After picking out 5/2, 11/4 and 7/2 winners across the play-offs last weekend, Michael Beardmore shares his fancies for Sheffield Wednesday's uphill second-leg task at Peterborough.
Football betting tips: League One play-offs
1pt Michael Smith 2+ shots on target at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Aden Flint 1+ shots on target at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
There’s no overstating the difficulty of the monumental task lying before Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough on Thursday night after their first-leg capitulation away to Peterborough.
Simply put, no team in the Football League play-offs has ever overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg – never mind a four-goal disadvantage.
It’s bordering on the impossible and Posh followers have probably already booked their trains and hotels for the final at Wembley at the end of the month.
They are a best-priced 1/25 to qualify while you can get 16/1 on the Owls coming back from the dead and somehow turning this tie around.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Sheff Wed 4/6 | Draw 3/1 | Peterborough 7/2
Over the course of the Sky Bet League One season, Wednesday were the superior team of the two and that’s reflected in the match odds where they are relatively short in every market you can mention.
They will probably restore a bit of pride here but I can’t put my money behind a team that has just been shellacked 4-0, especially when you consider what a high Peterborough will be on.
Indeed, the 4/1 on Posh to win again is tempting, given they could very well take advantage on the break if Wednesday go all-out attack - but Peterborough could well approach this cautiously and second legs in these scenarios are so tough to call.
What we can expect, though, is a response from Darren Moore’s side in front of their own supporters – they will surely ‘have a go’. With that expectation, I’m minded to turn to the shots markets where two prices in particular jump out with Sky Bet.
Firstly, the 2/1 price boost on MICHAEL SMITH TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET IN 90 MINUTES.
The target man is Wednesday’s leading scorer with 17 goals this campaign and since the turn of the year he’s attempted 28 shots in 10 games at Hillsborough.
A whopping 14 of those have come in his last three home games. Wednesday will be looking to their top scorer to conjure up a way back into this tie and 2/1 for him just to test the keeper twice seems juicy.
Another man I must have onside in this market is Owls defender ADEN FLINT – a player who has made a career of being a set-piece goal threat yet is 10/3 with Skybet for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
The 6ft 6in centre-half has averaged 1.1 shots per game during his career and is continuing that kind of ratio with the Owls.
He is as short as 7/5 for an SoT elsewhere so 10/3 is huge value on him to repeat his feat from the first leg – when he had a header saved – considering the expected Owls onslaught should yield plenty of set-plays.
Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough score prediction & best bets
- 1pt Michael Smith 2+ shots on target at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Aden Flint 1+ shots on target at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 Peterborough (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1300 BST (17/05/23)
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