- @MickeyBeardmore recorded +19.8pts profit in his 2023-24 League Two season outright preview
Football betting tips: Sky Bet League Two
3pts Doncaster Rovers to be promoted at 9/4 (General)
League Two play-offs winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- MK Dons - 5/4
- Doncaster 9/4
- Crewe - 4/1
- Crawley - 5/1
Odds correct at 1545 BST (02/05/24)
On February 11, approximately two-thirds of the Sky Bet League Two season had been played. At that time, Crawley Town sat 15th in the table and Doncaster Rovers were 20th. Yes, 20th.
Fast forward fewer than three months and they could meet each in the play-off final. Yep, the often-bonkers fourth tier has done it again, folks.
So, the question to be settled is namely: Will one of the form horses stay the distance - or will it be one of the thoroughbreds, MK Dons and Crewe, who have helped set the pace all season, that emerges triumphant?
Interestingly, all four teams have overperformed their Expected Points total by double figures this season according to footballxg.com, with only MK Dons fully deserving of their top-seven spot on such metrics.
Sky Bet League Two play-offs schedule
Monday May 6: Crawley vs MK Dons (15:00 BST), Crewe vs Doncaster (17:30 BST)
Thursday May 9: MK Dons vs Crawley (20:00 BST)
Friday May 10: Doncaster vs Crewe (20:00 BST)
Sunday May 19: Play-off final (TBC)
Crawley creep in
Little was expected of Crawley Town this season after a disastrous 2022-23 campaign in which they so nearly lost their Football League status, finishing 22nd, just one place and three points from dropping back into the National League.
Their owners, American cryptocurrency investment firm WAGMI, hogged headlines, especially when chairman Preston Johnson took to the dugout for a game but Scott Lindsey did a fantastic job after taking over in January to guide them to safety.
‘We want our Crawley back’ sing the travelling fans ‘We want WAGMI out’ and ‘You’re not fit to run our club,’ all aimed at American NFT investment group WAGMI United, led by Preston Johnson (who picked the team tonight here @StevenageFC) and Eben Smith pic.twitter.com/eHpQeDwpRv
— Layth (@laythy29) December 30, 2022
The Red Devils were still among the pre-season favourites for relegation, though, and when they sold last season's top scorer Dom Telford to Barrow in August, such worries intensified.
But they were never close to trouble, not dipping below 15th, helped by a fine start that saw them sit second after 10 games, having won six of those.
Such form was always going to be difficult to maintain given the heavyweight nature of the promotion race but Scott Lindsey's side have proven a streaky outfit - they are hot and cold, as evidenced by the fact they have drawn just seven of 46 games.
Eight wins in 11 during February, March and early April launched them into the play-offs and they kept hold of seventh spot despite limping to the finish.
But they are outsiders for a reason, struggling when it came to meetings with the big boys - W1 L5 against their fellow play-off sides and taking just 15 points from 48 against the top nine combined.
Dons doing the bounce-back?
Falling just one place short of earning our outright season preview an each-way return, it's been a strange old season for MK Dons.
The last time they were relegated to the fourth tier, in 2018, they bounced straight back up and have the chance to repeat that feat, thanks chiefly to the impact Mike Williamson has had as boss since joining from Gateshead.
MK had won four of their first five games under Graham Alexander but an eight-match winless run, and concerns over style of play, led to his dismissal.
Since Williamson took the reins, they've been a joy to watch, scoring considerably more goals (83) than any of the other play-off teams (Doncaster and Crawley next, both on 73) and capable of blowing sides away.
However, that approach can come undone against the division's better teams as evidenced by chastening defeats to Stockport (5-0), Mansfield (4-1), Bradford (4-0) and Doncaster (3-0) since the turn of the year.
Railwaymen hitting the buffers
Lee Bell's Crewe Alexandra have sat in the top five for the majority of the season but ended up nervously looking over their shoulders after a very underwhelming final couple of months of the campaign.
Having won just two of their last 12 games, the Alex head into the play-offs in the worst form of the four sides involved and, as a result, it is difficult to get too enthused about their prospects.
Bell has done incredibly well to get his young squad to consistently over-perform throughout the campaign and they should not be underestimated but it's tough to shake the notion their peak may already have passed.
Losing your last three home games all by a 3-0 score - including two to teams in the bottom four, Grimsby and relegated Forest Green - is hardly ideal preparation for the play-offs, although it may perhaps have lowered pressure and expectation levels.
Form since February (last 16 games, 48 possible points)
- Doncaster - 39
- Crawley - 30
- MK Dons - 27
- Crewe - 20
Rovers on rampage
You would struggle to find a more in-form team in the world right now than Doncaster Rovers.
Since the start of February, they have been absolutely majestic, putting up a sequence of W13 D4 L1 from their last 18 games, including a run of 10 successive victories that totally transformed their season.
From worrying about being dragged into a relegation battle, they now have a shot at exiting League Two via the far more preferable route.
Joe Ironside, Hakeeb Adelekun and Luke Molyneux are scoring goals for fun, and contributing assists too but Rovers have also improved defensively, keeping clean sheets in six of that 10-match winning run.
It also should not go unnoticed that Rovers have beaten all three of their play-off rivals to nil (3-0 vs MK Dons and 2-0 vs both Crewe and Crawley) since the calendars turned from 2023 to 2024.
They are riding on the crest of a wave and odds of 9/4 on DONCASTER TO BE PROMOTED simply have to be backed on a team so high on confidence and with a real psychological edge over the rest of their competition.
Odds correct at 1645 BST (02/05/24)
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