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Sky Bet League One play-offs tips: Best bets, predictions and outright preview
Four teams are three games away from promotion to the Championship. James Cantrill picks out his best bets from the League One play-offs.
Football betting tips: League One
4pts Barnsley to be promoted at 5/2 (General)
1pts Barnsley winner, Sheffield Wednesday runner up at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
League One play-offs winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Sheffield Wednesday - 13/8
- Barnsley - 5/2
- Bolton - 7/2
- Peterborough - 4/1
Odds correct at 0955 BST (10/05/23)
Tom Carnduff paints the play-off picture perfectly in his Championship preview, give that a read to get in the spirit of the games, and then I will set the scene in the third tier.
After an enthralling season, four teams battle it out in the Sky Bet League One play-offs with a spot in the Championship up for grabs, scripts will be re-written and legends will be made, there’s no doubt about it.
Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley, Bolton and Peterborough are all gunning for the third and final ticket out of the division, and despite it being dubbed a lottery, the odds suggest otherwise.
At 13/8, the Owls blend of experience and quality has a 38.1% chance of emerging in the second tier next season.
Sky Bet League One play-offs schedule
Friday May 12: Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday (20:00 BST)
Saturday May 13: Bolton v Barnsley (15:00 BST)
Thursday May 18: Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough (20:00 BST)
Friday May 19: Barnsley v Bolton (20:00 BST)
Monday May 29: Play-off final (15:00 BST)
Sheffield Wednesday skewed the play-off picture with their outrageous points haul of 96, a tally that would have seen them promoted as champions in half of the last 10 seasons.
Despite ultimately finishing two points behind Ipswich, their automatic charge detailed back in mid-March, as George Byers hobbled off in a 1-0 victory at Fratton Park.
The Owls went on to win one of their next eight games, squandering what was once an eight point cushion over third.
Byers is yet to remerge for the streaky South Yorkshire side, and will not feature in their play-off campaign.
Despite the heartache of that injury and missing out on automatics, Darren Moore’s men have won their last four on the spin, and look poised to hit their peak just in time for the play-offs.
They’ll have to navigate their way around Peterborough, the inform side of the four.
Darren Ferguson's team did not book their place in the play-offs until the final day, thanks to their victory at Oakwell combined with Derby's defeat at Hillsborough.
No doubt that will galvanise the Posh squad, the impact of the final day drama is unquantifiable, but the sides over-reliance on Jonson Clarke-Harris is.
The frontman finished as the division's joint-top goalscorer with 26, making him directly responsible for 35% of his side's 75 league goals.
He started all bar one of Peterborough’s 46 league games this season, coming off the bench in a 1-0 loss at Bristol Rovers.
If the opposition can keep him quiet, maybe they will nullify Peterborough.
On the other half of the draw sits my fancy for PROMOTION, at 5/2, BARNSLEY looks like the market value.
The Reds almost forced themselves into the automatic conversation with their form at the back end of winter, taking 30 points from a possible 36.
Defeat as they hosted Ipswich in their penultimate home game eventually ended that.
That loss was only the second time they failed to win at home in 15 attempts.
Micheal Duff’s success in South Yorkshire has been built on a number of things, a relentless high press, rigid tactics, shrewd signings, but it is form at Oakwell that has carried his side over the line.
Only champions Plymouth, won more games at home (20) than the Reds (16).
Finishing fourth could pay dividends, it ensures the second leg is played on Barnsley’s home patch.
The Reds don’t mind a trip to Wembley either, or Oakwell South as it is known around Town. They won twice there in 2016, lifting the Football League Trophy before securing promotion to the Championship via the play-offs.
Assuming Barnsley prevail against Bolton, I think they will meet Sheffield Wednesday in the capital, a side they completed the double over domestically.
The Reds were the only League One side to beat Wednesday at Hillsborough this season, scoring twice without reply. Duff’s side put another four past them in the reverse.
At 9/2, doubling down on BARNSLEY PROMOTION with SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY RUNNER UP is worth a tout.
Sky Bet League One play-offs best bets
- 4pts Barnsley to be promoted at 5/2 (General)
- 1pts Barnsley winner, Sheffield Wednesday runner up at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1545 BST (10/05/23)
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