Following a 16/1 winning tip in the Europa League on Thursday, Tom Carnduff has found three best goalscorer bets to back in the Sky Bet Championship.
Recommended bets
1pt Conor Hourihane to score anytime in Aston Villa v Stoke at 4/1
1pt Adam Forshaw to score anytime in Bolton v Leeds at 8/1
1pt Pawel Wszolek to score anytime in QPR v Middlesbrough at 8/1
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Stoke
Sky Bet Championship, Villa Park, 1500 GMT
A contest between two sides in good form in recent weeks, Aston Villa meet Stoke with both aiming to close the gap on the play-offs.
One of the main headlines from this game is the fact that Jack Grealish will be missing for the hosts. The division's most-fouled player is suffering from a shin injury.
That should see Glenn Whelan come into the side and take up a more holding midfield position, which may allow Conor Hourihane to play Grealish's more advanced role.
Hourihane has been a star in the middle of the park for Villa, and his attacking threat has been consistent across the course of the season.
His 39 shots on goal is the third-highest in this Villa side. The majority of his goals so far have come from outside the area, although the value is in backing him to hit the net anytime in this one.
He has already shown that he is a key attacking element in a deeper role, finding plenty of opportunities to go for goal in an attempt to try and get himself on the scoresheet.
Pushing Hourihane further up the field should see those number of opportunities increase. At a best price of 4/1, even at the general price of 3s, the best avenue to explore in this one is backing him to score.
Best bet: Conor Hourihane to score anytime at 4/1
Opta facts
- Aston Villa have lost each of their last three league games against Stoke, all in the Premier League between February 2015 and February 2016.
- Stoke have lost none of their last six away league games against Aston Villa (W3 D3).
- Since losing successive games at the end of October, Aston Villa have been unbeaten in their last six league games (W4 D2) – their best run since winning seven in a row in February.
- Stoke have drawn six of their 10 away games in the Championship this season (W2 L2); no team have recorded more stalemates on the road (level with Nottingham Forest).
- Jack Grealish has created 47 chances for his Aston Villa teammates so far this season – only Sheffield United’s Oliver Norwood has created more (52).
- Sam Clucas has been directly involved in four goals in his last three Championship appearances for Stoke (1 goals, 3 assists).
Bolton v Leeds
Sky Bet Championship, University of Bolton Stadium, 1500 GMT
Once again, Bolton have been hitting the headlines for off-field issues regarding player payments.
To make things worse, their manager Phil Parkinson is heavily-linked with a move to Reading who are on the lookout for a new boss following Paul Clement's sacking.
The club also banned the local newspaper's club reporter on Friday, highlighting how the atmosphere is anything but positive at the University of Bolton Stadium.
They take on high-flying Leeds this week and it'll be a big ask for them to pick up anything against Marcelo Bielsa's men.
Leeds though have been hit with a big bit of news this week as Samuel Saiz is on the verge of a return to Spain. The attacking midfielder is unsettled in England and is set to join Getafe in January.
It's difficult to see Saiz being involved whatsoever here, which should signal Adam Forshaw playing his advanced midfield role.
Forshaw is yet to score this season, but he has only started four games in the advanced midfield position. Near half of his appearances have come off the bench, while he has lined-up alongside Klich in a more holding midfield role in their last-four.
Given Bolton's issues and Leeds' favouritism here, the value is there in the 8/1 best price available on Forshaw to score anytime.
Best bet: Adam Forshaw to score anytime at 8/1
Opta facts
- Bolton have lost each of their last five matches against Leeds in all competitions despite finding the net at least once in each game.
- Leeds have lost just one of their last 14 away matches against Bolton (W9 D4), a 1-4 defeat in the Premier League in May 2004.
- Bolton have only picked up just three points from their last 11 league games (D3 L8), scoring five goals and conceding 17.
- Leeds have had a different manager in each of their last 10 away league visits to Bolton since 1995 - Wilkinson, Graham, O'Leary, Venables, Gray, Warnock, McDermott, Redfearn, Evans and Christiansen.
- Leeds have won each of their last four Championship matches; they last won five league games in a row in December 2009 when in the third tier.
- No Championship side has made more changes to their starting line-up this season than Bolton (59, level with Sheffield Wednesday), whilst only Birmingham City (16) have made fewer changes than Leeds (23).
QPR v Middlesbrough
Sky Bet Championship, Loftus Road, 1500 GMT
Staying on the goalscorer theme, we had success with the Pawel Wszolek tip in their loss to Hull a couple of weeks ago and I'd happily back him to score again here at huge odds of 8/1.
The QPR winger has four goals on his tally so far this season alongside a further assist. He was left out of the starting XI at the beginning of the season, but has cemented his position with starts in their last ten league games.
All four goals have come at home and he could capitalise against a Middlesbrough side who have conceded in three of their last four away games.
Tony Pulis' men are without a win in three and would have expected to wrap up maximum points against Blackburn and Preston, although they had to settle for draws on both occasions.
The cracks may be starting to appear in a Boro side who do have promotion aspirations. They now sit in sixth in the table, six points adrift of the automatic positions.
The R's have scored ten goals in their last five home games, five of which have come in their last two. They clearly have no issues with finding the net in front of their own supporters, which does provide value in another Wszolek goal on Saturday.
Best bet: Pawel Wszolek to score anytime at 8/1
Opta facts
- QPR have lost their last four league games against Middlesbrough, conceding three goals in each of the last three defeats.
- Only one of the last 15 league matches between QPR and Middlesbrough has ended as a draw – a 1-1 stalemate in December 1995.
- Steve McClaren is set to manage against former side Middlesbrough for a fifth time in the Championship – he’s lost each of his last three, all with Derby County.
- Tony Pulis and Steve McClaren last faced off in a league game in February 2016 in the Premier League, a 1-0 win for McClaren’s Newcastle United against West Brom.
- Hull City ended QPR’s three-game winning streak at Loftus Road in the league, beating them 3-2 last time out – the Hoops haven’t lost two in a row at home since August.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last six away league games (W3 D3).
Odds correct as of 1605 GMT on 14/12/18
