With a 14/1 winner last weekend, Tom Carnduff is searching for more value in League One and League Two by backing goalscorers.
Recommended bets
1pt Bright Enobakhare to score anytime in Coventry v Oxford at 3/1
1pt Bruno Andrade to score anytime in Crawley v Lincoln at 3/1
1pt Kieran Agard to score two or more goals in MK Dons v Yeovil at 11/2
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Coventry v Oxford
Promotion-chasing Coventry should wrap up three points against Oxford on Saturday.
The U's have seen just one victory in their last six league away games. That was their first win on the road this season, earning a total of 14 points from 19 games away.
That gives them the third-worst away record in the division, only Bradford and Shrewsbury have seen lower returns on their travels.
Coventry have hit form at the right time too. They've won three of their last four games and that has put them a point off the top-six. Given how Doncaster go to Luton, there's every chance they can move into the play-offs with a win.
For the hosts, they'll be hopeful that Bright Enobakhare continues his own good personal form. The on-loan Wolves forward has scored four goals in his last seven games since the switch in January, which includes the second and decisive goal in last week's win over Peterborough.
This is a Coventry side that does have goals in it, particularly at the Ricoh Arena. They've only failed to score in one of their last 14 home games in all competitions, while Oxford recently shipped four goals away at Accrington and five at Bury.
Betfair offer 3/1 on Enobakhare grabbing a goal anytime in this one which looks great value. Coventry are also available at 13/10 with most firms for victory too so are one to consider for the weekend accumulators.
However, it's could also be worth a small play on Coventry to win with over 2.5 goals in the game at a general price of 16/5 - if you're after something a bit bigger.
Best bet: Bright Enobakhare to score anytime at 3/1
Opta facts
- Coventry have won all five of their home matches against Oxford in all competitions, scoring a different number of goals each time (4-0, 5-2, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1).
- None of the nine league meetings between Coventry City and Oxford United have ended as a draw (six Coventry wins, three Oxford wins).
- Coventry have lost just one of their last eight league games (W5 D2), a 1-2 defeat against Burton Albion earlier this month.
- Karl Robinson has won just one of his eight league matches against Coventry, winning 2-1 with MK Dons in April 2014 (W1 D3 L4).
- There have been just 39 goals scored at Coventry’s Ricoh Arena in League One this season (21 for, 18 against) – fewer than ground in the competition.
Crawley v Lincoln
Lincoln are edging closer to promotion to Sky Bet League One. The Imps sit ten points clear of third place with 24 still left to play for.
They should grab another three points here against a Crawley side who have struggled for large parts of the current campaign. They're down in 18th but shouldn't have any relegation trouble.
Town were also hammered 6-1 by Crewe last time out. In total, they have won just one of their last eight fixtures, that gives puts them 21st in the form charts over the last ten games.
I saw Crawley play Grimsby a couple of weeks ago and while the home side won the game, one of the things that stood out to me was the fact that Grimsby could beat the opposition full-backs with relative ease.
I tipped Bruno Andrade to score on Monday night. He may not have found the net, but he was lively throughout the 90 minutes and had a few decent efforts on goal.
In a game such as this, Andrade can thrive and add to his already impressive tally this season. That was recognised as he won the Player of the Month award for February.
He's shown little issue in making the step-up following a summer switch from Boreham Wood, another player from non-league who has adapted to life in the EFL.
Andrade does have previous history with the likes of QPR and Stevenage, but his form for Boreham caught the eye and that's why Lincoln made a move.
It's a move that has worked out for both parties. He has nine goals and eight assists from the left-wing role, although he has been playing on the right in recent weeks.
He switched back to the left recently, which includes the game against Mansfield, and I'd back him to have opportunities to cut inside and find the net at the People's Pension Stadium.
At a general price of 3/1, the value is there in backing the Lincoln man to strike the net.
Best bet: Bruno Andrade to score anytime at 3/1
Opta facts
- Crawley Town have never previously lost to Lincoln City in three League Two meetings, winning the last two (D1).
- Lincoln City lost their only previous visit to Crawley in League Two 1-3 in February 2018.
- Crawley have won just one of their last eight League Two games (D4 L3). Failing to score in half of those games.
- Lincoln’s current 15-game unbeaten streak (W7 D8), the longest ongoing such run in League Two, is their best undefeated run of games in the Football League since December 1997 (16 unbeaten).
- Lewis Young has been directly involved in each of Crawley’s last three home goals in League Two (one goal, two assists). Indeed, seven of his eight goal involvements this season have been in home games (one goal, six assists).
MK Dons v Yeovil
One side hoping to join Lincoln in League One next season is MK Dons, and they should keep the pressure on the top-three with a win over struggling Yeovil.
The Glovers are a side who do not travel well. They've lost their last six away games, conceding three or more goals in three of those games.
It means they sit just three points above the drop zone. Results have been hard to come-by for Darren Way's side and they are at risk of losing their Football League status, despite playing in the Championship a few seasons ago.
Milton Keynes have, on the whole, been positive in their performances with plenty of wins in front of their own supporters. They are the third-best home side in the division, with Bury and Mansfield seeing a point more.
A feature of their game is that they score plenty of goals. Their 62 in the league is only bettered by Lincoln and Bury in England's fourth tier, that gives them a very healthy goal difference at this point.
That has been down to, in part, the prolific form of Kieran Agard up front. The 29-year-old has a total of 18 league goals this season, which includes a brace in their recent defeat to Morecambe.
There's value in the 11/2 with Bet365 for the forward to grab two or more goals again here. He returned to the starting line-up in their last game against Stevenage and should return his place here.
If worse comes to worse and he isn't involved from the start, as unlikely as that would be, it's worth remembering that both of those goals against Morecambe came after joining the game on the hour mark.
As expected, the home side are a short price for victory. Something bigger to consider for the accumulators is the 15/8 with Sky Bet on MK Dons scoring three or more goals.
They've hit that margin on multiple occasions last season, while Yeovil conceded three in their last away game against Port Vale.
Best bet: Kieran Agard to score two or more goals at 11/2
Opta facts
- MK Dons have only lost one home match against Yeovil in the Football League (P7 W4 D2), a 0-1 defeat in March 2012 in League One.
- Yeovil have avoided defeat in their last two meetings with MK Dons in all competitions, a 4-1 EFL Trophy win in December 2016 and a 1-1 draw in this season’s reverse League Two clash.
- No League Two side have won more home games this season than MK Dons (12 – also Bury, Crewe, Mansfield and Tranmere), while only Tranmere Rovers (11) have kept more clean sheets at home than MK Dons (10).
- Yeovil have failed to score in each of their last three away games in League two (L3), they last failed to score in four consecutive league games in April 2009 (A run of seven in the third tier – D1 L6).
- MK Dons’ Kieran Agard has scored 18 League Two goals this season; only Tranmere’s James Norwood has more (25).
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (21/03/19)
