After a profitable season last term, EFL expert Michael Beardmore picks out his top outright selections for the 2021-22 Sky Bet League One campaign.
Football betting tips: League One outright preview
2pts MK Dons to be promoted at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w. MK Dons to win League One at 20/1 (General) (1/4 odds 1-3 places)
3pts Charlton to be promoted at 4/1 (General)
2pts Cheltenham to finish as top promoted team at 4/1 (Betfred)
It will perhaps be no surprise that the Sky Bet League One outright betting is headed by Sunderland, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday – three clubs historically unused to third-tier football.
However, League One has become somewhat of a giants’ graveyard in recent years, with club size and stature no guarantee of a return to the upper echelons of the English game.
For every Hull City (2020-21), Blackburn Rovers (2017-18), Wigan (2015-16 and 2017-18) and Wolves (2013-14) who’ve bounced straight back up to the Championship, far more relegated clubs have failed to do so.
Sunderland will be beginning their fourth season in the third tier, Ipswich their third, while Bolton, Portsmouth and Coventry dropped further, even if all had extenuating, usually financial, circumstances to blame.
A tough division to escape from
Charlton, once Premier League stalwarts, have been in League One for four of the past five seasons. Sheffield United (6), Leeds (3), Nottingham Forest (3) and Southampton (2) all took longer, much longer in some cases, to escape than expected.
Let’s inspect the promoted teams the past five seasons – 2021: Hull, Peterborough, Blackpool. 2020: Coventry, Rotherham, Wycombe. 2019: Luton, Charlton, Barnsley. 2018: Wigan, Blackburn, Rotherham. 2017: Sheffield United, Bolton, Millwall.
Now there are some big clubs in there, no doubt, but there are several who came from nowhere to reach the Championship. Go back a handful of years further and you can add Burton and Yeovil to the list too.
Who will win League One?
This unpredictable nature means it's difficult to make a case for the shorter-priced teams.
It would take a brave man to back continual let-downs Sunderland – who have lost 26-goal top scorer Charlie Wyke to Wigan – to go up under a manager, Lee Johnson, who doesn't have a promotion on his CV.
Boardroom concerns linger around relegated Sheffield Wednesday, who have had a huge summer clear-out since relegation with recruitment minimal at time of writing and the future of star man Josh Windass uncertain.
Given Paul Cook is a proven commodity at this level, Ipswich present better value at the same price across the board. He's made solid acquisitions including Rekeem Harper and Joe Pigott. But they also have new owners, and a reshuffled squad takes time to settle.
Sky Bet League One 21/22 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 7/1 - Sunderland, Ipswich
- 8/1 - Sheffield Wednesday
- 11/1 - Charlton, Wigan
- 12/1 - Lincoln, Portsmouth
- 14/1 - Rotherham
- 16/1 - Oxford
- 18/1 - Bolton, MK Dons, Wycombe
Odds correct at 19:00 BST (29/07/21)
Sky Bet are paying 4 places instead of 3 (1/5 odds) on all each-way bets on Sky Bet EFL league winners
It would be no shock if any of those three went up – and I suspect one will. If you want to back one of the 'Big Three', Ipswich would be my shout but, with all three, the skinny prices mean the risk, for me, outweighs the reward.
The prices are longer, of course, to win the division than on promotion but none of the three - Sunderland at 7s, Ipswich at 9s and Wednesday at 10s - offer much in terms of each-way value. Again, Ipswich are preferred but I'm content to look elsewhere.
Who will be promoted to the Championship?
The majority of League One surprise packages – and I use that term loosely as many are still big clubs at third-tier level – have finished well the season before. There are a handful of sides who did so last term, and of those, three of the top six in the form table went up.
Of the others, Oxford have lost in the play-offs in successive seasons and I worry about a hangover, as well as the loss of key defensive duo Rob Atkinson and Josh Ruffels, while striker Olamide Shodipo, back at QPR after his loan, needs replacing.
It's the other two teams in that 12-game end-of-season form table I'm siding with, beginning with MILTON KEYNES DONS, who have shown evidence of progression under manager Russell Martin over the past 12 months.
They finished 13th but were in the play-off conversation until the final fortnight and had a positive goal difference. MK had the fourth best defence based on expected goals against (xGA) and were ranked in the top 10 according to expected goals for (xGF).
MK should have finished higher based on performance metrics but paid the price for a slow start - one win in their opening eight games - and an early springtime blip.
Dons have lost a couple of players in the summer – most notably young left-back Harry Sorinola to the Belgian top flight – but, further forward, have brought in some talent.
Scott Twine excelled in a relegated Swindon side, while striker Max Watters, who shone in League Two with Crawley, has arrived on loan from Cardiff and Mo Eisa has joined on an undisclosed fee from promoted Peterborough.
They fit the profile of a team on the up. I fancy them to replicate the achievements of a Peterborough or Blackpool. The 6/1 you can find generally on MK DONS TO BE PROMOTED feels like a smart bet.
I think they are worth a play in the outright too at 20/1 TO WIN THE DIVISION, with most firms paying 1/4 each-way odds. That’s a nice comfort blanket should they finish third but fail to go up.
I'm also backing CHARLTON to pen a fourth League One promotion, and fifth overall, on the CV of boss Nigel Adkins, although I was torn between the Addicks and relegated Rotherham in the next bunch after the 'Big Three'.
The Millers have been a yo-yo club in recent years, promoted in each of their past three campaigns at this level.
Infogol’s model had them finishing 16th in the second tier last term – that Rotherham went down was almost completely due to two coronavirus outbreaks that left them massively playing catch-up in an already stacked fixture list.
They are worth a look at 9/2 for promotion but have lost quite a few of last season's squad, with few reinforcements arriving through the other door, and that just pushes me in the direction of Charlton instead.
Finally free of off-field woes, they finished last season strongly after Adkins took over from Birmingham-bound Lee Bowyer, losing just one of his 10 matches in charge and missing out on a play-off position by only goal difference in seventh spot.
They have admittedly lost top scorer Chuks Aneke, who has followed Bowyer to Blues, but have turned Jayden Stockley's loan move into a permanent one to replace him and have recruited smartly elsewhere.
Adkins twice took Scunthorpe up from the third tier and was also promoted as Southampton boss. I believe he can continue last season's momentum - a general 4/1 on CHARLTON TO BE PROMOTED is among the better prices to be found in the division.
Champions Cheltenham can go well
Relegation is a tough task to call. Three promoted sides, Cambridge, Cheltenham and Morecambe, along with AFC Wimbledon and Accrington, are the favourites at short prices but Plymouth are worth a look at 4/1.
The Pilgrims finished last season poorly and ranked as the worst defence in League One standings according to xGA as well as conceding 80 goals – the second most in the division. Fail to patch that leaky defence up and they could be in trouble.
It's not a strong enough hunch to tip though and I was going to leave it there with the two promotion shouts. Until I saw the 4/1 on offer with Betfred on CHELTENHAM TO BE THE TOP PROMOTED TEAM.
That price is an insult to the League Two champions who, you may recall, gave a strong Manchester City side a fight in last season’s FA Cup fourth round, threatening a shock by leading before losing 3-1 to three goals in the final 10 minutes.
Of the other promoted teams, two have lost top scorers – Cambridge (9/2) their 32-goal marksman Paul Mullin, with Carlos Mendes Gomes leaving Morecambe (11/2) for Luton, while Shrimps boss Derek Adams has also departed for Bradford.
I think both will be targeting mere survival and that leaves this market, for me, as a two-horse race – 4/1 Cheltenham vs 4/7 Bolton. And while I understand why the Trotters are favourites, that disparity in odds is worth taking on.
Bolton have been too unstable for too long and while they rallied in the second half of last season to win promotion, odds-on is unbackable. Michael Duff’s progressive Robins offer far more value at the prices.
Cheltenham – top two in both xGF and xGA in League Two last season – have maintained virtually their entire title-winning squad.
The 4/1 price looks far too big.
Sky Bet League One 2021-22: Outright best bets
- MK Dons to be promoted at 6/1 (General)
- MK Dons to win League One at 20/1 (General) (e.w. 1/4 odds at 1-3 places)
- Charlton Athletic to be promoted at 4/1 (General)
- Cheltenham Town to finish as top promoted team at 4/1 (General)
Odds correct at 19:00 BST (29/07/21)
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