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Sky Bet Championship: Promotion, Play-off, Relegation odds and probabilities
The Sky Bet Championship is once again fascinating. The races for promotion, play-offs and to avoid the drop are as intense as ever, and Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's model to assess each team's chances.
Fulham are the runaway leaders, and in truth, have been a class above the rest in this season's Championship. They are currently eight points clear of second placed Bournemouth and 14 clear of third placed Luton with a game in hand.
The only need 11 points from nine games to confirm promotion, and the Infogol model gives them a 99.9% chance of doing so and gaining automatic promotion, while Marco Silva's side have a 95% chance of securing the title.
It is looking increasingly likely that the Cherries will follow the Cottagers back up to the Premier League, with Scott Parker's side opening up a six point gap to third while also holding two games in hand.
The Infogol model gives Bournemouth a 92% chance of finishing in the top two, and while that percentage is high, there remains a slither hope for the chasing pack due to the Cherries' run-in.
In their remaining 10 league games, Parker's men must face eight teams in the top half of the table - all of whom are vying for promotion.
Who will finish in the Championship play-off places?
So it looks highly likely, though not certain, that Fulham and Bournemouth will occupy the top two spots, meaning in theory we have 10 teams scrapping for four play-off spots - with those 10 sides separated by just nine points.
Championship play-off battle
- 3rd Luton | GP: 38 | Pts: 63 | GD: +14
- 4th Huddersfield | GP: 39 | Pts: 63 | GD: +8
- 5th Sheff Utd | GP: 38 | Pts: 61 | GD: +12
- 6th Blackburn | GP: 39 | Pts: 61 | GD: +10
- 7th Middlesbrough | GP: 37 | Pts: 59 | GD: +8
- 8th QPR | GP: 38 | Pts: 59 | GD: +6
- 9th Nott'm Forest | GP: 36 | Pts: 58 | GD: +18
- 10th Millwall | GP: 38 | Pts: 57 | GD: +3
- 11th Coventry | GP: 38 | Pts: 55 | GD: +3
- 12th West Brom | GP: 38 | Pts: 54 | GD: +6
In terms of xG performance over the course of the season, based on expected points (xP) per game, Middlesbrough, Sheffield United, West Brom and Luton have been the best four teams out of the 10 contenders.
Seventh-placed Boro have at least one game in hand over the teams above them in the table, Sheffield United currently occupy fifth and Luton third, but West Brom have a mighty task on their hands if they are to deliver on their underlying performance data and finish in the top six.
Luton are the current favourites to secure a top-six berth, given an 85% chance, with Middlesbrough (73%) and Sheffield United (63%) expected to follow them into the play-offs.
None of that is surprising, as I wrote back in February that Luton were ones to watch in the top six race due to their excellent underlying process and both Middlesbrough and Sheffield United were trending in extremely positive directions after their managerial changes.
In that same piece I called out Nottingham Forest - another team who changed manager this season - as being in the mix too and potentially dangerous, with their underlying numbers excellent since Steve Cooper took over.
The Tricky Trees currently sit ninth but have at least two games in hand on teams currently in the top six (three over Huddersfield and Blackburn) while being just three points behind.
It is in their hands, and the Infogol model makes Forest the fourth most likely team to finish the campaign in the top six, with a 55% chance.
In the same article where I highlighted and explained why Luton, Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough and Forest were serious contenders, I also made the case for teams in danger of falling away - those in a false position.
Blackburn, QPR and Huddersfield were the teams on that list, and it's fair to say they have struggled of late.
All three were posting mid-table underlying numbers, thus making their results unsustainable unless things improved, which they haven't.
Sky Bet Championship Top 6 Finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- 2/7 - Sheff Utd
- 4/9 - Luton
- 1/2 - Middlesbrough
- 8/15 - Nott'm Forest
- 8/11 - Huddersfield
- 6/4 - Blackburn
- 4/1 - Millwall
- 5/1 - West Brom
- 11/2 - QPR
- 16/1 - Coventry
Odds correct at 1200 (30/03/22)
Rovers have gone from second to sixth, QPR have slipped from fourth to eighth, while Huddersfield have seen their advantage to seventh place cut to four points.
QPR and Huddersfield are still posting a negative xG process (-0.07 and -0.08 xGD per game respectively), and that is simply not good enough to cement them in the top six.
At least Blackburn are posting a positive process (+0.12) which means they create more and better chances on average than their opponents on a game-to-game basis.
Due to having a few extra points on the board than Blackburn and QPR, the Terriers are given a 42% chance of finishing in the top six, with Blackburn at 37% and QPR now a serious outsider (15%).
Millwall (13%) fall into the same category as the trio above, posting poor underlying numbers, while Coventry (5%) and West Brom (10%) - 3rd and 7th based on xP per game - have been unfortunate results and have left themselves a bit too much to do this season.
So, based on Infogol's simulations, the most likely final top six in the Championship this season is:
- Fulham
- Bournemouth
- Luton
- Middlesbrough
- Sheffield United
- Nottingham Forest
Who will be relegated from the Championship?
Relegation looks seemingly more clear-cut than promotion in the Championship, with the three teams in the bottom three currently five points adrift.
Derby are bottom on 25 points, with their 21 point deduction looking too big of a hurdle to overcome. They are eight points from safety having played a game more than fourth-bottom Reading.
Peterborough are just a point better off than the Rams, with Barnsley a further two clear, with the Tykes just five points from safety with eight games to play.
Championship relegation picture
- 21st Reading | GP: 38 | Pts: 33 | GD: -29
- 22nd Barnsley | GP: 38 | Pts: 28 | GD: -26
- 23rd Peterborough | GP: 38 | Pts: 26 | GD: -44
- 24th Derby | GP: 39 | Pts: 25 | GD: -7
Ultimately, the bottom four are all deserving of being there based on underlying data. We don't have any team in the relegation scrap who are unfortunate to be so, and the five point buffer Reading currently have may prove enough for them to scrape safety.
The Royals have also incurred a points deduction, theirs only six, but it means there is something of a survival fight.
Derby and Peterborough are unsurprisingly given a 98% chance of being relegated this season, with points difference and underlying process meaning it's incredibly unlikely they could pull themselves out of the mire.
Barnsley are currently at 84% to drop into Sky Bet League One, but have given themselves hope after collecting 14 points from their last nine league games, though their xG process in that time has remained poor (0.91 xGF, 1.52 xGA per game).
The biggest of all games regarding the Championship relegation battle takes place this Saturday, with Barnsley hosting Reading. The result of that game could see these percentages shift drastically one way or the other.
Barnsley also get to play Peterborough at Oakwell, and do play teams who may have 'checked out' for the season, meaning it is absolutely possible they could pull off the great escape.
Sky Bet Championship Relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/50 - Derby, Peterborough
- 1/4 - Barnsley
- 6/4 - Reading
Odds correct at 1200 (30/03/22)
As for Reading, they have a 20% chance of survival, and with their run in looking no more favourable than Barnsley's this weekend's clash will be crucial.
Currently the Infogol model has Reading as the most likely victors of that head-to-head (37%), avoiding defeat 64% of the time.
A fascinating Championship season still has plenty of twists and turns to come, that is for sure.
