Joe Townsend looks at the betting as the Premier League's bottom two meet on Tuesday evening when Sheffield United host West Brom.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Sheffield United/under 3.5 goals at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Semi Ajayi to score anytime at 13/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Semi Ajayi to score first at 29/1 (Unibet)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sheffield Utd v West Brom
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 17/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 7/2
Sheffield United are heading into a fixture as odds-on favourites; wow.
That says a lot for both just how bad West Brom have been this term, and for the last two performances how much Chris Wilder's team - statistically the worst in Premier League history at the halfway stage of a season - have put in.
The Blades caused a seismic shock last midweek by turning Manchester United over 2-1 to leave Old Trafford with all three points, and on another day, John Fleck would have buried a late equaliser at the Etihad and they've have backed it up with a 1-1 draw against Manchester City.
Still, to lose only 1-0 to a City team that has now won 12 straight games was mightily impressive.
What might surprise many is that Sheffield United actually haven't been that bad in 2020/21. Infogol's performance-based table, based on expected goals (xG), has them sitting 18th, a hair's breadth below Fulham.
Reality is very different though, as 13 points separates the Blades and actual 17th-placed Brighton.
Bottom of that very same xG-based table are West Brom, who have failed to show any noticeable uptick since Sam Allardyce replaced Slaven Bilic as manager in December.
They may have conceded late to draw 2-2 with Fulham at the weekend, but it would have been daylight robbery had Albion won that game, one the Cottagers should have had put to bed by half-time.
Given the form of both teams, and the fact the Baggies scabbed their way to a 1-0 over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture, a match that could quite possibly be regarded as this season's most unjust result, I am happy to get behind the hosts.
They are a best price of 10/11 generally to win, but given that 90% of their fixtures since winning promotion to the top flight (59 out of 66) have seen under 3.5 goals, I will happily add that into the mix and take the 11/8 on Sheffield United/under 3.5 goals.
While they may be improving, one thing the Blades seem unable to fix is their set-piece defending.
Harry Maguire headed in at Old Trafford to keep Wilder's men top of the tree for most goals (10) conceded from dead-ball situations this season.
With Big Sam at the Baggies helm, unsurprisingly it's an area of strength for them. Kyle Bartley scored against Fulham, but it's his centre-half colleague Semi Ajayi who I really like the look of on Tuesday thanks to his astonishingly high prices.
He has netted three times in eight games, but in truth it's four in 10 given that his effort against Manchester City ultimately, and unfairly in my book, went down as a Ruben Dias own goal.
This goal-threat is nothing new either. Ajayi was a real handful for Albion and Rotherham in the Sky Bet Championship over the past two seasons, scoring 13 goals.
Against the Premier League's worst set-piece defence, how he is 29/1 to break the deadlock and 13/1 to score anytime (both Unibet) is beyond me.
He is a boosted 18/1 to score a header with Sky Bet, but at those prices I'd rather not narrow my options.
Score prediction: Sheffield Utd 2-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Sheffield Utd v West Brom best bets
- Semi Ajayi to score first at 29/1
- Semi Ajayi to score anytime at 13/1
- Sheffield United/under 3.5 goals at 11/8
Odds correct at 14:00 GMT 01/02/21
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