The Sky Bet Championship is so often an unpredictable league, but Jake Osgathorpe is our man in charge of attempting to decipher this season's competition, and provide some value betting tips.
Football betting tips: Championship outright preview
4pts Fulham to be promoted at 15/8 (General)
3.5pts West Brom to be promoted at 11/4 (bet365)
5pts Bournemouth to finish in top six at 6/4 (bet365)
2.5pts Huddersfield to be relegated at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Bristol City to be relegated at 9/2 (Boylesports)
Ah the Championship. The wonderful league that provides plenty of drama and surprises. Or does it?
Last season saw two of the three relegated teams from the Premier League bounce straight back up to the top flight, while two of the three teams promoted from League One made a swift return.
It was a strange 2020/21 mind, one where no team could really splash cash, meaning no one could prise away the relegated teams best assets and the promoted teams couldn’t afford to strengthen their squads.
Not to mention there were no fans in stadiums. Thankfully, supporters return this season, and while the money isn’t flowing as it once was, teams are recruiting more and rebuilding squads. We should have a much more competitive league season this time around – at the bottom end at least.
Who will win the Championship?
Unsurprisingly, the three relegated teams (Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United) head the betting in the winner market, but all three have new managers at the helm.
Fulham are to be led by Marco Silva this season, the Baggies by Valérien Ismaël and the Blades by Slaviša Jokanović. All boast impressive squads at this level and are rightly at the head of the betting.
Sky Bet Championship 21/22 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/2 - Fulham
- 6/1 - West Brom
- 7/1 - Sheffield United
- 9/1 - Bournemouth
- 16/1 - Cardiff, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest, Swansea
- 18/1 - Barnsley
- 20/1 - Reading, Stoke
Sky Bet are paying 4 places instead of 3 (1/5 odds) on all each-way bets on Sky Bet EFL league winners
Odds correct as of 20:00 (01/08/21)
Bournemouth look to be a serious contender again this season and also have a new manager in Scott Parker, while fellow play-off losers Swansea and Barnsley will also start the new season with a fresh face in the dugout.
The likes of Cardiff, Nottingham Forest, Middlesbrough and Stoke are all around the 16/1 mark to win the title, but none of them appeal. In fact, the ‘to win the league’ market is getting swerved in this preview.
Even with Sky Bet paying four places each-way, I won’t be backing teams I fancy to do well to win the league, and instead I will be playing them to be promoted.
Who will be promoted to the Premier League?
FULHAM and WEST BROM are two teams fancied to do well this season by the bookmakers, by the Infogol model, and by me.
Yes, they have new managers at the helm, but their squads are sensational at this level.
Let’s start with the Cottagers. Silva is a solid appointment after Parker left to join Bournemouth. While he may be remembered as a ‘failure’ at Everton, it is worth noting that, based on expected goals (xG), he was extremely unlucky with results in his second season.
He was fired after 15 games of the 19/20 campaign, with the Toffees third bottom of the table, but they ranked seventh based on expected points (xP) – things could have been so different for the Portuguese manager if they had performed to an expected level, or of he was given more time.
So, I am confident he will be able to do a good job with this talented crop of players, most of whom were part of the team that earned promotion from the Championship in 19/20, including Aleksandar Mitrović, who scored 26 goals that term.
Their starting XI is simply frightening at this level, and they should make a swift return to the top flight, with the Infogol model making them favourites to do so.
While I think it is likely that they will win the league, a best price of 6/1 each-way with three places (1/4) doesn’t make sense to me with a betting head on.
If they win the league then it’s quids-in, but if they finish second or third we get paid out on a 6/4 shot, whereas if they finish fourth, fifth or sixth but go up through the play-offs (as they did last time they were in this division) we get a loser.
Therefore, backing FULHAM TO BE PROMOTED at 15/8 ticks all the boxes. We get a better price that way if they finish second, and we get the security blanket of them going up in the play-offs if they do miss out on automatic promotion.
If they were to enter the play-offs, it is highly likely they would be the best team among the four, making this a solid bet. The Infogol model prices the Cottagers at 17/10 to be promoted this season, so the 15/8 is value.
The exact same argument can be made for fellow relegated side West Brom, who boast a fantastic squad and arguably one of the best managers in the division.
Ismaël worked wonders at Barnsley, helped by an analytical culture, to get them in contention for promotion last season, ultimately losing in the semi-final of the play-offs.
He now has more talent at his disposal, with the Baggies’ squad more or less the same to the one that gained promotion back in 19/20.
Grady Diangana is still at The Hawthorns, and he averaged a whopping 0.52 expected goal involvements per 95 minutes (xGI/95 = xG + xA) the last time he was in the second tier, so he will be a huge threat, as will Karlan Grant.
Grant scored 19 goals in his last Championship season with a struggling Huddersfield side that went on to finish 18th, averaging 0.43 xG/95 in a team that averaged just over 1.1 xGF per game.
He will get more service this season and could be the key man to fire the ultimate yo-yo club back into the Premier League.
Matheus Pereira may have something to say about that. He was the key man last season, averaging 0.48 xGI/95, and is still on the books at West Brom, meaning the Baggies have a fearsome front three with some excellent back-up that is proven at this level (Kenneth Zohore, Callum Robinson, Robert Snodgrass, Matt Phillips).
So, the attack is sorted, and they boast incredible talent in midfield and defence. Sam Johnstone remains between the sticks, while Semi Ajayi and Kyle Bartley will be solid at the centre of defence with Cedric Kipre and Matt Clarke as back-up.
Romaine Sawyers is the star man in midfield, with Jake Livermore his partner to break things up. All in all, this squad is shaping up really nicely and they should be contending for the title.
The same logic applies here as it does with Fulham; betting on WEST BROM TO BE PROMOTED rather than to win the league with each way places.
At a best price of 7/1 with three places each-way (1/4), we would be getting 7/4 if West Brom finish second or third and nothing if they place in the remaining play-off places and go up.
The best price of 11/4 for the Baggies to be promoted makes more appeal, and is a value bet according to Infogol’s model, which makes Ismaël’s side 11/5 to go straight back up.
Who will finish in the Championship top six?
Along with Fulham and West Brom, Sheffield United and BOURNEMOUTH have the best chance of promotion in my books, with the quartet boasting arguably the best squads in the Championship – and the best managers.
Of the four, the team I am less certain of being right amongst it are the Blades. Jokanović has a good record at this level, but he takes over a team low on confidence after a dismal 20/21, and also one that will have to adapt to a new style and system after five years under Chris Wilder.
Bournemouth interest me from a betting standpoint. Parker takes over things at the Vitality, and in his only season of Championship management, he guided Fulham to promotion via the play-offs. He inherited a talented bunch on that occasion, and it’s the same this time around, with a squad that rivals those relegated from the Premier League.
In attacking areas, the Cherries can call upon Dominic Solanke, who averaged 0.45 xG/95 last term, Arnaut Danjuma, who netted 17 Championship goals, and the creative pair of David Brooks and Junior Stanislas.
Former Brentford midfielder Emiliano Marcondes joins too after leaving on a free, and makes up a strong mix of attacking players that will be anchored by the likes of Phillip Billing, Jefferson Lerma, Ben Pearson and Lewis Cook.
The Cherries were the fourth best team in the league last season, behind the promoted trio, based on expected goals.
Parker should oversee another season in contention, so it is hugely surprising to see BOURNEMOUTH TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX available at 6/4.
There is no reason as to why Bournemouth won’t at least make the play-offs again, and 6/4 means the bookies give them an implied chance of 40% to finish in the top six. The Infogol model makes the Cherries an odds-on 9/10 (53%) shot to do so, making this a huge value bet and my biggest fancy of the Championship season.
Who will be relegated from the Championship?
Relegation from the Championship has been a difficult one to call over the past few seasons, but usually, at least one of the promoted teams from League One goes straight back to the third tier.
At least one promoted team has been relegated in six of the last eight seasons, with two going down in the same campaign twice.
The relegation market for this season's Championship is an uncertain one given Derby’s predicament and possible points deduction, meaning the bookies have priced the market up WITHOUT DERBY IN IT.
Sky Bet Championship 21/22 relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- 3/1 - Blackpool, Peterborough
- 10/3 - Huddersfield
- 7/2 - Bristol City, Coventry
- 4/1 - Hull, Luton
- 9/2 - Birmingham, Preston
Odds correct as of 20:00 (01/08/21)
So, prices may change dramatically if and when the Rams are included in the market, but for now, Peterborough are the side generally favoured to drop back into League One, followed by fellow promoted side Blackpool.
Those two, along with League One champions Hull, appear to be being underestimated this season, so instead, I’m looking to take on two established Championship clubs.
First up, HUDDERSFIELD. The Terriers put a mini-run together at the back end of last season to pull themselves clear of the drop zone, meaning they weren’t involved in any final-day drama, but based on performance data, they should have been relegated.
Carlos Corberán remains unproven as a manager, and his side ranked 22nd on expected points (xP) in last season's Championship, according to the Infogol model.
They ranked third worst in both attack (1.03 xGF per game) and defence (1.48 xGA per game). Their transfer business is hardly inspiring, so it is hard to see where the improvements will come from.
Somewhat surprisingly you can get 10/3 about HUDDERSFIELD TO BE RELEGATED.
The Infogol model thinks the Terriers should be priced closer to 2/1.
Next up BRISTOL CITY. It’s hard to imagine a team managed by Nigel Pearson being relegated to League One, but that is the reality the Robins are facing unless things change, and drastically.
City ranked as the worst team in the Championship last season on all major xG metrics, meaning they were the worst attacking team, worst defensive team and the team that collected the fewest expected points.
They stayed up due to a fast and unsustainable start, and while you would think Pearson would have improved them in his 14 games in charge, to put it bluntly… he didn’t.
The Robins won two and lost nine under his guidance, performing worse than any team in the division based on xG.
No team had a worse expected points (xP) per game average than Bristol City (0.71) in that period. The next worse being Huddersfield (0.90). They were the only teams in the league to average fewer than 1.15 xP per game after Pearson took over on February 24.
Under Pearson, Bristol City averaged just 0.68 xGF per game and allowed 1.91 xGA per game, utterly woeful numbers.
We can back BRISTOL CITY TO BE RELEGATED at 9/2, which will give us a fantastic run for our money. The price represents an excellent amount of value according to the Infogol model, which makes the same bet a 3/1 shot.
There could be some uplift now Pearson has had more time to work with his players, but there needs to be an almighty turnaround.
I just don't see it.
Sky Bet Championship 21/22: Outright best bets
- 4pts Fulham to be promoted at 15/8 (General)
- 3.5pts West Brom to be promoted at 11/4 (Bet365)
- 5pts Bournemouth to finish in top six at 6/4 (Bet365)
- 2.5pts Huddersfield to be relegated at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
- 2.5pt Bristol City to be relegated at 9/2 (Boylesports)
Odds correct as of 20:00 (01/08/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
