Brighton v Manchester United best bets: Carabao Cup free betting tips, latest odds, preview, kick-off & TV times

Recommended bets

1pt Juan Mata to have 1+ shots on target at 6/4

1pt Juan Mata to have 2+ total shots at 6/4

0.5pt Harry Maguire to score anytime at 11/1

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Brighton v Man United

• Wednesday 19.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 3/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/20

The second meeting between these sides in the space of four days isn't one I can pick a winner from. Had Brighton been a little bigger than their 3/1 price then that could've been the way to go. If it's gun to the head time, United's second string should beat Brighton's, but I'm sitting it out and instead looking elsewhere for value.

The arrival of Bruno Fernandes at Manchester United in January has been widely pinpointed as the moment a 2019/20 season-saving uptick began. It also marked the beginning of the end for Juan Mata as a front-line player at Old Trafford.

In a goalless draw against Wolves on February 1, Fernandes made his Premier League debut alongside the Spanish midfielder. Mata has not started a league game since, but where one door closed for the 32-year-old, another, less glamorous, one opened.

He is now the first name on the team sheet when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is naming his second string 'cup XI'. And while his contribution of two goals in seven starts across the Europa League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup may not leap off the page, Mata is often the focal point of that team.

In last week's 3-0 win at Luton, he had three shots on target - including a successful penalty - and another shot that went wide. To see him at 6/4 to have one shot on target is therefore quite a surprise.

Considering Mata plays in one of the three attacking positions behind a single striker, for him to be priced alongside holding midfielder Scott McTominay makes little sense. Jesse Lingard, who is almost certain to fill another of those attacking midfield roles, is 4/6 in the same market.

Man United's 3-0 win against Luton is deceiving. They lacked pace in their play and were generally pretty poor - other than Mata. He took the man-of-the-match award because he was a constant buzz for them, so to manage five attempts on goal in a team performance lacking any kind of rhythm is impressive.

As the man most likely to be on direct free-kick duty too, 9/2 for 3+ total shots and 12/1 for an extra one are tempters given last week's numbers, but we're asking a lot then. For reliability Mata to have 2+ total shots at 6/4 looks really good.

With Mata as United's designated penalty-taker when Fernandes and Marcus Rashford aren't on the pitch, which they are unlikely to be, his 5/2 anytime scorer odds across the board do stack up. A best price of 21/4 for Mata to score anytime isn't to be sniffed at then.

But what I prefer there is a bet that might never see the light of day, given the unpredictability of Carabao Cup team selections.

I don't like Brighton defensively at set-pieces, and here we're talking about their second string with Graham Potter set to ring the changes as he has in the previous two rounds.

Albion have struggled to contain opposition centre-halves in their opening two home league games, Kurt Zouma scored for Chelsea and Harry Maguire twice caused mayhem for United as he first forced Lewis Dunk into an own goal, before later tempting Neal Maupay into a baffling, decisive handball in the closing seconds.

It's not certain that Maguire will start, but the United captain did play against Luton in round three. The England defender is 11/1 to score anytime which caught my eye along with surprisingly high odds of 5/2 to have one shot on target and 16/1 to have two.

I agonised over this making the staking plan, but ultimately nothing is lost if Maguire doesn't play. If he does, the value is there.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bets:

• 1pt Juan Mata to have 1+ shots on target at 6/4
• 1pt Juan Mata to have 2+ total shots at 6/4
• 0.5pt Harry Maguire to score anytime at 11/1

Odds correct at 1800 BST 29/09/20

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