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Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Saturday March 7
With profit returned in last weekend's preview, Tom Carnduff is searching for more and has two best bets in the Sky Bet EFL.
Recommended bets
1pt Charlton to beat Middlesbrough and over 2.5 goals in the match at 17/4
1pt Sam Clucas to score anytime in Stoke v Hull at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Charlton v Middlesbrough
A clash between two sides who are battling to avoid the drop down to Sky Bet League One.
Charlton were seemingly up against it from day one. Poor ownership was combined with a lack of investment in the playing squad but Lee Bowyer did the best he could with the resources available to him.
Since then, there's been a takeover and a feeling for the fans that they have their club back. They could look to strengthen significantly in the summer but first they have to survive in England's second tier.
In Middlesbrough, they face a side experiencing a season of transition. From missing out on the play-offs on the final day of last season to battling to avoid survival now, it shouldn't have been this bad.
They picked up a point against promotion-chasing Nottingham Forest last time out but it was a game to forget, if I had to describe the game in a polite manner.
Going into this contest, I was really surprised to see Charlton as the outsiders. Both sides are struggling, but they don't justify their 2/1 general price for three points.
Bowyer's men earned victories in two of their last three at home and crucially they came against Barnsley and Luton - teams they are battling against at the bottom of the table.
Across the course of this season, Charlton's home form has been good. They sit 13th in the home standings after gaining seven wins and five draws from 18 outings.
In Middlesbrough, they take on a team who sit 22nd in the away standings. Just two of their 17 on the road have ended in victory and that poor run should continue at the Valley.
The 2/1 is appealing enough but it's worth squeezing out the extra value in this game by going for goals as well. Charlton sit fourth in the Championship for games with over 2.5 goals in them (22 from 36) while Boro have seen three or more goals in two of their last three on the road.
Best bet: Charlton to beat Middlesbrough and over 2.5 goals in the match at 17/4
Opta facts
- Charlton last hosted Middlesbrough in the Championship in March 2016, winning 2-0 under Jose Riga.
- Middlesbrough have won nine of their last 12 games against Charlton in all competitions (D2 L1).
- Charlton have kept just two clean sheets in their last 25 games in all competitions, conceding five goals across their last two games without scoring in defeats to Sheffield Wednesday (0-1) and Huddersfield Town (0-4).
- Middlesbrough are winless in 12 games in all competitions, last enduring a longer run between October 1981 and March 1982 (22 matches).
- Charlton are looking to record back to back home league wins for the first time this season, last doing so at Championship level in April 2016.
- Lewis Wing has scored four of Middlesbrough’s last six Championship goals and has had more shots than any other Middlesbrough player this season (71).
Stoke v Hull
Another battle between two teams aiming to avoid the drop sees Stoke take on Hull.
Unfortunately for the visitors, they are the more fancied of the two to be relegated to League One. Hull are currently 5/2 to go down, which looks the value bet of the current relegation contenders.
Grant McCann's men are now winless in eleven games and were hammered by Leeds 4-0 last time out. They look very poor in that contest; a performance that backs up what the statistics are saying.
There's little reason to believe that their fortunes will turn round on Saturday. Stoke have lost just one of their last eight games in front of their own supporters, with five wins picked up on that run.
Stoke's 8/13 price is well worth including in the weekend accumulators but the price as a single provides little value. Instead, it's worth delving into the goalscorer market and backing Sam Clucas to net anytime at a huge price of 7/2.
The midfielder has enjoyed the season, despite the Potters' struggles, posting eight goals and two assists in the league so far. Mainly operating as a centre midfielder, Clucas can also play in the attacking positions and out wide when required.
His goal record makes the 7/2 best price on a goal look a tad generous. The value is reaffirmed by looking into his shots statistics, which highlight how the Stoke man isn't afraid to try and find the back of the net.
The 29-year-old has seen two or more shots in 19 different league games this season, with ten of those seeing at least three. His last two games have also seen a shot in each.
Against weak opposition, we could expect Clucas to hit the 3+ marker as he has done throughout the campaign. The home side should win with a comfortable margin in a contest where the midfielder gets onto the scoresheet.
Best bet: Sam Clucas to score anytime at 7/2
Opta facts
- Stoke have won their last five home league games against Hull City, conceding only once in that run of wins.
- Hull are looking to complete a league double over Stoke for the first time, in what is the 32nd Football League season they’ve faced.
- Stoke have lost just one of their last eight home league games (W5 D2), having lost six of their previous eight home games before this run.
- Hull are winless in 11 games in all competitions (D2 L9), conceding 26 goals across this run including four or more in three separate games.
- Since Michael O’Neill’s first home Championship match in charge of Stoke in November, only Derby (seven) have conceded fewer home goals than the Potters (eight).
- Hull have won none of the seven league games that haven’t featured the now-departed Jarrod Bowen this season (D2 L5). The Tigers’ last Championship win without Bowen featuring was back in April 2018 against Burton Albion.
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Odds correct as of 0900 GMT on 05/03/2020
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