After backing four winners in the Carabao Cup already, Joe Townsend looks to keep his run going when Tottenham play Chelsea in the fourth round.
A quick glance at these odds would understandably make anyone double take.
Across the board, both a Spurs win and the draw are priced at close to 3/1, with most bookies offering only evens on Chelsea winning in 90 minutes. The reason for those odds has nothing to do with the form of Frank Lampard's team, who have been mediocre at best this term, but is based purely and simply on Tottenham's brutal early-season fixture list.
Assuming they would've avoided an upset, that congestion was at least eased slightly by the Covid-19 enforced cancellation of their third-round tie against Leyton Orient, and consequent bye, but Spurs will still have played eight games in 22 days when the international break arrives at the end of this week.
If that doesn't sound ridiculous enough for you then this chronological list of days that Jose Mourinho's team have played games on should: Sunday, Thursday, Sunday, Thursday, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday.
Realistically, Tuesday's Carabao Cup tie simply cannot be a priority when there is a Europa League play-off two days later, and a Premier League trip to Manchester United fewer than 72 hours after that. On the face of it, Chelsea to win at 21/20 looks like a no-brainer, but for a few reasons it really isn't.
Playing a severely under-strength team in domestic cups is anathema to Mourinho. During his stints in charge of Chelsea and Manchester United he won the Carabao Cup four times, and in both of his maiden seasons at each club. Even in a period of unprecedented fixture congestion will he be willing to give up Tottenham's best chance of silverware?
Chelsea boss Frank Lampard made an interesting point last week ahead of their third-round tie with Barnsley, which they impressively won 6-0, when he said coronavirus restrictions and worries over its potential spread meant most clubs no longer have the opportunity to play an XI that is half inexperienced youngsters, half first-team. The squads have to be kept separate.
For me, that is the clincher here. Spurs to win at 3/1 and Spurs double chance at evens are prices that could leave the bookies scrambling to cut their odds when the team sheets go in, should Mourinho name a halfway decent team.
While predicting Tottenham's XI is tricky, it's less of a case with Chelsea - which brings us to one man who is almost certain to play: Ross Barkley.
The midfielder started and scored in last week's thrashing of Barnsley, but in the league he's had to settle for late cameo roles against Brighton and Liverpool, and was an unused substitute at West Brom.
He has managed four attempts on goal in fewer than a game-and-half's worth of action, on par with his average of 3.3 per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season. It makes Barkley to have 3+ total shots at 6/5 a smart play.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
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Odds correct at 1245 BST (28/09/20)
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