Nick Hext is going low on goals in the return leg of the Sky Bet League One play-off semi-final between Shrewsbury and Charlton.
Shrewsbury Town v Charlton Athletic - Aggregate: 1-0 (Sky Sports Main Event, 1715 BST)
Shrewsbury or Charlton will be the first club to book their place in one of this season's three Sky Bet EFL play-off finals by the end of Sunday evening.
The Shrews are the odds-on favourites at 23/100 to progress from this Sky Bet League One semi-final tie after winning 1-0 in Thursday's opening game between the two teams at The Valley. It was a wonder goal from Jon Nolan to secure the advantage.
I thought Paul Hurst's side were good value for their advantage and I was somewhat surprised by the verdict of Charlton boss Lee Bowyer on the contest.
He told reporters after the match: "I told (my team), 'You didn't deserve to lose'. That's my honest opinion. My side is still better than their side. They beat us but my team is better. We will go there on Sunday and turn things around."
There wasn't much in the game but I think Charlton have it all to do if they are to prove they are a better side than Shrewsbury. They finished the season with a 16-point deficit to the Shropshire club in the standings.
Bowyer also levelled accusations of prolonged time-wasting at the Shrews so it's not unreasonable to assume that he's using his post-match comments to inspire his side and put pressure on the officials, rather than as statements of fact.
The biggest inspiration for Charlton should be their 2-0 win on the road against Shrewsbury at Montgomery Waters Meadow less than a month ago.
Hurst has used that defeat to keep his team grounded and I'm predicting a nervy contest for Sky Sports viewers to enjoy after the final round of Premier League fixtures.
Shrewsbury ended the season with the second-best defensive record in Sky Bet League One, only 39 goals found the back of their net.
That strength will be crucial if they are to get the job and return to Wembley.
The Shrews failed to impress when losing the Checkatrade Trophy final to Lincoln at the start of April but they did get the job done in the semi-finals of that competition by winning 1-0 at home to Yeovil.
That experience of knockout football through the season won't do them any harm and I'm tipping the hosts to advance in a low-scoring game.
Charlton do pose a threat. Josh Magennis caused major trouble with his physical prowess and there's attacking talent to be wary of in Mark Marshall, Tarique Fosu-Henry and Michal Zyro, who are all fresh after sitting on the bench for the majority of the match at The Valley.
Under 1.5 goals in 90 minutes is my main selection at 90 minutes and I can see this contest remaining goalless for quite some time as the tension builds.
Score prediction: Shrewsbury 1-0 Charlton (Sky Bet's odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Under 1.5 goals in 90 minutes at 9/5
Alternative: Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Shrewsbury at 99/20
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Odds correct at 2130 BST (11/05/18)
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