The Championship returns following an international break and there's plenty of value on offer in the Sky Bet EFL this weekend.
Recommended bets
2pts 40+ Nottingham Forest booking points at 4/1
2pts Each team to have 30+ booking points in Sheffield Wednesday v Derby at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Bristol City
Sky Bet Championship, Elland Road, 1500 GMT
Leeds come into this one without a senior goalkeeper and one fit senior centre-back, yet I still (maybe bizarrely) fancy them for victory.
Jamal Blackman's season-long loan spell has come to an end early following a serious leg injury and Bailey Peacock-Farrell also picked up an injury in training, meaning that the responsibility could fall on one of Will Huffer or Kamil Miazek.
Both are yet to play a senior game for the club, but Leeds have reportedly applied to the EFL to allow them to sign an emergency goalkeeper, as of Thursday afternoon though, they are yet to bring anyone in.
Pontus Jansson is also out of this one, according to Marcelo Bielsa, and that could see Kalvin Phillips drop in as a centre-back or youngster Aapo Halme another player given a debut.
With that defensive crisis, this one looks a great game to add to the Both Teams to Score accumulators. The Whites have scored in all-but-one home league game this season and may need to really embrace Marcelo Bielsa's attacking style if they are to emerge victorious.
I did find it interested that Bielsa did admit he would have started Blackman in this game. He told the Yorkshire Evening Post that it was important for it to be public so that Blackman knew he had reached the level and also so that Peacock-Farrell knew that he would have been losing his place.
The decision is yet to be made between Huffer and Miazek if it came to it, but I would expect Miazek to start given how highly he is rated at the club.
Bristol City will be eyeing this up as a real opportunity to hit the net and try and secure at least a point. Given the circumstances surrounding the game though, goals is the avenue to explore here.
Leeds may well get in an experienced goalkeeper by the time this game comes around, but even then we have seen that this Leeds team is one with goals in it. They know that they are most likely going to have to attack here to gain a big enough lead to protect.
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 21/10
Opta facts
- Leeds have lost just two of their 24 league games against Bristol City in the second tier (W17 D5), with those two defeats separated by over 90 years (0-1 in both 1921 and 2016).
- Bristol City last beat Leeds at Elland Road in league competition in November 1979, going winless in their six such trips since (D1 L5).
- Leeds have suffered just one defeat in their last 12 home games in the Championship (W7 D4), with that coming against Birmingham in September (1-2).
- Bristol City have lost each of their last three games in the Championship – they haven’t lost four in a row since January 2017 (a run of eight consecutive defeats).
- Mateusz Klich has been directly involved in more goals than any other Leeds player in the Championship this term (10 – five goals and five assists), with each of those 10 goals coming from open play.
- Bristol City striker Andreas Weimann has scored four of his five goals in the Championship this season away from home. Indeed, only three players have netted more away goals in the competition this term – Neal Maupay (6), Lewis Grabban and Frazier Campbell (both five).
Hull v Nottingham Forest
Sky Bet Championship, KCOM Stadium, 1500 GMT
Hull have experienced a bit of a revival in recent weeks and victory here should take them out of the relegation zone.
They welcome Nottingham Forest who have a decent enough away record this season. They may have won just two games on the road, but five draws and one loss gives them the seventh best record in the division.
Both teams have eight points in their last five games with an almost identical run of results, and a draw seems the most appealing final outcome here at a general price of 23/10.
Forest's poor disciplinary record sets them apart from the rest of the league. Their 44 yellows and one red is seven clear of Bolton in second, while their 26 cautions on the road also gives them the worst away record.
Graham Scott has demonstrated how he can be strict when required, although hasn't officiated too many games this season. He has overseen just seven across four competitions, two of which came in the Championship.
He did show six yellow cards in Swansea's 1-0 win over Bolton last time out, with three of those being for the away team. I'd be willing to gamble on more Forest bookings here with their showings this season.
Two of their last three away games have seen them accumulate 40 or more booking points, while they also picked up 30 in their home victory over Sheffield United.
I'd imagine this could actually be quite a frustrating game for Forest given the Tigers' upturn in form in recent weeks. They have already shown that they can pick up cards in games where they are frustrated, the seven yellows in their away defeat to Brentford being a good example.
Sporting Life will also have footage from both Nigel Adkins and Aitor Karanka so may sure you check sportinglife.com/football for all the reaction after the game.
Best bet: 40+ Nottingham Forest booking points at 4/1
Opta facts
- Hull have lost just two of their last 10 league games against Nottingham Forest (W6 D2), although the most recent of those defeats came in this fixture last season (2-3 in October 2017).
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten on their last three league trips to the KCOM Stadium (W2 D1), last suffering defeat there back in April 2012 (1-2).
- Following their 1-0 win over West Brom at the start of the month, Hull are looking to record back-to-back league wins at the KCOM Stadium for the first time since April 2017 (a run of four in the Premier League).
- Nottingham Forest have only lost one of their last 11 games in the Championship (W5 D5), with their only defeat in this run coming against current league leaders Norwich (1-2 in October).
- Fraizer Campbell is Hull’s top scorer in the Championship this season with six goals, however only one of those has been netted at the KCOM Stadium (five away from home).
- Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon has kept seven clean sheets in the Championship this season – only Darren Randolph has more (11 for Middlesbrough).
Sheffield Wednesday v Derby
Sky Bet Championship, Hillsborough, 1500 GMT
Another Championship game here as we celebrate the return of England's second-tier following the international break.
Like the game above, bookings are the avenue to explore with the referee appointment and also the disciplinary records of the two sides involved.
Both sides sit in the top five of the division when it comes to cards shown, with Derby's 33 yellows and one red slightly ahead of Wednesday who have one less caution.
Jeremy Simpson is only beaten by Peter Bankes when it comes to cards shown in the Championship this season, meaning that everything points towards cards at Hillsborough on Saturday.
30+ booking points for each team at 7/1 may look a tad ambitious, but I like the value of it given recent track record of the two sides.
The Owls have seen at least three yellows in their last two games, while their win over Bristol City last month saw a total of five. They have picked up at least a card in every home game this season, with multiple occasions bringing two or more.
Derby also had 30 booking points in their last game, a 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa, and like their opponents have seen multiple cards frequently in their league games this season.
The referee could be the deciding factor here. A total of 19 yellow cards have been shown in his last three league games, with 14 yellows and two reds in the two games before that.
It's also worth noting that both sides picked up three yellows in their meeting at Hillsborough last season, while Derby were just one card short of the same criteria being hit at Pride Park.
Best bet: Each team to have 30+ booking points at 7/1
Opta facts
- Sheffield Wednesday have won just two of their last 18 league games against Derby (D6 L10), however those two victories have come in the most recent three meetings (2-1 in April 2017 and 2-0 in February 2018).
- Derby are winless in their last four league trips to Hillsborough to face Sheffield Wednesday (D2 L2), losing each of the last two in this run.
- Sheffield Wednesday are looking for their first home win in the Championship since August (2-1 v Ipswich), having drawn three and lost two of their last five there. Only Ipswich (0) have won fewer home games than the Owls (2) in the competition in 2018-19.
- Derby are on the Championship’s longest current run of games without keeping a clean sheet (9), while they’ve managed just three in 17 games in the competition this season.
- Sheffield Wednesday have scored the most goals from outside the box of any team in the Championship this season (9), while they also have the highest percentage of their goals from outside the box (43%).
- Derby striker Jack Marriott has been directly involved in seven goals in his last seven appearances in all competitions (five goals and two assists).
Walsall v Sunderland
Sky Bet League One, Banks' Stadium, 1500 GMT
Walsall started the campaign with a number of great results to put them at the top-end of the division, but they've been unable to keep the momentum going and now find themselves sat in 11th.
A positive is that they are just two points off the play-offs, although Sunderland will fancy their chances of victory given their 12-game unbeaten run in all competitions.
Nine of those games have ended in a win, moving them up to second in the table. They did miss the opportunity to move top last week though as they were held by Wycombe at home.
The value here is in the corners market with both teams inside the top-five for corners per game in League One. Walsall have been averaging around 12 per game, while Sunderland are around the 11 mark.
The hosts also have the highest average of corners in the first-half with seven. Sunderland's five in the first 45 minutes also puts them high in those standings here too.
First-half corners may also show a decent price, but the 7/5 on offer with Unibet for over 11.5 corners across the entire game here looks generous given showings already this season.
Best bet: Over 11.5 corners at 7/5
Opta facts
- This is the first league meeting between Walsall and Sunderland since March 2004, when the Black Cats won 3-1 in a second-tier match.
- Sunderland have won their last four matches against Walsall in all competitions by an aggregate score of 12-3.
- Walsall have won just one of their last seven home league games (D2 L4), beating Wycombe 3-2 in October.
- Sunderland have won each of their last four away league games – they haven’t won five such games on the bounce since May 1988.
- The Black Cats have won 12 points from losing positions in League One this season - more than any other side.
Carlisle v Forest Green
Sky Bet League Two, Brunton Park, 1500 GMT
An away selection for a game between two sides next to each other in the table, but Forest Green provide a great price given contrasting form.
In terms of recent results, both have had similar fortunes but Carlisle's struggles in front of their own supporters may damage their play-off hopes in the long run.
On the road, they're confident of beating anyway with the third best record in the league, but at home, just ten points in nine games gives puts them in 17th in the home standings.
The bad news for John Sheridan's men is that Forest Green have also experienced success away, sitting one spot below them in that away table.
At odds-against 13/8, the value is there in backing an away victory. Whether that be as part of a single or to boost the odds of your Saturday accumulator.
It's also interesting that Forest Green sit second in the division for over 2.5 goals in their away games. Six of the nine have had three or more, with both teams scoring in every game.
Combining the two outcomes gives a best price of 10/3 with Betfair, which looks very tempting given track record.
A mention for the Sporting Life Accumulator too. Forest Green to beat Carlisle is one four selections enhanced to 16/1 with the EFL title sponsors Sky Bet.
Best bet: Forest Green to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 10/3
Opta facts
- This will be just the third meeting between Carlisle United and Forest Green Rovers in the Football League, with Carlisle winning both home and away last season by a 1-0 scoreline.
- Carlisle ended a run of five straight home defeats without a goal beating Newport 3-2 in their last home league game – the Cumbrians will be looking to win back to back league games on home soil for only the second time this season.
- Forest Green Rovers have lost back to back league games for the first time this season – they last lost three on the bounce back in March.
- Forest Green Rovers have lost 15 points from winning positions in League Two this season – only Notts County (16) have lost more.
- Carlisle have just eight different goal scorers in League Two so far this season (excluding own goals) – only Tranmere (7) have had fewer.
Odds correct as of 0840 GMT on 23/11/18
