Tom Carnduff has found two best bets from the three divisions this week - available at prices of 5/1 and 7/1.
Recommended bets
1pt Peterborough to beat Sunderland and over 3.5 goals in the match at 7/1
2pts Danny Mayor to score anytime in Northampton v Plymouth at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Millwall v Hull
A game that Millwall will be expecting to win given their fairly decent start to the season. They've picked up eight points from their opening five games, putting them 10th in the standings.
In Hull, they face a team who have only managed one win and find themselves situated at the area of the table we expect them to be for the majority of the campaign.
Millwall will know how important it is to pick up results from home. Two 1-0 victories gives them the perfect record in front of their own supporters so far, while they have only managed two draws away.
Aerial duels will be key here, as they are for the majority of Millwall's games this season, and no side has managed to get the better of Neil Harris' side for that statistic in the league so far.
It's one of the reasons why Matt Smith already has two goals on his tally, alongside another assist. It should have been more though; Smith leads the Championship in big chances missed with four.
There is 2/1 available on the striker to score anytime in this one, which looks a great price given the contest.
Best bet: Matt Smith to score anytime at 2/1
Opta facts
- Millwall are winless in three home league games against Hull (W0 D2 L1), though they won an FA Cup tie at the Den last season against the Tigers.
- Hull have only lost one of their last six league games against Millwall (W3 D2 L1), a 1-2 defeat in March 2018 at the KC Stadium.
- Millwall haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 12 league games, netting seven goals in the process.
- Hull City have won just once in their last 10 league matches, losing on six occasions (D3).
- 10th placed Millwall have completed fewer passes (693) and averaged less possession (29%) than any other Championship team this term.
- Hull’s Kamil Grosicki (30) has had a hand in the most shots in the Championship this season, attempting 19 and setting up 11.
Peterborough v Sunderland
A potential for real entertainment here, and that's why we are going for a big-priced selection at London Road.
Sunderland have started the season as well as they would have hoped for. Five straight wins in all competitions sees them sitting in fourth, which may make it seem bizarre on the surface that we're backing them for defeat this week.
It may also seem odd, again on the surface, that it's against the team down in tenth. However, based on what we've seen from Peterborough in recent weeks, the evidence is there to say they have started to click following a slow start to the campaign.
Posh were beaten in their first two games, convincingly on opening day against Fleetwood too, but they've recovered and are now enjoying a three-game unbeaten run.
The last two games have been victories, with the win at MK Dons an eye-catching result given the solid start to the season that their opponents had enjoyed.
Darren Ferguson's men won 4-0 in that game, their last outing, and the statistics support the scoreline in showing it was a dominant performance.
Peterborough posted a huge ten shots on target, 20 in total, with a near 50/50 blend of efforts from inside and outside the box. They didn't even see the majority of possession but capitalised on some of the many opportunities that they had created for themselves.
That victory is a big indication that this team will kick on from here. They have quality throughout and a manager who has been promoted on more than one occasion from this club; they are well-placed to go on and repeat that again this season.
A win over Sunderland would be a huge statement even at this early stage of the campaign. Back a home victory and take the opportunity to throw in goals in the contest too.
Best bet: Peterborough to beat Sunderland and over 3.5 goals in the match at 7/1
Opta facts
- Peterborough are winless across their last seven meetings with Sunderland in all competitions (D2 L5) since beating them 5-2 in the second tier in November 1992 under Chris Turner.
- Sunderland have faced Peterborough nine times and have scored on each occasion – their best 100% scoring record against any opponent.
- Peterborough have scored 2+ goals in each of their last three League One outings, they haven’t done so in four successive games since December 2017 (five games).
- Sunderland have won each of their last three league games, they last won four in a row back in November 2018.
- Three of the five players to score four goals in League One this season play for either Peterborough (Ivan Toney & Mohamed Eisa) or Sunderland (Chris Maguire).
Northampton v Plymouth
I've been really impressed with Plymouth's start to the season. Not overly surprised given how we have them as Sky Bet League Two winners but it's still pleasing to see they've understood Ryan Lowe's philosophy this early.
This week takes them to Northampton, a side who endured a poor campaign so far on the whole. They have just one win from their opening five games.
Contrasting form makes Plymouth a good looking bet at a price of 7/4. Their nine goals scored, the joint-second highest in the division, also means that avenue is one to consider exploring.
However, there is real value in the best price of 5/1 available on Danny Mayor netting anytime. The wide man has one goal and one assist in his last two appearances.
What. A. Hit. 👏
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) August 21, 2019
A fantastic finish from Plymouth's Danny Mayor on Tuesday night 🚀#PAFC @Only1Argyle @ArgyleYap @TheArgyleTrust @Pasoti1 pic.twitter.com/4f9meFhs37
He grabbed his first goal of the campaign in their recent draw with Salford. An unbelievable effort saw him cut inside and find the top corner from distance.
Even Mayor won't deny that he did struggle in his first few games at the club. Now though, he has adapted to his new environment and is putting in performances that are showing why he was one of the best players in League Two last season.
He had a direct involvement in 24 goals last season. Given the fact he is working under the same manager in the same league, even if it is at another club, he should hit similar figures in 2019/20.
The price of a goal is generous in this game given his recent showings.
Best bet: Danny Mayor to score anytime at 5/1
Opta facts
- Northampton have lost six of their last eight league matches against Plymouth (W2), however they have won two of the last three (L1).
- Plymouth have won three of their last four trips to Northampton in the EFL (L1), however they did lose their most recent visit in April 2018 (0-2).
- Northampton have lost their last two home league matches – they haven’t lost three in a row since October 2017.
- Plymouth Argyle have lost six of their last nine away league matches (W1 D2 L6).
- Northampton manager Keith Curle has won his previous two home league games against Plymouth, doing so with Carlisle in April 2015 and August 2016.
- Plymouth’s Ryan Taylor netted a brace in their 3-0 win over Walsall – he had failed to score in his previous 37 league matches before that.
Odds correct at 1510 BST (29/08/19)
