Juventus welcome Lazio in Serie A on Monday - Graham Ruthven looks for value with a best bet to consider.
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1pt Juventus to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 2/1
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Juventus v Lazio
- Monday, July 20 at 20:45 on Premier Sports 1
Just a few weeks ago, this looked like being a season-defining clash between two sides going full tilt for the Scudetto. Indeed, Juventus and Lazio occupied the top two positions in Serie A for much of the season, with the latter enjoying an astonishing run of good form which saw them win a record 11 games in succession from October into January. This fixture was pencilled in as a must-watch event.
It might still be a must watch, but the dynamic between the two sides is now rather different. Lazio come into this game on the back of three defeats and a draw from their last four Serie A outings.
That slump all but ended their hopes of finishing their season as Italian champions, with Simone Inzaghi’s side not just falling behind Inter, but Atalanta too. Lazio currently sit fourth in the table.
Juventus, however, haven’t been so untouchable themselves of late. Indeed, the Bianconeri are without a win in their last three games, losing to AC Milan and drawing to Atalanta and Sassuolo.
Perhaps most concerning to Maurizio Sarri will be that Juve have conceded no fewer than nine times over that run. In fact, it’s six games since the Old Lady managed to keep a clean sheet (against Lecce).
There has been over 2.5 goals in each of Juventus’ last six Serie A games (over 2.5 is priced at 8/13 here). They have also scored two or more in each of their last 10 home matches at the Allianz Stadium.
On the flip side, Lazio have drawn a blank in two of the last four league games they have played. Inzaghi’s side have been knocked out of their rhythm since the restart.
One player who has bucked the trend, continuing the strong form he demonstrated before lockdown after the restart, is Cristiano Ronaldo.
Ciro Immobile not so long ago looked destined to finish as Serie A’s top scorer for the 2019/20 season, but Juventus’ Portuguese frontman is now just a single goal behind his Lazio counterpart.
Ronaldo has found the net seven times in his last seven outings, with a number of those goals coming from outside the box. The former Manchester United and Real Madrid man is 8/13 to find the back of the net anytime and 11/5 to open the scoring. Immobile, on the other hand, is 11/8 as an anytime goalscorer, reflecting how his form has dropped off in recent weeks.
Unmarked at the edge of the box, Danilo fires Juve into an early lead! 🔥
— Premier Sports 📺 (@PremierSportsTV) July 15, 2020
A perfect start for the Bianconeri ⚫⚪ pic.twitter.com/4fihwWyVXt
Juve have been one of the best disciplined sides in Serie A this season, with the defending champions picking up just 72 bookings in total.
The hosts are therefore rather short at 7/4 to pick up under 20 booking points, but there could still be some value in that. On average, they are at around that mark per match this season.
With a seven-point cushion at the top of Serie A, it’s highly likely Juventus will clinch a ninth straight Scudetto in the coming weeks. But this is a team that aren’t exactly playing like the champions elect they are. And Lazio don’t look like the side that for large parts of the season posed as their nearest challengers.
Federico Bernardeschi will miss out for Juventus through suspension while Senad Lulic, Joaquin Correa and Lucas Leiva are all sidelined for the visit to Turin through injury.
Jony and Luiz Felipe will be back in the Lazio lineup, though, which will boost their chances ever so slightly. But with Juventus so close to crossing the finishing line, it’s possible they will approach this test with greater focus.
Best bet: Juventus to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 2/1
Odds correct as of 1645 BST on July 18
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