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Scotland vs Portugal betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Scott McTominay 3+ total shots at 9/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Nuno Mendes 1+ assist at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Portugal to win
- Both teams to score
- Scott McTominay 3+ total shots
- Nuno Mendes 1+ assist
After such hope and promise following excellent Nations League and Euro qualifying campaigns, it's fair to say things have taken a very negative turn for Scotland.
It's just one win in 15 for Steve Clarke's side - with that victory coming against 194th ranked Gibraltar.
10 defeats in that time is not a good look. In fairness to the Tartan Army though, seven of those losses have come against teams you would class as 'upper-tier' European nations, but unfortunately for Clarke and co. they face another such side on Tuesday.
Portugal's Euro campaign was also disappointing, a quarter-final penalty shoot-out defeat to France, but they have picked themselves up well, winning all three Nations League games so far.
What are the best bets?
I don't think I'm on my own in saying that Scotland's right hand side is underwhelming.
It looked weak and vulnerable at the Euros, and has continued to do so in the Nations League. They can be got at down that flank, and Portugal possess two extremely dangerous outlets - Rafael Leao and NUNO MENDES.
The latter plays in a much more advanced role for his nation than his club (PSG), with Leao drifting infield onto his right foot providing Mendes ample space to overlap.
This has led to him registering two assists in three Nations League games - including in the reverse fixture - and his price of 4/1 for 1+ ASSIST looks a lively runner on Tuesday.
Mendes has averaged 0.34 expected assists (xA) per 90 and interestingly 2.67 touches in the opposition box, again highlighting his advanced role.
For more context around Scotland's struggles down their right: in the Euros Germany's left-back generated 0.33 xA and their left winger scored and Switzerland created four chances down their left side (0.25 xA).
In the Nations League, Poland's left wing-back scored and won two penalties, both of Portugal's left-sided players (Mendes and Leao) registered assists (0.47 + 0.59 xA) and Croatia created two chances down their left flank.
It's a problem area for the Scots, and hopefully for us it's Mendes who takes advantage.
Steve Clarke's shining light continues to be SCOTT MCTOMINAY, and his price to take 3+ TOTAL SHOTS looks large at 9/5 - it's 10/11 in places.
Playing in an advanced role, McTominay has been shot-happy to say the least during these Nations League matches, firing 11 shots, scoring twice.
He had five attempts at home to Poland and took four of Scotland's five shots in Portugal, with his shoot-on-sight approach combined with his set-piece threat meaning this bet should go close.
And, while some may view the Nations League as a hindrance, it does matter. Scotland are currently bottom of Group 1 meaning they would be relegated to League B, making every game crucial if they are to survive.
They will have a right go at a Portugal side who have shown defensive vulnerabilities in their three outings, conceding in all three and shipping 13, 5 and 12 shots in their three matches.
Team news
Scotland have no injury concerns ahead of this game, which could see Steve Clarke name the same XI that narrowly lost to Croatia.
The only possible switch would be Lyndon Dykes out for Che Adams, who has started life in Italy with Torino very well (six goal involvements).
It's the same with Portugal, with Roberto Martinez likely to name same side that beat Poland at the weekend.
Should Martinez shuffle the pack, Diogo Jota could come in for Pedro Neto and Joao Palhinha could replace Ruben Neves.
Predicted line-ups
Scotland: Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hanley, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; Doak, McTominay, Christie; Adams
Portugal: Costa; Dalot, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Silva, R. Neves; Jota, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo
Match facts
- Scotland have lost each of their last four matches against Portugal with the Scots only currently on a longer run of defeats against Belgium (6 – last meeting 2019) and Brazil (6 – last meeting 2011).
- Portugal won 3-1 on their last away trip to Scotland in an October 2018 friendly, but have never previously won back-to-back such games (W1 D2 L4 prior).
- Scotland have lost each of their last four matches in all competitions, each by a margin of a single goal. Never before in the nation’s history have they lost five successive games.
- Portugal have won each of their last seven competitive away games by an aggregate score of 22-1. They have never won eight such fixtures in a row before in their history.
- Scotland are without a win in their last five home matches in all competitions (D2 L3), the joint-longest such run in their history after also going five without winning between November 2007 to November 2008.
- Portugal have won 15 and lost just one of their last 18 competitive internationals (D2), with that sole defeat coming to Georgia at EURO 2024 (0-2).
- Of Ryan Christie’s seven goals for Scotland, four have come in the UEFA Nations League (57%). Indeed, Christie has more goal involvements in the competition (8 – 4 goals, 4 assists) than any other player for Scotland.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in all three of Portugal’s UEFA Nations League games in 2024-25. The forward last netted in four successive international appearances in June 2021.
Odds correct at 1420 BST (14/10/24)
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