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Sky Bet Championship play-offs tips: Best bets, predictions and outright preview
The battle for the Premier League continues and Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets for the Sky Bet Championship play-offs.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts Luton to be promoted at 11/4 (General)
2pts Coventry to reach the final at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Championship play-offs winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Middlesbrough - 9/5
- Luton - 9/4
- Sunderland - 7/2
- Coventry - 4/1
Odds correct at 0955 BST (10/05/23)
When Andy Williams' dulcet tones delivered the famous song "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year", we can safely assume he was describing the month of May in the distant future.
The fifth month of the year is as good as the 12th for football fans, and the Sky Bet EFL play-offs provide the drama-filled couple of weeks that we so desperately crave when tuning into a game.
From Clive Mendonca in 1998 to Joe Bryan in 2020, the play-offs format and indeed the final have delivered memorable moments that you can't repeat elsewhere. Given the teams involved this year, we shouldn't expect anything to change.
Sky Bet Championship play-offs schedule
Saturday May 13: Sunderland v Luton (17:30 BST)
Sunday May 14: Coventry v Middlesbrough (12:00 BST)
Tuesday May 16: Luton v Sunderland (20:00 BST)
Wednesday May 17: Middlesbrough v Coventry (20:00 BST)
Saturday May 27: Play-off final (16:45 BST)
As ever, the storylines attached to this are fascinating.
Middlesbrough's upturn in form under Michael Carrick has cooled off, with Sunderland looking to make it back-to-back promotions after success in League One. They're alongside Coventry in chasing a Premier League return, while Luton are aiming to cap off their own memorable season by going up.
Indeed, it's the latter of those mentioned above that provides the most interest, and the 11/4 available on LUTON TO BE PROMOTED is well worth taking.
The turnaround in their form under Rob Edwards has been remarkable. Inheriting a side sat 13th in the table, he guided them to third, a position that was secured before final day.
In fact, since Edwards took charge, only Burnley (60) and Sheffield United (53) gained more points than Luton (50) - as we know, those two went up automatically.
Simply for nothing more than illustrative purposes, a repeat of Luton's performances under Edwards across a 46-game season would deliver 92 points. The Blades got 91 as they finished runners-up.
It's a jump up from a rate that would have gained 63 points, a sitting alongside Preston and Watford, ironically the club Edwards was sacked from earlier in the season, in a battle for top-half spot.
They come into the play-offs on the back of a 14-game unbeaten run in the league. That's seen 18 goals scored from 21.4 xG, while just seven conceded from 12.5 xGA.
Putting focus on the other half of the bracket, and it's worth a gamble on COVENTRY TO MAKE THE FINAL given what we've seen from Middlesbrough in recent weeks.
Carrick has done an unbelievable job of turning around Boro's fortunes, but they've let focus slip in the final part of the season. Perhaps this was down to automatically promotion escaping them and a play-off finish looking certain for a while.
Even then, nine teams have picked up more points than Middlesbrough in the last ten games. Four of those ten ended in defeat - they only managed back-to-back wins once across that period.
Coventry gained 17 points to Middlesbrough's 12 across the final ten, but their record only saw one defeat. That was a surprise 4-0 hammering by Stoke, but they followed that up with a seven-game unbeaten run.
They picked up points in away games against Blackburn and Middlesbrough, while also getting a 0-0 at Swansea, a side who finished the campaign in terrific form.
There is an element of 'resetting' when it comes to the play-offs, but the Sky Blues should have a good amount of confidence about them. They sat sixth in the home table and seventh away - there is no major preference which is a benefit in this situation.
There's also an interesting stat to consider and it concerns the graph at the top of this article. Coventry have gained points in 73.9% of games this season, that puts them second to Luton in this metric.
Over the past five seasons, the finalists in four of them have been the top two teams for the above percentage. It's not about winning, it's more about avoiding defeat. David Wagner's Huddersfield were promoted without scoring themselves in 2017 - their only strike being an own goal.
In what looks a typically open competition this year, backing LUTON to go up with COVENTRY making an appearance at Wembley are the bets that provide the most appeal.
Sky Bet Championship play-offs best bets
- 2pts Luton to be promoted at 11/4 (General)
- 2pts Coventry to reach the final at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Odds correct at 0955 BST (10/05/23)
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