After three winners from four from last week's Serie A selections, James Cantrill has picked out his best bets from this weekend's slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Ademola Lookman to score in Atalanta v Sampdoria anytime at 8/5 (Unibet)
1pt Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro to be shown a card in Empoli v Torino at 13/8 (bet365)
0.5pts Ademola Lookman to score two in Atalanta v Sampdoria anytime at 9/1 (Boylesports)
0.5pts Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro red card in Empoli v Torino at 33/1 (bet365)
Atalanta v Sampdoria
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: BT Sport 2
- Atalanta 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Sampdoria 8/1
Only Nigerian compatriot Victor Osimhen (13) tops ADEMOLA LOOKMAN in the Capocannoniere charts.
The Charlton Athletic academy graduate has 11 to his name and has had a direct hand in 38% of Atalanta's 37 goals this campaign.
La Dea often frequent the top end of the goalscorer charts in Serie A. By their standards, they had made a meagre start to the season though.
In their opening 14 league games, they only managed to score three or more on one occasion, netting 20 over that period.
But in the last six matches in all competitions, they have bagged 22 goals, hitting eight, five and three in their most recent three games.
Lookman has hit back-to-back-to-back braces over that period, most recently bagging a double against Juventus.
He is really hitting his stride and now has 12 goals in his last 13, making the 8/5 about him to SCORE ANYTIME a serious play.
Sampdoria are among the worst sides defensively in the division.
I Blucerchiati's tally of 32 goals conceded is only trumped by two sides, Cremonese and Salernitana, and the underlying data suggests they have been very fortunate to concede as few as they have recently.
Dejan Stankovic's side have shipped five goals in their past four games, but conceded an xGA of 8.32 with their opposition creating nine 'big chances' (xG over 0.35) over that period.
With that considered, I think ADEMOLA LOOKMAN is also worth a punt to SCORE TWO, a bet that has clicked in his last three appearances.
Score prediction: Atalanta 4-0 Sampdoria (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (27/01/23)
Empoli v Torino
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Saturday
- Empoli 21/10 | Draw 11/5 | Torino 11/8
I touted JEAN DANIEL AKPA AKPRO to be carded in Empoli's trip to the San Siro on Monday and he duly obliged within the first 35 minutes.
It left the midfielder plenty of time to get sent off and with Inter's Milan Skriniar picking up his second card before half-time the 28/1 punt looked like a real runner, but Akpa Akpro did not emerge for the second half.
Aided by that red card, Empoli edged past Inter with 19-year-old Tommaso Baldanzi scoring the only goal of the game.
Those three points moved Gli Azzurri to within one of Torino in Serie A, who sit in eighth.
Each of Il Toro's last three games have ended 0-1, with Saturday's visitors on either side of that result in their last two league games.
With Akpa Akpro's price holding, it is very much a case of rinse and repeat here by tipping Akpa Akpro to BE SHOWN A CARD.
Monday's booking was his seventh card of the campaign, a staggering feat considering two of those were red and he has only started four games!
It took his Serie A tally up to 17 in 51 appearances, giving him a cards per 90 average of 0.84. To put that into perspective, if he was priced purely of that figure, the Ivorian would be 2/10.
Matteo Marcenaro has the whistle at the Carlo Castellani Stadium, a favourable official for cards. In the seven Serie A matches he has overseen over the past few seasons, he has brandished an average of six cards per game.
In the four matches he has taken charge of this season, Marcenaro has sent off four players which is why a JEAN DANIEL AKPA AKPRO RED CARD is worth doubling down on.
Score prediction: Empoli 1-0 Torino (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (27/01/23)
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