Sheffield Wednesday and Derby kick-off 2021 in the Sky Bet Championship and Tom Carnduff has two best bets at big prices.
Football betting tips: Sheffield Wednesday v Derby
1pt Krystian Bielik to score anytime at 16/1
1pt Matt Clarke to score anytime at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sheffield Wednesday v Derby
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 29/20
2021 is welcomed in by Sheffield Wednesday and Derby in the Sky Bet Championship, two sides who are desperate for points as they look to avoid the drop down to League One. Both have held promotion aspirations in recent seasons, a stark contrast to their current situation.
Wednesday are managerless once again after the shock sacking of Tony Pulis in the week. Despite that, they still managed to secure a 2-1 victory over Neil Warnock's Middlesbrough in their meeting on Tuesday. However, it should be acknowledged that they had five attempts on goal to Boro's 21 and lost the xG battle by a score of 1.16 to 1.94.
Derby were superb in their 4-0 win away at Birmingham and that should give them plenty of confidence for their trip to Hillsborough. They are near enough 6/4 across the board and hold a narrow -0.25 advantage on the Asian Handicap. Based on performances over the past few days, the Rams provide the better value in the two prices.
But instead of taking the outright prices, there are huge odds available in the anytime goalscorer market surrounding two Derby players. The first of which is Krystian Bielik, the midfielder who scored the opening goal of the game in their win at Birmingham.
🏴 #SkyBetChampionship xG Totals and Fairness Ratings 📊
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 31, 2020
— 🦉 #SWFC hang on to a slender lead to record a vital win at home to Boro
— 🐏 #DCFC demolish Birmingham, creating 3.63 xG in a 4-0 away victory
— 🐝 #BrentfordFC edge Bournemouth, moving up to an automatic promotion spot pic.twitter.com/NGq5OfoX56
We say midfielder because he has an ability to play there or in defence. Battling injury, his only appearance of the campaign before December saw him play at centre-back. He rotated between the two last season before a Cruciate injury brought an end to his campaign. It is clear now that he is viewed as a midfielder under current management.
He is looking very good in the holding midfield role but recent tweaks have seen Bielik offered more chances to score from open play. Indeed, in his last three games he has registered a total of three shots, two of which have been on target.
Before that goal at Birmingham, we saw him drive forward into the opposition half. Rather than take on the shot himself, he played in Louie Sibley who fired over. So while Bielik did benefit from a goalkeeping error for his goal, the performance that we saw demonstrated the attacking threat he presents in possession. He will get a few this season if he continues playing in a similar manner.
A quick glance of his heatmap backs up his attacking intent and the 16/1 best price available on him finding the net again here is priced up as if he was playing centre-back, which he shouldn't be based on recent form. The same can be said for the 12/1 available with a few other bookmakers.
One centre-back priced up in a way that does reflect his position, and a price that is perhaps a tad too generous given his attacking threat so far, is Rams defender Matt Clarke. He has played the full 90 minutes in all-but-one game this season and, despite not finding the net, the 20/1 available for a goal anytime could well come in here.
A feature of this Derby team is their ability to strike from set-piece situations. They sit joint-fourth in the Championship in this area (7) and have actually seen more goals scored as a result of set-pieces than open play. That's not to say they are solely reliant on them but it is clearly a strength.
Clarke gives Derby a presence in the air. He averages 5.6 aerial duels won per game which is the highest in the Rams squad and the 13th best average in the division. That battle with Tom Lees (4.4 per game) will be an interesting one but he can win it at least once to get a shot away on goal.
On five occasions this season, Clarke has seen at least two shots, while there have been four across his last two outings. Two of those were on target and he registered Derby's only shot on target in their defeat to Preston. His xG figure of 1.43 for the season from eight shots on target shows that he is unlucky not to have one on his tally.
Derby do look the more attractive of the two outright options, particularly when you consider how many chances Wednesday gave away against Middlesbrough and the Rams' dominant performance in the West Midlands. Instead of taking that 6/4, it's worth seeking out much bigger value in Bielik striking at 16/1 and Clarke at 20/1.
Score prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Sheffield Wednesday v Derby best bets
Opta facts
- Sheffield Wednesday have won just two of their last 22 league matches against Derby (D8 L12), though those two wins have come within their last seven meetings (D2 L3).
- Derby have won on each of their last two league visits to Hillsborough and could win on three consecutive league trips there for the first time since a run of four between 1997 and 2002.
- Sheffield Wednesday haven’t won their first league match of a calendar year in any of their last four years (D2 L2) despite playing at Hillsborough on all four occasions.
- This is the first time Sheffield Wednesday’s first league match in a calendar year is against Derby since 1924, when they won 1-0 in a second tier match.
- Derby County are winless in their last three New Year’s Day league matches (D2 L1), last winning in 2013 vs Middlesbrough.
Odds correct at 0800 GMT (31/12/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
