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Sheffield United vs West Ham betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Sheffield United to win at 5/2 (BetMGM)
0.5pt Sheff Utd to win and Wes Foderingham to be carded at 18/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Sheffield United sit bottom of the table, have won just two of their 20 league games this season and are eight points from safety.
That makes every game a big on if they are to ignite a survival charge, this might be as big as it comes though.
While West Ham are sixth in the league table, they head to Bramall Lane set to be missing a host of key players. Top scorer Jarrod Bowen is doubtful, second top scorer Mohammed Kudus is at AFCON and key creator Lucas Paqueta is out.
Holding midfielder Edson Alvarez and Pablo Fornals are also doubtful, while Nayef Aguerd (AFCON), Michail Antonio (injured) and Said Benrahma (suspended) will take no part for a depleted looking Hammers team.
What are the best bets?
It really looks as though the Blades are in a good spot to pick up a rare Premier League victory in this one then, and at 5/2, I'm happy to back SHEFFIELD UNITED TO WIN.
The absentees are a huge cause for concern for David Moyes' side - who will score their goals and cause an attacking threat? They have played Bristol City twice in a week and really struggled to cause the Championship side many issues, registering 1.43 xGF in the home game and 1.37 in the away replay.
The Hammers away form looks strong on paper (W5 D1 L4), but the underlying data suggests they have been fortunate with their results, looking especially vulnerable defensively (2.13 xGA per away game), ranking fifth worst.
That should give the Blades confidence, as should the fact that they have improved since the re-appointment of Chris Wilder. They have certainly tightened up at the back reducing their goals conceded from 2.8 per game to 1.7, their shots faced from 19.0 to 13.7 and their xGA per game from 2.23 to 1.52.
What makes that even more impressive is that Wilder has faced Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City in his six games - hardly the easiest of schedules.
In their three home games, performances have certainly warranted more. They kept things close against Liverpool in an eventual defeat, beat Brentford and lost to Luton in a game where the xG totals read 2.59-0.63 in the Blades favour.
All in all, I'm happy to take a swing that the Blades can pick up a much-needed win against a vulnerable Hammers team. With a smaller stake, it also looks worthwhile combining a SHEFF UTD WIN with WES FODERINGHAM TO BE CARDED.
He has only been booked twice in 20 league games this season, but his last yellow did come in the narrow 1-0 win over Brentford for timewasting, and similar could occur here if the Blades are just in front late on.
I'm going to round off the staking plan with a bet on UNDER 2.5 GOALS, which will not come as a surprise given what's been discussed already, but the price of 17/20 is too big to turn down.
Sheffield United have kept things very tight under Wilder, with five of his six games going under 2.5 goals, while West Ham look likely to be without a host of attacking players, which should hamper their creativity.
BuildABet @ 42/1
- Sheffield United to win
- Oliver McBurnie to score anytime
- Wes Foderingham to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Oliver McBurnie is Sheffield United's focal point when he's available, and he has scored in each of his last three home games.
Netting against Manchester United, Bournemouth and Luton, he set a Premier League club record, and should get a few chances to add extend his streak here.
Team news
The Blades are without Yasser Larouci and Anis Ben Slimane due to the Africa Cup of Nations, with all of John Egan, Tom Davies, Max Lowe and Chris Basham on the sidelines.
George Baldock, Anel Ahmedhodzic and Auston Trusty could all return.
The Hammers, meanwhile, hope to welcome back Jarrod Bowen. He missed the Bristol City defeat due to an ankle injury but is pushing for a return alongside Edson Alvarez and Pablo Fornals, but the trio remain doubts.
Michail Antonio and Lucas Paqueta are injured, while Mohammed Kudus and Nayef Aguerd are away at the AFCON and Said Benrahma is suspended following his red card against Bristol City in midweek.
Predicted line-ups
Sheff Utd: Foderingham; Ahmedhodzic, Robinson, Trusty; Baldock, Hamer, Souza, Brooks; McAtee; Archer, McBurnie
West Ham: Areola; Zouma, Mavropanos, Cresswell; Coufal, Ward-Prowse, Souček, Emerson; Fornals, Cornet, Ings.
Match facts
- West Ham have won their last three Premier League games against Sheffield United, keeping a clean sheet each time. They’d only won two of their previous 12 league meetings with the Blades before this (D6 L4).
- West Ham have won their last 11 Premier League games against the side starting the day bottom of the table, including a 2-0 win over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture in September. In the competition’s history, only Manchester City (a current run of 12) have had a longer winning streak against sides at the foot of the table.
- Sheffield United have conceded the first goal in a league-high 16 Premier League games this season (D2 L14), while only Tottenham (5) and Arsenal (6) have conceded first less often than West Ham (7).
- West Ham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four Premier League games, despite facing 77 shots across these matches. They last kept five consecutive league clean sheets in December/January 1990-91, while they last did so in the top-flight in November/December 1985.
- After averaging 2.8 goals conceded, 19.0 shots faced, and 2.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game in their 14 Premier League matches under Paul Heckingbottom this season, Sheffield United have since reduced those averages to 1.7 goals conceded, 13.7 shots faced, and 1.52 xGA per game in six league fixtures since Chris Wilder’s return to the club.
- Sheffield United have conceded a league-high 13 Premier League goals from crosses this season. Meanwhile, no player has assisted more goals via a cross this term than West Ham’s James Ward-Prowse (5).
Odds correct 1700 GMT (19/01/24)
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