With some big-priced winning goalscorer tips already this season, Tom Carnduff is looking for more in Tuesday's Sky Bet EFL action.
Recommended bets
1pt Luke Ayling to score anytime in Preston v Leeds at 14/1
1pt Connor Roberts to score anytime in Swansea v Stoke at 16/1
1pt Aden Flint to score anytime in Bolton v Middlesbrough at 10/1
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Preston v Leeds
Leeds are starting to shake at a crucial point in the season, although we can expect that second place to rotate between the two Yorkshire clubs chasing it in the run-in.
Marcelo Bielsa's men are now a point behind Sheffield United with six games to play, and the fact that the Blades play on Wednesday gives them an opportunity to put the pressure back on their rivals with a game at Deepdale.
The South Yorkshire side won in their visit to Preston at the weekend, putting that extra bit of emphasis on Leeds to go and also get a result. You feel that whichever team goes four points clear at any point between now and May will be the one that goes up.
The problem with Leeds this season is that they are probably the division's most creative side. However, they are wasteful with the opportunities they get and that's why they are now in a scrap for automatic promotion.
One player who has seen performances pick up in recent weeks is Luke Ayling. The Leeds right-back has been a regular part of the defence since his return from injury.
Now, the best bet for me is to back him to score. Usually, backing a right-back to score anytime may seem like a daft suggestion, but this looks like the type of game where he can strike.
That's primarily down to two reasons - Preston's vulnerability to attacks down the wing and the issues they have had this season in defending set-pieces.
It's also partly due to the freedom that Bielsa allows his team in terms of positioning. Ayling will start on the right side of defence, but he will be sprinting down the wing looking to create or join the attack.
With crosses coming in from the left, we're not surprised to see Ayling aiming to connect with the ball at the back post. The fact that he has posted 30 shots this season, despite multiple months on the sideline with injury, shows how he is allowed to attack and try to find the net.
He also scored in Leeds' comeback victory over Millwall recently. He's demonstrated an ability to strike from open play, while he also lines up as a 'third centre back' on corners and free-kicks as he looks to direct a header towards goal.
I've only tipped him to score once previously this season, and while he didn't in that game, he did have an effort cleared off the line. That again shows the attacking threat he possesses.
The general price of 14/1 is worth a small stake in a game such as this. Bielsa's men know the importance of a result, but also taking the chances that they create at various points during a match. Regardless of starting position, every outfield player is capable of scoring in this Leeds team.
Best bet: Luke Ayling to score anytime at 14/1
Opta facts
- Preston have won one of their last eight league matches against Leeds (W1 D2 L5), winning 3-1 in this exact fixture last season.
- Leeds are looking to complete only their fourth league double over Preston, also doing so in 1924-25, 2004-05 and 2016-17.
- Preston haven’t lost three consecutive league matches since September 2018 (a run of four).
- Leeds United have only lost consecutive league matches once this campaign, losing to Hull City in December and Nottingham Forest on New Year’s Day.
- The last four league goals Preston have conceded have been scored between the 30th and 36th minutes (32nd, 30th, 36th, 33rd).
- Pablo Hernández has been involved in 23 league goals for Leeds United this season (12 goals, 11 assists) and has scored four of Leeds’ last five Championship goals.
Swansea v Stoke
Another game, another right-back but this time it's one who has found the net on multiple occasions this season.
Swansea's Connor Roberts has been one of the stand-out players in this Swans side. Despite playing in defence, the fact that he has experienced playing in more advanced roles shows that he has an eye for attack.
The 23-year-old has been allowed the freedom to drive forward and look for goal. That's reflected in the fact that he has two goals in his last three outings.
Roberts has also posted at least one shot in his last eight outings in the league. He has also had eight shots in his last four Championship games, a player with confidence who is more than playing his part.
It's likely that he'll start in that defensive position, but he'll still have opportunities on goal - particularly against a Stoke side who have been flat for large parts of the season.
They also take on a Potters side who do have a preference on attacking down the wings, as opposed to through the middle of the pitch. That could mean opportunities for a counter and to exploit the gaps left by the Stoke attack.
That will suit Roberts and I'd expect him to have at least one good opportunity to find the net. Given his recent showings, there is every chance that he will capitalise.
In terms of the result, it's worth taking the general price of 23/20 on a victory for Swansea in this one. Stoke may have won last time out, but they were unsuccessful in 12 away games prior to that.
They're also up against a Swansea side who have won their last six in the league, also scoring two against Pep Guardiola's record-breaking Manchester City. They're in a good position for another win here.
Best bet: Connor Roberts to score anytime at 16/1
Opta facts
- Swansea have won only one of their last seven league meetings with Stoke (W1 D1 L5), beating them 2-0 in April 2017.
- Stoke are looking to win four consecutive league matches against Swansea for the first time.
- Swansea haven’t won three consecutive league games since their final three matches of the 2016-17 Premier League season.
- Stoke City have taken the joint-most penalties in the Championship this season (8) and have missed the joint-most (6), with five different players failing to score from the spot (Afobe, Berahino, Clucas, Vokes and Bojan).
- Swansea City’s last five league goals have all come via different players (Dyer, James, Grimes, Routledge, Roberts).
- Stoke haven’t conceded a league goal for six matches and 568 minutes – a clean sheet here will equal their longest run of league matches without conceding (seven in November/December 2006).
Bolton v Middlesbrough
Two teams who are desperate for points meet at the University of Bolton Stadium where Bolton take on Middlesbrough.
Wanderers were beaten last time out by the only team below them in the table as Ipswich secured a 2-1 victory. Despite wins being hard to come by for the Tractor Boys, I'd back them to finish above a Bolton side who are heading back down to League One.
For Middlesbrough, they're in free fall at the moment after six consecutive losses has seen them drop out of the play-offs and into eighth. They are now four points outside of the top-six with the two teams above them holding games in-hand.
Despite that run, there's no excuses for Boro here and this is a game that should be a win if they are to seriously mount a promotion charge this season.
Even with no victory in their last three on the road, Middlesbrough's away form as a whole has been a positive this season and reflects that of a side who would finish in the play-off positions. That said, some of the teams flirting with relegation have seen a better record at home than Tony Pulis' men.
Despite scoring just once in the league this season, there is value in taking the 10/1 available on Aden Flint to score anytime in this game.
The centre-back possesses Middlesbrough's biggest attacking threat from their defence and that's reflected in the huge tally of 43 shots he has posted this season. It's no surprise to see all of those coming from inside the area.
Let's not tip toe around the subject, this Boro team is boring to watch. However, at this stage in the season and given recent form, they just need to win in any fashion possible.
Set-pieces will be key for the away side and they'll be hoping that Flint can strike. Having seen Bolton on multiple occasions this season, they do have a tendency to become static when defending dead-ball situations and that could cost them again on Tuesday night.
Even with their recent form, the Asian Handicap odds have Middlesbrough at -0.5 which shows how they are fancied for victory. At a price of 10/11, it's worth considering Middlesbrough for the win in the outright market.
Best bet: Aden Flint to score anytime at 10/1
Opta facts
- Bolton have lost their last seven league matches against Middlesbrough, in a run stretching back to August 2014.
- After going winless in 13 consecutive away league games at Bolton between 1994 and 2014, Middlesbrough have won on each of their three trips since.
- Bolton have only led for 430 minutes in Championship matches this season – 112 fewer than any other side.
- Middlesbrough manager Tony Pulis has never won away from home against Bolton (P7 W0 D2 L5) in a league match – this is his first game there since November 2011 when he was Stoke boss, a 0-5 defeat.
- Bolton have lost 11 league matches in 2019 – the joint-most of any Championship club along with QPR.
- Middlesbrough striker Britt Assombalonga has scored six goals in four league appearances against Bolton Wanderers.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (09/04/19)
