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Sky Bet League Two betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 2021-22 season
EFL expert Michael Beardmore is back after a profitable season, and picks out his top outright selections for the 2021-22 Sky Bet League Two campaign.
Football betting tips: League Two outright preview
3pts e.w. Bradford City to win League Two at 12/1 (Betway) (1/4 odds 1-3 places)
3pts Newport County to finish in the top seven at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Stevenage to be promoted at 16/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Rochdale to be relegated at 12/1 (Betway)
In the past decade, out of 40 teams to be relegated from League One, only eight have bounced straight back up, Bolton and Plymouth the most recent examples in the past two campaigns.
That’s not a statistic that bodes well for the sides that have come down this year and is probably proof there is little difference between the third tier’s bottom half and the fourth tier’s top half.
It would also explain why only one of the four relegated clubs – Joey Barton’s Bristol Rovers – are anywhere near the top of the betting for League Two promotion.
Of the four divisions, League Two is always the most difficult to call, financial differences not as wide among the 24 clubs as they are above, meaning promotion – and relegation – is often wide open.
And while we detailed in our League One preview that teams who finish well the season before can carry that on into promotion the following year, it’s not so simple with the fourth tier.
Analysing the promoted teams of recent years, it’s a mix of relegated sides, a couple of back-to-back promotions from the National League and clubs who pretty much finished anywhere in League Two the season before.
Cambridge and Morecambe, who had poor seasons in 2019-20, but were promoted last term, are the prime examples.
Do the relegated League One sides appeal?
None of the sides coming down convince much in truth. Northampton and Rochdale - more on the latter later - have rookie managers embarking on rebuilds, Swindon have endured a horrendous summer only now yielding light at the end of the tunnel through a takeover, and will surely be content with consolidation.
Barton’s Rovers are second favourites for promotion but he has a lot of work to do after 13 defeats in his 18 games in charge consigned them to bottom spot last term even if the rot had set in earlier.
Sky Bet League Two 21/22 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 6/1 - Salford
- 10/1 - Bradford
- 11/1 - Bristol Rovers
- 12/1 - Exeter, Mansfield
- 14/1 - Forest Green Rovers, Leyton Orient
- 16/1 - Newport, Port Vale, Tranmere
- 18/1 - Carlisle, Northampton
Odds correct at 1215 BST (03/08/21)
Sky Bet are paying 4 places instead of 3 (1/5 odds) on all each-way bets on Sky Bet EFL league winners
Rovers, in fairness, have been among League Two’s prime recruiters this summer – Aaron Collins, Paul Coutts and Luke Thomas, the latter on loan, all appearing standout signings.
I’d be surprised if they did not finish as the top relegated side, given the lack of opposition in that betting group, but it’s skinny at 7/4 especially given Barton’s recent off-field issues.
Who will win League Two?
The club with likely the division’s biggest budget, Salford City, top the outright betting at 7/4, best price, for promotion but I can’t get enthused about a team that has finished 11th and eighth in the past two seasons with the spending power they possess.
Bringing in Conor McAleny from Oldham and Fleetwood’s Josh Morris, this might be the year the Class of ’92-owned outfit goes up, with Gary Bowyer a steady hand at the stern, but the price is too short.
I’ve got to be honest, I was tipping up BRADFORD CITY for promotion in my head the minute Derek Adams announced he was leaving promoted Morecambe for the Bantams.
Adams has four promotions under his belt – two from League Two with Plymouth and Morecambe, the latter almost a miracle, transforming a club that had finished in the bottom half of the fourth tier for nine years out of 10, as well as taking Ross County from Scottish Division Two to the top flight.
I remember interviewing him at the end of last season, asking what the reason for the turnaround in Morecambe’s fortunes was. He answered that the reason was pretty obvious – meaning ‘ME!’ without actually saying it. With his record, it’s hard to argue.
With Adams at the wheel, Bradford, arguably League Two’s biggest club, should challenge and it’s important to factor in the return of supporters – no other fourth-tier side gets anywhere near the 14-15,000 they attract on average per home game.
After a storming mid-season run last term threatened to turn a relegation battle into a play-off spot, Bradford ran out of steam and goals at the end, but Adams has already added nous all over the pitch with summer signings such as Andy Cook, Liam Ridehalgh, Abo Eisa and Morecambe’s Yann Songo’o.
I can’t see them failing to challenge and 12/1 on BRADFORD CITY TO WIN LEAGUE TWO looks ultra-appealing when you put all the pieces of the puzzle together. We can take each-way terms of 1-3 places at 1/4 of the odds, ensuring a profit as long as they finish in the top three.
Who will finish in League Two's top seven?
Elsewhere, Nigel Clough’s Mansfield are among the favourites, at 3/1 for promotion or 12/1 for the title, but I cannot get behind a club that has flattered to deceive so often as the Stags have in recent times.
Forest Green and Tranmere reached the play-offs last term and could go well again without either truly convincing, while Leyton Orient should improve under the experienced Kenny Jackett, who I’m amazed to see drop down to League Two.
The O’s are not a bad price at all at 16/1 given the nous Jackett will bring, but I just feel this might be a two-season job for him to get them up.
The team, other than Bradford, that stands out to me in the betting is losing play-off finalists NEWPORT COUNTY, who are, for some reason, being treated as also-rans by the bookmakers.
At 20/1 to win the division, they are lumped in with several sides who finished in the bottom half last year and while I know the Exiles have lost three big players – Josh Sheehan, Joss Labadie and Liam Shepard – they still have the majority of the team that finished fifth last term. A team that was top four for xGA (expected goals against) and top 10 for xGF (expected goals for).
They also still have Michael Flynn behind the wheel and the County boss has proven he can fashion a team that is greater than the sum of its parts at Rodney Parade.
While 20s looks big, I’m sticking with Bradford to win the league and Newport’s habit of challenging but never quite succeeding means I’m taking a pass on an Exiles promotion at 9/2 too.
But the price that does entice is bet365's 5/2 about NEWPORT TO FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN, a feat they have achieved in two of Flynn’s three full seasons in charge. That's big when you consider some firms, rightly, go as low as 6/4.
Given the rise of both Cambridge and Morecambe last season, I’m convinced there are each-way profits to be found in the bottom half of last season’s table.
You only to have look back through recent years to see relatively small and unfashionable clubs such as Morecambe, Burton, Accrington and AFC Wimbledon are capable of going up from League Two.
Colchester (20/1 to win the league) and Walsall (25/1) – two teams with progressive young bosses in Hayden Mullins and Matt Taylor – could challenge but they are relatively big clubs at this level and I’m sticking with the minnow theme.
Which outsider should be backed in League Two?
I looked at Barrow as their new boss Mark Cooper always seems to fashion sides that challenge at this level – but I was even more astounded to see STEVENAGE as long as 16/1 to be promoted from League Two.
They fit the Morecambe mould as an improving side and seem to have hit on a happy formula after promoting striker Alex Revell to the hotseat.
A run of just one defeat in 15 matches between February and April last season gave them genuine play-off aspirations before three narrow defeats – all by a goal – set them back.
But Revell had them incredibly well drilled, conceding just 41 goals – the third best defence in the division – and they have retained the majority of their squad.
Chuck in additions like experienced midfielder Jake Taylor from Exeter, and promising striker Jamie Reid from Mansfield, and I can’t quite comprehend why Stevenage are among the favourites for relegation.
It’s speculative for sure but this division rewards punts more than most and I can’t ignore ridiculous prices like the 16/1 on offer for STEVENAGE TO BE PROMOTED.
They are available at 66/1 to win the league, with 1/4 of the odds for three places each-way, but that means we get a 16.5/1 shot should they finish second or third, and a loser if they were to go up in the play-offs. Backing them for promotion at 16/1 therefore makes the most sense, as after all, this is a team seen as major outsiders who are unlikely to win the title.
Who will be relegated from League Two?
Of all the divisions, the League Two relegation battle is always the trickiest to tip because of the simple fact that only two sides go down.
That said, I think ROCHDALE TO BE RELEGATED is worth a play at 12/1.
In the past seven seasons, three teams have suffered back-to-back relegations to drop into non-league.
Now while Swindon might well be in the equation, their takeover is now complete and I have a feeling they will turn the corner – regardless, many bookies aren’t offering odds on them so there’s no value if you can’t bet.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have lost both of their top scorers – Stephen Humphrys and Matty Lund – from last season, appointed a rookie manager in Robbie Stockdale and brought in no players of note.
Add in a potential takeover wrangle that’s ongoing and I’m stunned that Dale aren’t among the favourites to go down. I’ll be searching out odds on Stevenage to finish above them, that’s for sure.
Sky Bet League Two 2021-22: Outright best bets
- 3pts e.w. Bradford City to win League Two at 12/1 (Betway) (1/4 odds 1-3 places)
- 3pts Newport County to finish in the top seven at 5/2 (bet365)
- 1pt Stevenage to be promoted at 16/1 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Rochdale to be relegated at 12/1 (Betway)
Odds correct at 12:15 BST (03/08/21)
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