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Sky Bet League Two play-offs tips: Best bets, predictions and outright preview
After posting +14pts profit with his Sky Bet League Two outright preview this season, Michael Beardmore weighs up the chances of the four teams to have made the play-offs.
Football betting tips: League Two play-offs
3pts Stockport to be promoted at 7/4 (General)
League Two play-offs winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Stockport - 7/4
- Bradford - 3/1
- Carlisle - 3/1
- Salford - 10/3
Odds correct at 1100 BST (11/05/23)
Just four points separated the four teams who finished in the Sky Bet League Two play-off places, an indication of just how close we can expect the post-season battle to be.
As always with the play-offs, each has their own unique story behind their bid for glory.
North-west neighbours do battle in one semi-final as Stockport seek back-to-back promotions to continue their phoenix-like revival, while Salford look to climb another rung of a long ladder under their Class of ’92 ownership.
And in the other semi, fallen giants Bradford – under the highest-profile manager in the division, Mark Hughes – hope to reclaim past glories against Paul Simpson’s surprise packages Carlisle.
Sky Bet League Two play-offs schedule
Saturday May 13: Salford City v Stockport County (19:45 BST)
Sunday May 14: Bradford City v Carlisle United (19:00 BST)
Saturday May 20: Stockport County v Salford City (12:30 BST)
Sunday May 21: Carlisle United v Bradford City (15:00 BST)
Sunday May 28: Play-off final (13:30 BST)
Given the play-offs, by their nature, involve some of the best teams in the division, it’s always informative to look at the clubs’ records against the other top sides.
This season, the top eight – champions Leyton Orient, runners-up Stevenage, third-placed Northampton, the four play-off sides and Mansfield, in eighth, edged out on goal difference – finished 13 points clear of the rest, suggesting a clear chasm in quality.
In their 14 meetings with the other sides among that octet, three sides in the play-offs collected a respectable 22 points out 42, those being Stockport, Salford and Bradford, while Carlisle amassed a paltry 11, suggesting they beat the also-rans but fell short against the elite.
Taking it a step further and using the six regular-season meetings between our quartet, only Stockport (W3 D3) were unbeaten. Carlisle and Bradford did okay (W2 D2 L2) but Salford lagged well behind (W1 D1 L4).
Form is also an important factor and once again it’s the Hatters who come out on top, unbeaten in their final 10 games of the season, with five wins and five draws, while Salford (W6 D1 L3) and Bradford (W4 D4 L2) had respectable run-ins but Carlisle (W2 D5 L3) rather limped in.
That Stockport sequence is not a late surge either – they took a few weeks to adjust to the new level after being promoted back into the Football League but since October their form has not only been promotion-worthy, it’s been title-winning material.
From an xG perspective, once again it’s Dave Challinor’s County who shine – their excellent Expected Goal Difference of +0.65 per game (1.74 xGF, 1.09 xGA) second only to promoted Stevenage, with Carlisle (+0.24) next best of the four.
Salford’s xGA of 1.42 per game, the division’s eighth worst defensive process, and Bradford’s xGD of just +0.03 suggests both may well been fortunate to pip Mansfield (+0.43 xGD) to a play-off spot.
It’s no surprise, considering all the above, that STOCKPORT are favourites with the bookmakers TO WIN THE LEAGUE TWO PLAY-OFFS and it is difficult to argue a case otherwise.
Had they started the season just a smidgeon better, they would be up already and despite seeing them fall just short of rewarding our +14pts profitable outright preview with even higher returns, I'm happy to go in on the Hatters again.
Stockport did miss out on automatic promotion on the final day but that disappointment should be easy to shake off considering it was never really in their hands and, after coming up last year, they are playing with house money, so to speak.
There is no pressure on the Hatters to go up again and that should provide them with freedom, while the expectation from Bradford’s big fanbase and Salford’s glitzy board could be stifling.
Salford are the division’s highest scorers and, having been convinced that the winner of last year’s semi between Port Vale and Swindon would go up (they did), I’m equally confident the victor of their clash with Stockport will triumph at Wembley.
The Ammies pose the biggest threat to County, who'll be odds-on should they reach the final to face either Bradford or Carlisle - that semi is a complete coin flip, although, if pushed, I expect 28-goal marksman Andy Cook to send the Bantams through.
Either way, as we’ve detailed, Stockport are the best of the four teams in almost every conceivable metric and we can back famed long throw merchant Challinor to launch them up another level with full confidence.
Sky Bet League Two play-offs best bets
- Stockport to be promoted at 7/4 (General)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (11/05/23)
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