning pundit praise aplenty.
So you could forgive each for being perplexed exactly how they find themselves 10th and 11th in the table, locked level on 29 points, ahead of Saturday night’s meeting at St Mary’s.
It’s down to a dip in results for both sides over the past few weeks – that win over Liverpool being Saints’ only victory in their past seven league games, although they have won twice in the FA Cup.
Villa, meanwhile, will be scratching their heads how they have come away empty-handed from trips to the two Manchester clubs and Burnley, having performed adequately or admirably in all three.
The visitors are marginal favourites with most firms but it’s unsurprising the bookmakers are struggling to split the two – 5/2 on honours finishing even appeals but gung-ho Villa don’t do draws (just two all season).
Muddying the waters further is the divergence in each side’s goal habits – there have been just 10 in Saints’ past seven games but 20 over that same period for Villa.
We could be in for something resembling Southampton’s 4-3 win at Villa Park in November but then again Saints seem to have lost their mojo in front of goal, scoring just three times in their past seven.
I still think there will be at least a couple of goals in this one, though – it’s Villa after all: they managed to elicit a 3-2 thriller from Burnley and not many teams can say that.
So, with the outcome incredibly difficult to call, the best value in this game can be found in the goalscorer markets – and the value there lies with Villa, simply because they score more often.
Only twice in their past 14 games have Smith’s side failed to score – that figure rises to four for the Saints who have become slightly goal-shy as we mentioned.
It’s reasonable to assume Villa will score so the key is finding how and who – and I love the price on lively winger Bertrand Traore to find the net at any time, 4/1 with Sporting Index.
That’s surely too large a price on the Burkina Faso man who has scored four goals in his past seven appearances, registering a mammoth 20 shots during that timeframe. He’s as low as 7/1 to score first with some firms so 4s at any time is eye-opening.
Jack Grealish has eight assists for Villa this season and Ollie Watkins – back in the groove after netting in successive games – has eight goals. Unsurprisingly, you can only get just under 2/1 on either of those happening at any time here.
But if you combine the two, Sky Bet offer 13/2 on Grealish assisting a Watkins goal – with both in good form, I think a small play on Villa’s playmaker setting up their chief scorer is well worth a go.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Southampton v Aston Villa best bets
- 1pt Jack Grealish to assist a goal for Ollie Watkins at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Bertrand Traore to score any time at 4/1 (Sporting Index)
Odds correct at 1830 GMT (28/01/21)
Opta facts
- Southampton have won their last four Premier League matches against Aston Villa, their best top-flight winning run against the Villans since August 1989, when they also won four consecutively; they’ve never won five in a row against Villa in the top tier.
- Aston Villa are winless in their last eight Premier League matches against Southampton (D3 L5) since a 3-2 win in December 2013.
- Southampton have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 in the competition (W8 D5). They last lost three in a row in November 2019.
- After winning five of their first seven away league games this season (D1 L1) and keeping five clean sheets in the process, Aston Villa have lost each of their last three on the road, conceding at least twice each time.
- Since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League (47).
- Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time, last doing so in league competition in August 2018 with Brentford in the Championship.
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