Tom Carnduff is back on Sky Bet EFL tipping duty this weekend and he picks out two best bets to back.
Recommended bets
2pts 13+ corners in Leeds v Reading at 2/1
1pt Lynden Gooch to score two or more goals in Sunderland v Bristol Rovers at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Reading
Leeds' bid for the Premier League looked like it had collapsed completely following an awful opening month to 2020 but a draw with Brentford, combined with victory over Bristol City, suggests that they have turned the corner.
Their next few fixtures are kind. In fact, the only top-seven team they have left to play is Fulham at home. Ideal for the final run-in.
The Whites are heavy odds-on for a win again here with Reading 11/1 outsiders. Little value in the outright market, particularly with the issues Leeds have had in front of goal.
Instead, it's worth going down our favoured route of corners. Leeds continue to see a high figure in this area and the trend should continue as they face a side in the lower part of the division.
Marcelo Bielsa's men have taken at least ten corners in three of their last four contests. The one that fell short, a 2-0 defeat away at Nottingham Forest, still saw a big total of eight.
Over 12.5 corners in the match is available at a best price of 2/1, although there is 15/8 available elsewhere. That looks great value in a contest where the home side should be on the front foot throughout.
Best bet: 13+ corners at 2/1
Opta facts
- Leeds United have won their last three Championship matches against Reading without conceding a goal.
- Reading have lost three of their last four away league visits to Leeds, winning the other in October 2017.
- Leeds are looking to pick up consecutive league wins for the first time since a run of seven in November/December. Leeds have lost four of their last seven league games, as many as they had in their first 26 this season.
- Reading have won just one of their last eight league games (D4 L3), though it was their last Championship fixture (3-0 vs Sheffield Wednesday).
- After a run of eight games without a goal, Reading’s George Puscas has scored in consecutive league games. 67% of his goals for Reading this season have been scored away from home (6/9).
Sunderland v Bristol Rovers
Sunderland have experienced a huge upturn in form under Phil Parkinson's guidance.
The former Bolton and Bradford boss found things tough to begin with but it's been a positive 2020 for the club so far.
The 2-0 defeat away at Portsmouth was the only time they've failed to win in this calendar year. They bounced back from that with three consecutive wins though and that's why they dominate favouritism across the market here.
Even Sunderland on the -1 handicap are a price of 6/4. The home side are fancied to get three points and do so in a game with goals.
Therefore, the value is in the goalscorer market and going for a big price on a Sunderland forward. 12/1 is available as a best price for Lynden Gooch to grab a brace with 10/1 across the board.
The winger has averaged a goal roughly every two games across his last eleven fixtures, with a brace in their last home game against Rochdale.
Gooch has posted at least two shots in four of his last eight Sky Bet League One games and there's every chance that total will be hit in a game against weaker opposition.
Rovers have failed to win any of their last seven away fixtures, conceding three goals in four of those. Sunderland and Gooch should enjoy another afternoon at the Stadium of Light.
Best bet: Lynden Gooch to score two or more goals at 12/1
Opta facts
- In their league history, Sunderland have hosted Bristol Rovers on more occasions without ever losing than any other side (13 – W8 D5).
- Bristol Rovers have lost each of their last four games with Sunderland in all competitions, conceding at least twice each time.
- Sunderland have taken more points than any other League One side in 2020, winning seven of their 10 matches (D2 L1).
- Bristol Rovers secured their first win in 12 League One games last time out at home to Blackpool; however, the Pirates are winless on the road in the competition since mid-December (D3 L3).
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (20/02/20)
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