Simon Crawford makes Championship leaders Leeds United his best bet in the Sky Bet EFL this weekend.
Saturday's TV game
Barnsley host Aston Villa live on Sky Sports in this weekend's final EFL match. Both have made indifferent starts to the season and have picked up just seven points apiece with the hosts having played six games and Villa seven. Both of Barnsley's wins have come at home, against Nottingham Forest (2-1) and Sunderland (3-0), and they also had a 3-2 midweek win at Oakwell over Derby which has earned them a trip to Wembley to face Spurs in the Carabao Cup. Villa have dawn their their last two matches 0-0, against Brentford and Middlesbrough, and a lack of goals has been their biggest problem so far with just seven scored - and four of those came in a 4-2 home win over Norwich. So we have two sides who are struggling for form and consistency. I think the draw has to be the way to go here with defences very much on top.
Best League Two bet
Exeter to beat Crewe (Saturday, 1500 BST)
It may be obvious to pick the league leaders at home, but you can't argue with form and, as they were at Barnet in midweek when they won 2-1, Exeter look too big to me with even money available. The Grecians are unbeaten in their seven games so far and have won their last five, with striker Reuben Reid their star performer with seven goals and an assist. After losing 2-1 to Blackpool in last season's pay-off final, there have been no signs of a hangover for Paul Tisdale's side and he will be hoping this season is the one. Crewe have made a solid start with three wins, two draws and two losses. The two defeats have come in their last three games though and they have only scored one goal on their travels so far. This looks a solid home bet for the form side of the division.
Best League One bet
Peterborough to beat Walsall (Saturday, 1500 BST)
Peterborough continue to be one of those sides who bang in goals for fun but are also prone to throw in the odd shocker. They have netted 15 goals in seven games so far, but last Satuday's 3-1 home defeat by Bradford ended their unbeaten start to the season. It looks like being another rollercoaster campaign but at the moment they are a team to get on side. Following two wins (both 4-1) and a draw in their three away games so far, they travel to a Walsall side who have lost their last two matches, including a 5-1 thumping at Rotherham in midweek. Of course, you expect a reaction when a side is beaten as heavily as that, but that could play into Posh's hands if Walsall become too expansive and striker Jack Marriott is just the man to capitalise with six goals and an assist already. Current form and too much firepower make odds-against Posh the pick of the day in Sky Bet League One.
Best Championship bet
Leeds to beat Millwall (Saturday, 1500 BST)
I make no apologies for once again siding with the league leaders, but why wouldn't you when they are odds against as they take on a side who have only won once in seven league games so far? Unbeaten Leeds have won five games and drawn two - scoring 14 goals and conceding just two in the process. Yet they are just marginal favourites against a Millwall side who have lost three, drawn three and won just one. Of course games between these sides are always feisty, played in front of hostile crowds, but new Leeds boss Thomas Christiansen has quickly made his mark and they go into this game on the back of four straight wins. The loss of striker Chris Wood to Burnley has barely been felt and Samuel Saiz (six goals, one assist) and Kemar Roofe (five goals, one assist) are forming a potent partnership up front. Leeds are simply too big to be ignored here.
Recommended bet
2.5pts Leeds to beat Millwall at 43/25
Posted at 2125 BST on 14/09/17.
