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Wolves v Manchester City betting preview: Prediction, latest odds & best bets in our Premier League tips
Manchester City get their Premier League campaign under way on Monday. Joe Townsend is backing Wolves to maintain their strong record against Pep Guardiola's team.
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1pt Wolves-Draw Double Chance at 13/8
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Wolves v Manchester City
- 2015 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 5/1 | Draw 100/30 | Away 1/2
There are some teams who take a while to get going at the start of a new season, teams who may be given a bloody nose in a match which later on in the campaign they'd expect to win comfortably. Manchester City are not one of those teams.
City are unbeaten in 11 Premier League openers, and are now going for a record-breaking 10th straight win. But they have a very sticky opponent to deal with, and one chasing a piece of history themselves.
Wolves did the league double over City last season, earning them a shot at becoming the first team to beat a Pep Guardiola side in three consecutive league meetings.
Nuno's team truly are Manchester City's cryptonite, something Richard Jolly delved into in detail ahead of this intriguing encounter. So if in reading this preview you're being overcome by a sense of deja vu, then I make no apologies. In fact, I'll take it as a complement.
Rather than going into the fine minutia as Richard has already, I will quickly sum up: no-one has proven more difficult to beat in Guardiola's career than Nuno Espirito Santo and Wolves.
Their tactic of sitting deep with a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 set-up and deliberately soaking up pressure before counter punching has consistently made things difficult for City. Why would Monday night be any different?
First up, I'm going to fall back on an old favourite of mine when it comes to Wolves, and one I raised earlier in the week in our Premier League: Punting Pointers - they just love a game with under 2.5 goals.
It has occurred in 13 of Wolves' past 14 matches, and even against a Manchester City side renowned for their goalscoring - post-lockdown only three of their 14 games failed to exceed 2.5 goals - I am taking the 5/4 on offer which unsurprisingly has shortened over the course of the week.
It's happened in three of the five meetings between Pep and Nuno - there were red cards in both the games where it didn't.
As in their two defeats by Wolves last season, City look set to be without Aymeric Laporte for Monday's meeting at Molineux after he returned a positive Covid-19 test earlier this month.
Plenty has been said and written about the team's defensive frailties when the Frenchman is absent, and it is keenly felt against a potent attacking outfit such as Wolves who will prey on any lack of calmness and security at the back.
Such is Guardiola's preference for playing with a very high defensive line and pushing his full-backs high that more often than not it is opposition's wide attackers who are the ones to benefit. None more so than Adama Traore.
The Wolves winger scored three of his four league goals against City last season, relishing the space afforded to him by Guardiola's team. It makes his 13/2 anytime goalscorer odds appear generous.
Small stakes on that would be good way to go regardless, but I will be waiting until the team sheets are in. Traore lined up at wing-back in Wolves' impressive 2-0 win at Sheffield United on opening day, and as a consequence had far less of an attacking threat.
Should that happen again, my preference would be to steer clear.
Instead, I am going to go against City picking up a 10th straight opening game win. That's not to say I don't think that Pep will finally get the better of Nuno, it's just that at the price on offer there is no way I can turn it down.
Wolves and the draw in the Double Chance market is 13/8 which I consider to be superb value.
Forget everything else I've said and just remember that City have only won one of five meetings with Wolves, all within the last three years and all with the same coaches in charge. That should be enough to lean you that way.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
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Opta facts
- Wolves were one of just two sides to complete a Premier League double over Manchester City last season (also Manchester United); they last won three consecutive top-flight meetings with the Citizens back in October 1961 (seven in a row).
- Manchester City have lost four of their last seven top-flight away games at Wolves (W2 D1); the Citizens could lose at Molineux in two consecutive top-flight campaigns for the first time since losing three in a row between 1970-71 and 1972-73.
- Man City have lost both of their last two league meetings with Wolves; manager Pep Guardiola has never lost three consecutive league games against a single opponent in his entire managerial career.
- Manchester City haven’t lost their opening game in any of their last 11 Premier League seasons (W10 D1), winning the last nine in a row. No side has ever won 10 consecutive season openers in the competition before.
- Since returning to the Premier League in August 2018, Wolves have won none of their 8pm kick-offs in the top-flight (D3 L4), while opponents Man City have won nine of their 10 kick-offs at 8pm in that time (L1).
Odds correct at 1500 BST 18/09/20
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