There's games in the Sky Bet Championship on Wednesday night. Tom Carnduff picks out his three best bets to consider.
Recommended bets
1pt Said Benrahma to score anytime in Brentford v Ipswich at 9/4
1pt Kamil Grosicki to score anytime in Hull v Wigan at 4/1
1pt Hull (-1 handicap) to beat Wigan at 13/4
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brentford v Ipswich
There's only a handful of games in the Sky Bet Championship on Wednesday night but this one should be a straightforward home victory.
Ipswich may have beaten Bolton last time out, but they have been fairly competitive since Paul Lambert took over and they were due a win. With Bolton's off-field issues, it's little surprise to see it come against them.
However, they will have to settle for another defeat against a Brentford side with a strong home record this season, despite Thomas Frank's men sitting in mid-table.
The Bees have the fourth-best record in front of their own supporters in the division, that's despite being without victory in their last two. They've comfortably dispatched of the teams at the bottom and Ipswich will join that list.
The fact that the hosts are 1/2 for victory here highlights how the value isn't in the outright market, but looking at scorers, it's difficult to say no to the 9/4 on Said Benrahma striking anytime.
The winger netted a goal and provided an assist in the 3-3 draw with Derby, taking his total to 26 (yes, 26) goals that he has had direct involvement in this season.
A goal against the Rams snapped a four-game run without one, but that will hopefully be the trigger point for more to come in the future. Prior to January, Benrahma had only been involved in six goals, that all changed when they played Stoke at home.
A goal in that game then saw direct involvement in 12 goals in the eight games after that. A point of interest is that he hadn't scored in the five games before that run.
It's clear that he is a player who thrives upon confidence judging on the patterns this season. His goals and assists come in groups, and his performance at the weekend will hopefully signal another run here.
The Asian Handicap has Brentford at -1 for this game, showing how the money is backing a comfortable home win. If there is a bet for the result on this game, it's worth considering the general price of 13/10 for Brentford -1 on the handicap.
Best bet: Said Benrahma to score anytime at 9/4
Opta facts
- Brentford have won their last two home league matches against Ipswich Town without conceding a goal.
- Ipswich have picked up just one win in their last eight league meetings with Brentford (W1 D4 L3), a 2-0 victory in August 2017.
- Said Benrahma has been involved in 16 goals in 15 league appearances during 2019 for Brentford (9 goals, 7 assists).
- Ipswich Town manager Paul Lambert has won all six of his matches against Brentford in all competitions.
- 73% of Brentford’s Championship points this season (37/51) have been won in home matches, the third highest percentage behind Rotherham (74%) and Wigan (83%).
- Ipswich are looking to win consecutive Championship matches for the first time since March 2018.
Hull v Wigan
Hull secured another home victory last time out, and I'm willing to post the same tip from that game here.
The Tigers beat Reading 3-1 in a game in front of their own supporters, which keeps their hopes of a play-off finish alive. Nigel Adkins' men are five points adrift of the top-six with 18 left to play for.
In that last game, I put up Grosicki to score anytime at 4/1 - which he did not once, but twice. Given that performance and a similar level opponent - I'm happy to back him again at the same price.
The Polish international has posted back-to-back braces - with goals against Ipswich and Reading in recent weeks. That means he has now been directly involved (goals and assists) in 20 goals for his side this season.
He's a player who is starting to hit form again. With Jarrod Bowen capturing the headlines, which is difficult to argue against given his efforts this season, Grosicki has made an impact on the opposite wing.
It's worth noting that all of his goals this season have come against sides at the bottom end of the division. When Hull are in games when they are largely on the front foot, Grosicki has shown that he is capable of striking.
Wigan may have gained a point away at Bristol City at the weekend, but their away form on the whole has been miserable. Just one win in 20 attempts gives them the worst road record in the entire EFL.
I'm surprised to see Hull as big as 5/4, although the general prices across the ball have them above even money for victory. City are unbeaten in their last eleven games at home, eight of which have been wins.
They are now in the top-seven of the Sky Bet Championship for points picked up at home. That's thanks largely to their positive form through the middle and into the second part of the season - it's clear that Athletic are also a side who rely on home comforts for points.
Seven points from a possible 60 just shows Wigan's issues with travelling this season. A home victory looks great value, and we can get odds of 13/4 on Hull winning by two or more goals - which they have done in six of their last eight wins at home.
Best bet: Kamil Grosicki to score anytime at 4/1
Best bet: Hull (-1 handicap) to beat Wigan at 13/4
Opta facts
- Hull haven’t hosted Wigan for a match since January 2011 in the FA Cup third round, losing 2-3 at the KC Stadium.
- Wigan have won five of their last seven games against Hull in all competitions (W5 D1 L1).
- Hull’s Nigel Adkins has faced Wigan seven times during his managerial league career without winning (P7 W0 D2 L5).
- Wigan are winless in 19 away matches in all competitions (W0 D4 L15) since a 3-0 win at Stoke in August.
- Since December 1st, Hull City have won 40 points in the Championship (W12 D4 L5) – only Sheffield United (43) and Norwich (47) have won more in that time.
- Nathan Byrne’s goal against Bristol City – timed at exactly 93 minutes – was the latest league goal scored by Wigan since Gavin Massey’s goal against Bristol Rovers in September 2017 (94:26).
Odds correct at 1530 BST (09/04/19)
