Football betting tips: Sheffield Wednesday v Rotherham
2pts Sheffield Wednesday to win at 7/5 (Unibet)
After being hit with a 12-point deduction, reduced to six on appeal, and dismissing two managers, Sheffield Wednesday unsurprisingly find themselves embroiled in a relegation battle, sitting second-bottom of the Sky Bet Championship table.
It’s been a turbulent campaign at Hillsborough, but perhaps there’s now light at the end of the tunnel with Darren Moore appointed as the club’s new manager.
Moore is an excellent, shrewd acquisition, and he’ll be aware of the enormity of the task at hand of steering the club to safety with just 14 games remaining.
Wednesday were two goals ahead on Saturday before dramatically capitulating against Luton, with the Hatters completing a spectacular turnaround to win – expected goals (xG): LUT 1.21 – 2.50 SHW.
That was a crushing blow for Wednesday and, while initially hard to accept in the aftermath, there were undoubtedly positives to take from defeat.
Interestingly, that was actually the most xG Wednesday have generated all season, an impressive attacking display for a side that’s averaged 0.88 expected goals for (xGF) this term.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Also, Wednesday played away from home on that occasion, and it’s clear when analysing their underlying numbers that they play better at Hillsborough than when on the road.
They’ve won four of their last five home games, and despite conceding an average of 1.14 expected goals (xGA) per game across that period, they conceded just twice through that run.
The Owls claimed the scalps of Middlesbrough and Derby, among others, through those fixtures, and with Moore now at the helm, they’ll be confident of an assured performance here.
Will Sheff Wed and Rotherham get relegated?
This game could have huge ramifications for both sides’ survival hopes, with Rotherham dragged back into the relegation battle after losing five consecutive games.
The Millers have lost their previous four games 1-0, failing to test their opponents’ back lines in each underwhelming defeat.
Paul Warne’s side have created an average of 1.06 xGF per game across their winless period, creating three big chances (>35%), but only scoring once from those sizeable opportunities.
Rotherham are enduring miserable results at a crucial stage of the season, and they need to swiftly bounce back before they’re left in a disastrous position.
However, their recent lacklustre attacking performances lead me to believe they could fail to trouble the hosts’ defence here and I’m therefore siding with the SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY WIN at 7/5.
Sheffield Wednesday v Rotherham score prediction and best bet
- Sheffield Wednesday to win at 7/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Rotherham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT on 01/03/21
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