Despite FA Cup action, there are still plenty of fixtures in the Sky Bet EFL. Tom Carnduff has three best bets to back.
Recommended bets
1pt Will Vaulks to score anytime in Rotherham v Sheffield Wednesday at 6/1
1pt Ipswich to beat Stoke at 33/10
1pt 30+ Fleetwood booking points in Fleetwood v Luton at 6/4
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Rotherham v Sheffield Wednesday
The early kick-off in the Sky Bet Championship is a South Yorkshire derby as Rotherham welcome Sheffield Wednesday to the New York Stadium.
Wednesday look safe from any trouble and Steve Bruce will be looking to finish the season with wins under his belt before a bit of a re-build in the summer, while the Millers are battling to avoid the drop.
Sky Bet have Rotherham as the 4/7 third-favourites for relegation, with Reading the main side that they will be looking to top over the final 14 games of the campaign.
They have been picking up points in recent weeks with three consecutive draws, although they will be hopeful that they can go that one step further here.
One player who has stood out throughout the season, in particular during those draws, is Will Vaulks. The midfielder is the star of Paul Warne's side and will be vital to their hopes of survival.
He has provided a real attacking threat too and is the key for creativity. That comes from open play and set-pieces, with Vaulks finding the net as a result of a direct free-kick at points this season.
The 25-year-old had a direct impact in their goal against Wigan, earning what could prove to be vital as May approaches. His cross was met by the head of Clark Robertson just before the half-hour mark.
The Millers are a side who are strong when it comes to set-pieces in their favour and they'll be particularly looking to utilise that in the remainder of their home games.
While it will provide Vaulks the opportunity to get the ball into the box, there will also be chances for a direct strike on goal. He is a player with the ability to find the net with chances such as that.
Not only are set-pieces crucial, but his impact from open play is noticeable. Despite often lining up in a more defensive role of midfield, he does have the freedom to play in advanced positions when possible.
In terms of the result itself, the recent form may be with the away side but we've seen in the past that this point in the season is often when sides at the bottom begin to pick up more victories as they fight for their Championship lives.
A Rotherham win is tempting at a price of 2/1, although both teams to score looks a good option to explore at a best price of 20/23 with Betfair in a game such as this.
Best bet: Will Vaulks to score anytime at 6/1
Opta facts
- Rotherham United have won none of their last 11 home league matches against Sheffield Wednesday (W0 D2 L9), since a 1-0 win in March 1976.
- Sheffield Wednesday have lost one of their last eight league games against Rotherham (W5 D2), a 0-1 defeat in March 2016.
- Rotherham’s last three home Championship defeats when scoring first have all been in Yorkshire derbies – against Huddersfield Town in February 2017, Hull in August 2018 and Leeds in January 2019.
- Sheffield Wednesday, who lost to Hull City in January, haven’t lost consecutive Yorkshire derbies in the league since October 2012, when they lost to Huddersfield Town and Hull City.
- Rotherham’s 2-2 draw with Hull saw the Millers come from two goals down to avoid defeat in a Championship match for the first time since March 2016, when they did so against Derby.
- Lucas Joao has scored three goals in three Championship starts against Rotherham for Sheffield Wednesday, including a brace in this season’s reverse fixture.
Ipswich v Stoke
Ipswich look a certainty for relegation, but it has to be said that performances have improved under Paul Lambert's leadership.
What they are lacking though is results. They were enduring a four-game losing run before earning a point against promotion-chasing Derby in midweek.
They were unlucky in defeat to Aston Villa while they did create chances against Norwich, but couldn't convert the opportunities they had in front of goal.
That point against Derby could prove to be a huge confidence booster though and they can capitalise on Stoke's struggles this season, especially with an unlikely relegation still a possibility with results failing to improve under Nathan Jones.
The Potters have won just two of their 16 games on the road this season, and while Ipswich's home form isn't much better, they have picked up points in three in their last five in front of their own supporters.
If Ipswich are to survive, they have to start winning now. There's a ten-point gap between themselves and Reading in 21st, with just 14 games left, they are quickly running out of time.
The stand-out statistic is that they have won just three league games this season. However, their performances in previous weeks have shown that they should be seeing a higher points return than they are.
The draw with Derby could well have been a positive response to Lambert's red card against Norwich. They witnessed their manager literally fighting for the cause, and while it may have been slammed by pundits and opposition immediately afterwards, the fact is that it could be a psychological boost in the long run.
The way Stoke are going, there is every chance that they will be dragged into a relegation scrap too. As is the case for Ipswich's survival, a ten-point gap can change so quickly in this division.
Best bet: Ipswich to beat Stoke at 33/10
Opta facts
- Ipswich are winless in seven league matches against Stoke (W0 D3 L4), since a 1-0 win in December 2004.
- This is Stoke’s first visit to Portman Road to face Ipswich in any competition since January 2008; a game which ended in a 1-1 draw in the Championship.
- Since Paul Lambert’s first league match in charge of Ipswich, no Championship team have taken fewer points than the Tractor Boys (10, level with Bolton).
- Nathan Jones has faced Ipswich Town once previously, losing 0-2 as Luton Town manager in the League Cup first round in the 2017-18 season.
- Ipswich have conceded 55 Championship goals this season – more than they conceded in three full seasons under Mick McCarthy (54 in 2013-14 and 2014-15, 51 in 2015-16 – excluding play-offs).
- Stoke haven’t failed to score in five consecutive league matches since February 2006.
Fleetwood v Luton
It could be the highlight of the Sky Bet League One weekend as Fleetwood host high-flying Luton.
The Hatters have stormed clear at the top of the table and look likely to secure promotion to the Championship, that's despite losing manager Nathan Jones to Stoke in January.
This week could prove to be a tricky game against a Fleetwood side who have struggled for consistency under Joey Barton.
There's a potential for goals in this one, but given Peter Bankes appointment as referee, the value is looking at booking points and more specifically, cards for the home side.
Fleetwood are up against Charlton for top spot when it comes to cards received in League One this season. Town have seen 67 yellows and six reds in their 32 games so far.
They've also seen booking points in games against teams at the top. They were shown a total of 45 points against Portsmouth alongside 30 in their last meeting with Luton.
The 6/4 on offer with Sky Bet for 30+ in this game looks good value based on their track record. It's set to be an open game and the strict referee in the middle should lead to cards.
Bankes has shown at least four cards on 18 separate occasions this season, and a game involving Fleetwood should see that tally rise to 19 on Saturday.
Luton look like the team who will win the title, but there is value in the double chance in Fleetwood's favour. The Cod Army look like they have recovered from their recent blip in results at home, while Luton have drawn three of their last five away.
At 4/5, it's worth a considering for Fleetwood/Draw given the home advantage and their mixed fortunes at various points throughout the campaign. When it is going well, they look like a team who can beat anyone and they'll hope the same applies here.
Best bet: 30+ Fleetwood booking points at 6/4
Opta facts
- This will be just the second league meeting between Fleetwood and Luton, with the Hatters winning the only previous clash in December 2018 (2-0).
- Fleetwood conceded with both of their shots on target faced in this season’s reverse fixture against Luton (0-2), while failing to score with three of their own.
- Fleetwood have won three of their last four league outings (L1), as many as they had won in their previous 12 such games.
- Since losing to Barnsley in October, Luton have dropped just eight points out of a possible 57 available (W15 D4).
- Luton’s James Collins has scored five goals in his last three league games; he has now equalled his league total from 2017-18 (19 goals).
Odds correct at 1605 GMT (14/02/19)
